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CHART COMMENTARY from JAMES MASTERTON

21/04/08

Here's a secret for you (even though it isn't). 90% of chartwatching is based around precedent, noting how a single is expected to behave in the sales market, based on the way similar singles have moved in the past. As satisfying as it is to watch a record do exactly as expected, it is even more fascinating when a single moves in a way that is utterly unexpected and better yet if this is almost totally without precedent.

Step forward then Madonna whose single '4 Minutes' has spent the past month bouncing around the Top 10 as a popular but unremarkable download track but which this week blasts away all competition to make a three place leap to Number One, dethroning Estelle's 'American Boy' one short of its record-setting five week target in the process. What makes this all the more remarkable is that Madonna's sales surge has come without the benefit of physical sales, '4 Minutes' only this week (April 21) becoming available on CD. No download-only single has ever climbed to Number One after such a long period in the market, particularly when at one point it had fallen as low as Number 8. Plenty of others may well do just that in the future, but all will be following the benchmark of sales growth that Madonna (and of course JT) have this week established.

All this is before we have even noted that this is of course another Number One hit for Madonna. It is her 13th in total, a figure that keeps her in sixth in the all-time table and requiring just one more to draw level with Cliff Richard and Westlife who share fourth place with 14th chart-toppers apiece. It is her first Number One single for just over two years and ensures that her forthcoming new album 'Hard Candy' will be the fourth of the five albums she has released in the last decade to have its introductory track top the singles charts. Her list of Number One records now spans almost 23 years, dating back to the arrival of 'Into The Groove' at the top in August 1985. No other female act in history can claim such a span of longevity. Even Kylie, her most currently active challenger can only claim a 15 year span of Number One hits, her last chart-topper having been four and a half years ago.

We should of course not overlook the co-credit on '4 Minutes' for Justin Timberlake who can thus also claim a Number One hit. It is his third credited appearance on a chart-topping single albeit now the second as a featured guest star. He was last at the top exactly a year ago this week on Timbaland's 'Give It To Me', his only chart-topper in his own right being 'Sexyback' which had a week at the summit in 2006. Such is his deep-rooted association with a certain superstar producer, it seems almost a needless aside to note that all three of his Number One singles have had Timbaland at the helm.

Finally, for those whose taste in chart facts leans to the quirky side, it is worth noting that '4 Minutes' is the second single in just over a year to feature a numerical digit in the title, hard on the heels of charity single 'I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles)' which hit the top in April last year. Although a rare occurrence, such numerically titled singles do seem top the chart with reasonable regularity. In the last decade we have had '5 Colours In Her Hair' by McFly and '3AM' from Busted (both 2004), Mambo No.5 (twice thanks to Bob The Builder in 2001 and Lou Bega in 1999), '7 Days' from Craig David in 2000 and '9pm (Til I Come)' from ATB once again in 1999. One could also argue the case for 'Three Lions 98' to be included but as the number was merely to indicate the date of the remix rather than being part of the title of the song it probably does not count. Incidentally only one Number One hit has ever been known by a number rather than a name, said track being '19' by Paul Hardcastle from 1985 which I'm fond of pointing out ranks as the shortest ever title for a hit single given that it actually contains no letters at all.

As predicted on these pages last week, three of the big physical releases of the week make Top 10 inroads. Already around was September's 'Cry For You' which duly advances four places to Number 5. Hard on their heels are Usher and Young Jeezy with 'Love In This Club', the single surging 14-6 after three weeks as a Top 20 hit based on download sales.

The biggest climber of all however is 'The Age Of The Understatement' from the Last Shadow Puppets which surges 24-9 to give the group a Top 10 hit on their debut almost from nowhere. The level of interest is perhaps less surprising when you consider the personnel behind the name, the group being a side project of Alex Turner from the Arctic Monkeys and Miles Kane from The Rascals. It is the culmination of a friendship that stretches back to 2005 when Kane's old band The Little Flames supported the Arctics on tour. 'The Age Of The Understatement' is an epic sounding single, drenched in orchestration and layered guitars and with the voices of the two men combining gloriously in a mid 60s-esque harmony. Side projects work best when they afford the participants the chance to make music that just wouldn't fit with their usual style. The music of the Last Shadow Puppets is as far removed from the Arctics sound as it is possible to get and you cannot help but feel that the world would have been a poorer place if we had never had the chance to hear it.

Making moves in the Top 20 are Scouting For Girls who are still climbing with the fully available 'Heartbeat' which is now up at Number 14. Britney Spears looks on the verge of having her smallest ever chart hit after the physical release of 'Break The Ice' can only stagger to Number 15. Before today she has only ever had two of her singles miss the Top 10, the smallest being 'I Love Rock And Roll' which limped to Number 13 in late 2002.

Hottest download only track of the moment (aside from Madonna) appears to be will.i.am's 'Heartbreaker' which rises 29-18 this week, still some weeks away from its planned May 5 release. The early success of the single is a rather curious state of affairs simply because it is being promoted on the basis of a version that isn't yet available for purchase. Initially a track from his 'Songs About Girls' album, the UK release of the single is set to be a remixed version featuring a video and minor vocal contribution from Cheryl Cole of Girls Aloud. Whilst the video for the single (in which she appears prominently) is in rotation already, the remix will not be available for purchase until its official May 5 release date. Thus all sales of the track to date have been for the Cole-free album version, making 'Heartbreaker' yet another example of a single becoming a hit in the wrong version several weeks ahead schedule. See also 'Something Good 08' and most notably Kelly Rowland's 'Work' which made the Top 40 in January even before the single remix had hit the online stores.

Not every physical release this week managed to hit the heights. Goldfrapp make a rather disappointing Number 25 with 'Happiness' but the biggest shock of the week is reserved for Kanye West's 'Flashing Lights' which became a physical single this week but which has only limped to Number 29 on the singles chart.

Down at the bottom end of the listings, the most extraordinary performance of the week is that of 2007 American Idol winner Jordin Sparks. The first "Idol" winner since Kelly Clarkson to have her singles promoted in Europe, she is already making slow but sure progress with American Top 10 hit 'Tattoo' which rises to Number 50 this week. Few expect it to be a huge hit, simply because it has been released as a download only single and will not be granted a physical release. Combine that with the vocal chord problems which have forced her to cancel a whole string of performances back home and you can perhaps understand that the UK market is not the highest priority for her people at the moment. What makes her chart presence more extraordinary this week is the unexpected appearance of her current American single 'No Air' which arrives on the chart at Number 58. A duet with Chris Brown (and in truth a single with far more chart prospects than 'Tattoo'), its surge in sales is almost certainly down to the screening here of her performance on the Idol results show a week ago. This is the sort of thing that causes record labels to have kittens. Whilst 'Tattoo' was a low-key way to introduce her to the British public, 'No Air' is pencilled in for a proper release later in the summer when there is every expectation that the Chris Brown factor will turn it into a major hit. Here it is as a chart single already, treading on the toes of her existing release and at a time when she is physically unable to promote it anyway. Who'd be a marketeer?

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Music Week

Madonna strikes it lucky with 13th number one

13:06 | Monday April 21, 2008

By Alan Jones

Madonna scores her 13th number one it total and her fifth of the 21st century, as 4 Minutes – her collaboration with Justin Timberlake – climbs to the summit on sales of 40,634. The track, due for physical release today (21st), dethrones Estelle and Kanye West’s American Boy, which slips to number two on sales of 33,728 after four weeks in pole position.

4 Minutes has spent longer in the chart before reaching the top than any of Madonna’s 61 previous hits, beating the four weeks that La Isla Bonita took to reach the summit in 1985. One of Madonna’s singles took three weeks to reach the top, and six of them took a fortnight. No Madonna single entered at number one until 2000, since when all five of her chart-toppers prior to 4 Minutes did so.

Madonna now trails only Elvis Presley, The Beatles (collectively and individually), Cliff Richard and Westlife in career haul of number ones. Her span of number ones, from 1985's Into The Groove to 4 Minutes, is more than 23 years, the longest of any female solo artist.

4 Minutes is partner Justin Timberlake’s third number one, following 2006’s SexyBack and 2007’s Give It To Me collaboration with Nelly Furtado and Timbaland. Timberlake, Timbaland and Danja all co-wrote 4 Minutes with Madonna.

Madonna’s surge, and the continuing strength of Estelle and Kanye West means that Sam Sparro’s Black & Gold slips 2-3, despite increasing sales by 8.5% week-on-week to 30,774 – the second highest level for a number three placing thus far in 2008.

Madonna has had only two duets among her 62 hits to date, and her chart-topping duet with Justin Timberlake comes more than four years after she partnered his former girlfriend Britney Spears for the number two hit, Me Against the Music. Meanwhile, Spears’ 21st chart single, Break The Ice, moves only 23-15 on sales of 9,961, following physical release. Unless it can conjure up an unexpected leap next week, it will be only Spears’ third single to miss the Top 10, and her lowest charting hit, replacing I Love Rock ‘n’ Roll (number 13, 2002).

While Kanye West’s Estelle collaboration is finally in decline, the prolific rapper increases his haul of Top 40 hits to 15 in four years, with Flashing Lights – which also features Dwele – advancing 41-29 on sales of 5,003, following physical release. It’s the fourth hit single from West’s current album Graduation, following Stronger (number one), Good Life (number 23, with T-Pain) and Homecoming (number nine, with Chris Martin). The album itself slips 34-37, having improved 61 notches in the previous fortnight. It sold 4,252 copies last week, to take its 33 week sales tally to 319,029 – not a bad total in the current climate but well down on his two previous albums, The College Dropout (2004) and Late Registration (2005), which have sold 631,743 and 721,999 copies, respectively.

With physical release a fortnight away, In My Arms – the third single from Kylie Minogue’s current album X - debuts at number 69 on sales of 1,826. It’s the lowest debut of Minogue’s 20 year chart career, and increases her haul of Top 75 hits to 43. Previous X singles, 2 Hearts and Wow, peaked at four and five respectively, with the latter single’s sales of 150,512 making it Minogue’s biggest selling single since Love At First Sight in 2002 (180,564 sales). X improves 71-66 on sales of 2,751, lifting its career haul to 407,183.

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Billboard

Madonna Racks Up 13th U.K. No. 1 Single

April 21, 2008, 10:45 AM ET

Paul Sexton, London

madonna_07l.gif

Madonna landed her 13th chart-topping U.K. single with "4 Minutes" (Warner Bros.) featuring Justin Timberlake yesterday (April 20), while British rock band the Kooks scored an instant No. 1 with their sophomore Virgin album, "Konk."

The Madonna track is her 60th U.K. top 10 single, according to data from the Official U.K. Charts Company, and she now pulls away as the female solo artist with the most No. 1 hits in British chart history, with Kylie Minogue next at seven.

Estelle's "American Boy" (Homeschool/Atlantic), which topped the singles survey for the previous four weeks, fell to No. 2, and Sam Sparro's "Black & Gold" (Island/Universal) fell 2-3. There were top 10 climbs for September's "Cry For You" (Hard2Beat), up 9-5; "Love in This Club" (LaFace/Sony BMG) by Usher featuring Young Jeezy, 14-6; and "The Age of the Understatement" (Domino) by the Last Shadow Puppets, featuring Alex Turner from Arctic Monkeys and Miles Kane of the Rascals, 24-9.

In the top 20, Scouting For Girls climbed 19-14 with "Heartbeat" (Epic), Britney Spears rose 23-15 with "Break the Ice" (Jive/Sony BMG) and will.i.am's "Heartbreaker" (A&M/Universal), the U.K. version of which features Cheryl Cole of Girls Aloud, jumped 29-18.

The Kooks' No. 1 debut eclipses the No. 2 start of their January 2006 album "Inside In/Inside Out," which has gone on to sell 2 million copies worldwide, according to Virgin. The new set contains "Always Where I Need To Be," which two weeks ago became the Kooks' highest-ranked U.K. single at No. 3, and the next single, "Sway."

Leona Lewis' U.S. chart-topping "Spirit" album (Syco Music/Sony BMG) moved back 5-2 in its 23rd U.K. chart week, as Mariah Carey's "E=MC2" (Def Jam/Universal) debuted at No. 3. That's Carey's highest album ranking in Britain since "Butterfly" reached No. 2 in 1997. "Touch My Body," the first single from the new release, dipped 5-7 in the U.K. this week.

Duffy's "Rockferry" (A&M/Universal) fell 1-4 on the new chart, which featured a No. 6 debut for Elliot Minor's self-titled Warner Bros. debut. The band from the English city of York reached No. 22 last week with its single "Parallel Worlds."

Duffy is all-powerful on Billboard's pan-European sales charts, rising 3-1 on European Top 100 Albums with "Rockferry" and 2-1 on Eurochart Hot 100 Singles with "Mercy."

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Guest marsha
USHER? a threat to MADONNA? in the UK?

MADONNA just unleashed her physical singles today in the UK... she will dominate for the next 3 weeks I tell you...

when 2 gay icons in competition, Madonna always prevails

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Guest SuperPop

there is no way Usher could be no1 this week...he is only no6 in Itunes...and the physical release is next week..next week is a possibility (if digital sales pick up ofcourse)

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Tuesday Top 40 mids from MW

Singles

1 Madonna

2 Sam Sparro

3 Estelle

4 September

5 Flo-Rida

Top 10

Will I Am

Wiley

Scouting For Girls

Top 30

Cahill

Adele

MGMT

Pendulum

Top 40

Nelly

Wombats

Albums

1 Last Shadow Puppets

2 Kooks

3 Leona Lewis

4 Duffy

5 Whitesnake

Top 10

OneRepublic

Adele

Top 15

Amy Winehouse - B2B - Deluxe

Girls Aloud

Top 20

Britney Spears

Top 30

Michael Buble

Chris De Burgh

Top 40

Gabriella Cilmi

Feeling

Kanye West

Robyn

NO SALES INFORMATION YET

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:wow:

And the fact that Usher still isn't top 5 given all the coverage it's getting is more than HOPEFULL but as Dr Lecter said, NEVER underestimate the power of the Chavs - especially when the phsyical is out next week - do shoplifted copies count as chart returns?

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Sales:

1 4 MINUTES MADONNA FT JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE 16,992

2 BLACK & GOLD SAM SPARRO 9,918

3 AMERICAN BOY ESTELLE FT KANYE WEST 8,555

4 CRY FOR YOU SEPTEMBER 7,376

5 LOW FLO RIDA FT T-PAIN 6,652

6 LOVE IN THIS CLUB USHER FT YOUNG JEEZY 5,303

7 MERCY DUFFY 3,891

8 HEARTBREAKER WILL I AM 3,661

9 WEARING MY ROLEX WILEY 3,652

10 HEARTBEAT SCOUTING FOR GIRLS 3,613

Edited by Mr Ciccone
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:wow:

And the fact that Usher still isn't top 5 given all the coverage it's getting is more than HOPEFULL but as Dr Lecter said, NEVER underestimate the power of the Chavs - especially when the phsyical is out next week - do shoplifted copies count as chart returns?

does he have a video yet?

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Sales:

1 4 MINUTES MADONNA FT JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE 16,992

2 BLACK & GOLD SAM SPARRO 9,918

3 AMERICAN BOY ESTELLE FT KANYE WEST 8,555

4 CRY FOR YOU SEPTEMBER 7,376

5 LOW FLO RIDA FT T-PAIN 6,652

6 LOVE IN THIS CLUB USHER FT YOUNG JEEZY 5,303

7 MERCY DUFFY 3,891

8 HEARTBREAKER WILL I AM 3,661

9 WEARING MY ROLEX WILEY 3,652

10 HEARTBEAT SCOUTING FOR GIRLS 3,613

Looks as if she will finish on 60k by the end of the week.

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Guest Danny86
Oh DEAR - this means that her IMPECCABLE chart run is going to be fucked up by this.

There might be some other debuts during the album release week, caused by individual downloads of album tracks.

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Oh DEAR - this means that her IMPECCABLE chart run is going to be fucked up by this.

It doesn't matter if it happens with tracks that will be future singles, as they can improve their peak later on. But I think Candy Shop has the best chance to sneak into top 75 because it is the first one on the track listing.

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It's so retarded letting ANY track chart on the singles chart in the UK. There should be a separate singles chart and digital track chart. Australia does it like that.

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Guest Danny86

I can't see a reason to exclude digital download-only tracks from the singles chart, when there are many download-only singles at this point, and more sales come from digital than physical.

As for only "official" singles allowed to chart - wouldn't that be pointless since sometimes the download entries of album tracks "inspire" the label to promote them as singles? And it could be used for manipulation because many underperforming download-only tracks could be pulled if the label sees they are flopping.

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It's so retarded letting ANY track chart on the singles chart in the UK. There should be a separate singles chart and digital track chart. Australia does it like that.

the UK had it right prior to allowing ANY downloaded single to chart (as of like 1-2 yrs ago). I believe that its valid for newer songs, but for a 15 yrd old song to randomly chart (if dowloads are high enough that week( is just wrong, messed up and prevents newer songs from peaking higher. There should be a rule that once a song has already been released officially, unless the record company RE-releases it in a legit way, this shouldnt be allowed. oh well, just my 2 cents and wont make any impact lol.

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Wednesday Update:

1 Madonna feat. Justin Timberlake 4 Minutes

2 Sam Sparro Black & Gold

3 Estelle feat. Kanye West American Boy

4 September Cry For You

5 Flo-Rida feat. T-Pain Low

6 Usher feat. Young Jeezy Love In This Club

7 Wiley Wearing My Rolex

8 Duffy Mercy

9 Will.I.Am Feat. Cheryl Cole Heartbreaker

10 Mariah Carey Touch My Body

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Wednesday Top 40 update from MW - no sales info

Singles

1 Madonna

2 Sam Sparro

3 Estelle

4 September

5 Flo-Rida

Top 10

Wiley

Will I Am

Top 15

Scouting For Girls

Top 20

Adele

Top 30

Cahill

Pendulum

Kanye West

MGMT

Top 40

Nelly

Wombats

Robyn

Albums

1 Last Shadow Puppets

2 Kooks

3 Leona Lewis

4 Duffy

5 Mariah Carey

Top 10

Whitesnake

Adele

OneRepublic

Top 15

Amy Winehouse - B2B - Deluxe

Michael Jackson

Girls Aloud

Top 20

Chris Brown

Chris De Burgh

Top 30

Britney Spears

Michael Buble

Amy MacDonald

Gabriella Cilmi

Top 40

Feeling

Kanye West

Robyn

Hoosiers

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Wednesday Top 40 update from MW - no sales info

Singles

1 Madonna

2 Sam Sparro

3 Estelle

4 September

5 Flo-Rida

Top 10

Wiley

Will I Am

Top 15

Scouting For Girls

Top 20

Adele

Top 30

Cahill

Pendulum

Kanye West

MGMT

Top 40

Nelly

Wombats

Robyn

Albums

1 Last Shadow Puppets

2 Kooks

3 Leona Lewis

4 Duffy

5 Mariah Carey

Top 10

Whitesnake

Adele

OneRepublic

Top 15

Amy Winehouse - B2B - Deluxe

Michael Jackson

Girls Aloud

Top 20

Chris Brown

Chris De Burgh

Top 30

Britney Spears

Michael Buble

Amy MacDonald

Gabriella Cilmi

Top 40

Feeling

Kanye West

Robyn

Hoosiers

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