Cyber-Raga Posted October 17 Posted October 17 I believe she has a good chance to win. She once again delivered with that Fox interview.
Ciccone's Cheeks Posted October 17 Posted October 17 Uhh...ya vibes are absolutely a potent (& more so than not) REAL thing. I'm at a 50/50 coin flip w/ how this this ends up. No idea. A LOT of pro Trump shiate being hosed out there (strategically imo) to flood the zone by the likes of Elon etc...& even many others who are usually 'legit' w/ their polling or whatever esp. on betting sites. At the min. it's to condition the left & the masses to feel demoralized again like 2016 but could end up maybe a reverse 2016 kind of thing (where if she wins) the far insane right could have 'ammo' for all the fvckery in contesting the results. But I always to go back to that election predictor Allan Lichtman. HE & basically only he predicted Trump would win in 2016 & wouldn't budge. He's essentially doing the same now w/ Kamala. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/allan-lichtman-election-win/680258/
Ciccone's Cheeks Posted October 17 Posted October 17 6 hours ago, Cyber-Raga said: I believe she has a good chance to win. She once again delivered with that Fox interview. I feel it was an absolute waste of time lol. Nothing at all gained or lost for both sides. Forgotten w/in days.
elijah Posted October 17 Posted October 17 1 hour ago, Ciccone's Cheeks said: I feel it was an absolute waste of time lol. Nothing at all gained or lost for both sides. Forgotten w/in days. The part about the enemy within slayed. She totally smacked that Brett across the face for his fuckery and had her viral moment. I do hope (and feel like) it helped her, because she sounded authentic, concerned, considerate, strong and on point in this interview. What a woman!
Nikki Posted October 17 Posted October 17 trump is winning the polls for the electoral college. also, while the right has spread a lot of fake news, so has the left. and Kamala needs to stop name dropping war criminals who support her.
Nikki Posted October 17 Posted October 17 this is what the left has to focus on in regards to trump.. he failed and didn't answer any questions.
Beastialg Posted October 17 Posted October 17 53 minutes ago, Nikki said: this is what the left has to focus on in regards to trump.. he failed and didn't answer any questions. I think most people are very shallow with politics and only care about how much money they have on their wallet, or how much groceries cost. Is inflation that terrible in USA? And was economy that great with Trump? because that's the only explanation I have for him winning again.
whyme? Posted October 17 Posted October 17 45 minutes ago, Beastialg said: I think most people are very shallow with politics and only care about how much money they have on their wallet, or how much groceries cost. Is inflation that terrible in USA? And was economy that great with Trump? because that's the only explanation I have for him winning again. Inflation has come down considerably under Biden, because of smart choices his administration made. The stock market is at its peak now. The US has avoided a recession unlike several other major western countries this year. Wages are up. And unemployment is at a low. Overall, it's a very strong economy during Biden. For some reason, this message isn't getting out, unfortunately.
KalamazooJay Posted October 18 Posted October 18 22 hours ago, Nikki said: trump is winning the polls for the electoral college. also, while the right has spread a lot of fake news, so has the left. and Kamala needs to stop name dropping war criminals who support her. This. Look, I will happily and giddily vote for Kamala. She has really impressed me with how she's run her campaign and seems to have truly found her voice as a candidate. That being said, I can't understand why she (and some on the left) are actively promoting and seeking out the endorsements of Bush acolytes, Republicans, and the fucking Cheney's of all people. I don't give a damn how anti Trump Liz Cheney is now. That does NOT erase her past and her war mongering and the fact she sold her own lesbian sister up the river when it was politically convenient. She's a ghoul and so is her awful father. It's not like they have a constituency or base of people who say 'Oh, Liz and Dick are voting for Kamala? Well, ME TOO!!' It's a waste of time. Ask Hillary how well it worked out for her when she was up there courting anti Trumpers. The fact of the matter is, the VAST majority of the these so called 'anti Trump' conservatives ultimately come home to him on election day. Like, are progressives going to STOP courting this extremely small sliver of republicans and focus on their OWN base. Mystifying.
elijah Posted October 18 Posted October 18 5 minutes ago, KalamazooJay said: This. Look, I will happily and giddily vote for Kamala. She has really impressed me with how she's run her campaign and seems to have truly found her voice as a candidate. That being said, I can't understand why she (and some on the left) are actively promoting and seeking out the endorsements of Bush acolytes, Republicans, and the fucking Cheney's of all people. I don't give a damn how anti Trump Liz Cheney is now. That does NOT erase her past and her war mongering and the fact she sold her own lesbian sister up the river when it was politically convenient. She's a ghoul and so is her awful father. It's not like they have a constituency or base of people who say 'Oh, Liz and Dick are voting for Kamala? Well, ME TOO!!' It's a waste of time. Ask Hillary how well it worked out for her when she was up there courting anti Trumpers. The fact of the matter is, the VAST majority of the these so called 'anti Trump' conservatives ultimately come home to him on election day. Like, are progressives going to STOP courting this extremely small sliver of republicans and focus on their OWN base. Mystifying. Because she tries to establish a huge coalition and tries to attract the Republicans who still believe in democracy, no matter how despicable.
cardiganstarlet Posted October 19 Posted October 19 8 hours ago, KalamazooJay said: Like, are progressives going to STOP courting this extremely small sliver of republicans and focus on their OWN base. Mystifying. Exactly. Even if she gets in, NOTHING will change over the next four years. Then the next election cycle will all be built on the same narratives again. America has incredible structural issues that it refuses to address. I’m so over how they throw around words like extreme left and socialism - they have no idea what they’re talking about.
elijah Posted October 19 Posted October 19 4 hours ago, cardiganstarlet said: Exactly. Even if she gets in, NOTHING will change over the next four years. Then the next election cycle will all be built on the same narratives again. America has incredible structural issues that it refuses to address. I’m so over how they throw around words like extreme left and socialism - they have no idea what they’re talking about. And what will HE change apart from making USA more divided, nationalistic etc.
Pieciolot Posted October 19 Posted October 19 5 hours ago, elijah said: And what will HE change apart from making USA more divided, nationalistic etc. More tax cuts for super rich.
promise to try Posted October 19 Posted October 19 only good thing: madonna will leave the USA and will release a super interesting non starproducerish album
elijah Posted October 19 Posted October 19 1 hour ago, promise to try said: only good thing: madonna will leave the USA and will release a super interesting non starproducerish album not another MadameX
Confessit Posted October 19 Posted October 19 4 minutes ago, Shaun said: Polls mean nothing. Don't pay attention to them. I know what you mean. I have a question about previous American elections….. Have the polls been right about who became the president or wrong?
Shaun Posted October 19 Posted October 19 7 minutes ago, Confessit said: Have the polls been right about who became the president or wrong? That's a very tricky question. Even now, there are current polls that show Trump in the lead and current polls that show Harris in the lead. And it will flip-flop about ten more times before November 5. I'm sure polls have been close to spot-on at times, but it's not because they're reliable. It's because they got lucky. There are also reports that both Georgia and North Carolina have shattered previous early voting records. This is usually a good sign for Democrats. However, Trump encouraged early voting in 2024 as opposed to discouraging it in 2020. So who really knows? Just VOTE, all you Americans!
Confessit Posted October 19 Posted October 19 3 minutes ago, Shaun said: That's a very tricky question. Even now, there are current polls that show Trump in the lead and current polls that show Harris in the lead. And it will flip-flop about ten more times before November 5. I'm sure polls have been close to spot-on at times, but it's not because they're reliable. It's because they got lucky. There are also reports that both Georgia and North Carolina have shattered previous early voting records. This is usually a good sign for Democrats. However, Trump encouraged early voting in 2024 as opposed to discouraging it in 2020. So who really knows? Just VOTE, all you Americans! I absolutely agree! But in past elections in America did the polls suggest the next president? Or were there major shocks? I mean everyone mostly is expecting Trump to do it (as most polls are suggesting). I mean was Obama expected to win was George Bush expected to win? For the Americans in here…..?
Kurt420 Posted October 19 Posted October 19 In national polls, Harris tends to have the lead but only by very narrow margins. If you break it down by swing states, she has a narrow lead in the "Rust Belt" but he has a narrow lead in the "Sun Belt". The only thing we can deduce from any of the polls is it's neck and neck. As evidenced in this very thread though, Trump's team is doing a very good job of making it seem like he's crushing the polls across the board. That's not the case for either of them though. The "vibes" though feel like Harris has the upper hand. She definitely has the organic enthusiasm of a broad coalition but he has the fanaticism of a smaller group. Will the enthusiastic majority send her to victory? Or will the minority, insurrectionist cult push him to victory in all the right areas (no matter what the voters actually decide)? So again, even from a "vibes" aspect it's basically neck and neck. One thing to consider though is that if he does lose, there's a chance he's going to jail in the future and he more than anyone knows that. As we've already seen, he's gotten more unhinged and more desperate this month than even last month so there's no doubt that as Election Day nears, his erratic behavior is going to only get worse as he begins to realize this little game of his may be coming to an end. This man is 78 years old and never faced accountability for anything in his life. That's got to be a scary feeling. I wouldn't underestimate what a desperate, pathetic, little old man in mental decline will do if he feels like he's getting pushed into a corner. Not to be all doom and gloom but Jan 6th may end up looking like a dress rehearsal.....but this time, they know what they need to do to get the results they want. The electors in a small city in my state (not a swing state btw) have already said they won't be certifying the votes until they're hand counted. Now let's just imagine that scenario in large cities in many swing states. Sounds like the recipe for a Constitutional crisis to me. Hopefully Dems are prepared.
Nightshade Posted October 19 Posted October 19 I hope you all realize that many polls are slanted to help goose fundraising numbers, not to necessarily show who is really winning on the ground. I am not saying all polls are untrustworthy, but it has become a veritable cottage industry unto itself, and a lot of people get paid money to have a poll look a certain way so they can scare people into donating. It sucks that we can't trust anything anymore, but this is what happens when there is a profit motive to everything. The reasons I am cautiously optimistic is that Trump fatigue is real among the moderate GOP wing (hence her focus on them and not on the left wing of her party), Harris has a superior ground game and more money yet to invest, and abortion is on the ballot in several states where it could help her. Abortion ballot measures have won (even in deep red states), so there will be a lot of independents who vote for her along with reproductive freedom measures. Also, just to comment on the courting of GOP voters - I realize it is morally questionable and it does not excuse the past behavior, but we all have to come together to some degree or there is going to be a complete lunatic in charge come January 2025. If Trump wins, I suspect there will be crimes far worse. That said, I think Harris will probably govern as a centrist anyway. She won't have large enough numbers in the Senate (if we win that at all) or the House to pass anything truly groundbreaking. She is going to need moderate Republican support there too.
svperstar Posted October 20 Posted October 20 On 10/19/2024 at 8:37 AM, Confessit said: I know what you mean. I have a question about previous American elections….. Have the polls been right about who became the president or wrong? Pretty much most of the polls have been wrong since 2012. Mitt Romney was projected to win late in the game yet he easily lost to Obama. Same in 2016, which gave Clinton a 91 percent edge over Trump. The fact is that pollsters target people with landlines who still pick up their phones even when caller IDs list them as unidentified. That's mostly the older demographic, not the younger sorts who only use a cellphone and wouldn't answer numbers they don't recognize. And don't even get me started on internet polls which are easily manipulated and allows people to vote more than once if they have different IPs (which are so easy to manipulate for anyone online that has half a brain anyway). Translation: polls are fucking bullshit.
Confessit Posted October 20 Posted October 20 8 minutes ago, svperstar said: Pretty much most of the polls have been wrong since 2012. Mitt Romney was projected to win late in the game yet he easily lost to Obama. Same in 2016, which gave Clinton a 91 percent edge over Trump. The fact is that pollsters target people with landlines who still pick up their phones even when caller IDs list them as unidentified. That's mostly the older demographic, not the younger sorts who only use a cellphone and wouldn't answer numbers they don't recognize. And don't even get me started on internet polls which are easily manipulated and allows people to vote more than once if they have different IPs (which are so easy to manipulate for anyone online that has half a brain anyway). Translation: polls are fucking bullshit. Thank you very insightful to read!!!!
Cyber-Raga Posted October 20 Posted October 20 32 minutes ago, svperstar said: Pretty much most of the polls have been wrong since 2012. Mitt Romney was projected to win late in the game yet he easily lost to Obama. Same in 2016, which gave Clinton a 91 percent edge over Trump. The fact is that pollsters target people with landlines who still pick up their phones even when caller IDs list them as unidentified. That's mostly the older demographic, not the younger sorts who only use a cellphone and wouldn't answer numbers they don't recognize. And don't even get me started on internet polls which are easily manipulated and allows people to vote more than once if they have different IPs (which are so easy to manipulate for anyone online that has half a brain anyway). Translation: polls are fucking bullshit. Amen
zephyralexxx Posted October 21 Posted October 21 6 hours ago, svperstar said: Pretty much most of the polls have been wrong since 2012. Mitt Romney was projected to win late in the game yet he easily lost to Obama. Same in 2016, which gave Clinton a 91 percent edge over Trump. The fact is that pollsters target people with landlines who still pick up their phones even when caller IDs list them as unidentified. That's mostly the older demographic, not the younger sorts who only use a cellphone and wouldn't answer numbers they don't recognize. And don't even get me started on internet polls which are easily manipulated and allows people to vote more than once if they have different IPs (which are so easy to manipulate for anyone online that has half a brain anyway). Translation: polls are fucking bullshit. Same here, in my country. That's why people were shocked every time after a new president was announced.
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