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US Chart Talk: 12/27/08


thebigham

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HITS:

YOUR WEAKEND TOP 10 CHART PREVIEW: As the work week winds down, it's still a tight race for #1 next week, but our crack numbers crunchers are giving a slight edge to Big Machine’s Taylor Swift (190-200k) over Jive/ZLG’s Britney Spears (180-190k). With only two weekends left until Christmas, they’re expecting strong sales on the skyrocketing country star at the big-box accounts, and while Britney could still take the top spot, she'll have to buck the trend of big second-week drops in order to do so.

As for the rest of next week’s leader board, it’ll be composed of the usual suspects: #3 Beyonce (Music World/Columbia), 140-150k; #4 Nickelback (Roadrunner), 130-140k; #5 Kanye West (Roc-A-Fella/IDJ), 120-130k; #6 Now 29 (UMe) 110-120k; #7 High School Musical 3 (Walt Disney) or Twilight (Chop Shop/Atlantic), both trending toward 100-110k; #9 David Cook (19/RCA/RMG) 95-100k; and finally, at #10, the week’s lone debut, Musiq Soulchild (Atlantic), with 90-95k. (12/12a)

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ONE year ago:

CHART DATE: 12/17/2007

1 1 JOSH GROBAN REPRISE 666,180 +17%

NOEL

2 2 ALICIA KEYS J RECORDS/RMG 299,164 +28%

AS I AM

3 3 EAGLES EAGLES RECORDING COMPANY 239,725 +19%

LONG ROAD OUT OF EDEN

11 4 MANNHEIM STEAMROLLER AMERICAN GRAMAPHONE 193,949 +118%

CHRISTMAS SONG

4 5 NOW 26 EMI COMMERCIAL MARKETING 192,221 +21%

VARIOUS ARTISTS

6 6 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 2 WALT DISNEY RECORDS 179,255 +37%

SOUNDTRACK

5 7 HANNAH MONTANA 2 - MEET MILEY WALT DISNEY RECORDS 178,198 +31%

SOUNDTRACK

10 8 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 139,618 +44%

TAYLOR SWIFT

7 9 CARRIE UNDERWOOD ARISTA/RMG 138,906 +32%

CARNIVAL RIDE

8 10 GARTH BROOKS PEARL RECORDS 113,434 +10%

ULTIMATE HITS

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NOW IN: 50.65%

2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 136,489

FEARLESS

1 2 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 91,073

CIRCUS

5 3 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 89,890

DARK HORSE

8 4 NOW 29 UME 60,490

VARIOUS ARTISTS

4 5 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 58,247

808S & HEARTBREAK

11 6 AC/DC COLUMBIA 58,134

BLACK ICE

9 7 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 56,920

DAVID COOK

6 8 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 53,795

SOUNDTRACK

3 9 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 52,529

I AM... SASHA FIERCE

-- 10 MUSIQ SOULCHILD ATLANTIC 37,892

ONMYRADIO

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FINAL

2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 254,214 +39%

FEARLESS

1 2 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 192,396 -62%

CIRCUS

3 3 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 161,997 +9%

I AM... SASHA FIERCE

5 4 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 161,049 +18%

DARK HORSE

6 5 TWILIGHT ATLANTIC 133,416 -1%

SOUNDTRACK

4 6 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 128,113 -12%

808S & HEARTBREAK

8 7 NOW 29 UME 117,728 +30%

VARIOUS ARTISTS

11 8 AC/DC COLUMBIA 110,344 +33%

BLACK ICE

10 9 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL: SENIOR YEAR WALT DISNEY RECORDS 108,720 +29%

SOUNDTRACK

9 10 DAVID COOK 19/RCA/RMG 104,539 +18%

DAVID COOK

-- 11 MUSIQ SOULCHILD ATLANTIC 97,100 --

ONMYRADIO

-- 12 COMMON GEFFEN 84,764 --

UNIVERSAL MIND CONTROL

12 13 ENYA REPRISE 78,772 +17%

AND WINTER CAME

13 14 FAITH HILL WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 74,434 +13%

JOY TO THE WORLD

-- 15 BRANDY EPIC 74,092 --

HUMAN

14 16 IL DIVO COLUMBIA 71,605 +11%

PROMISE

18 17 ELVIS PRESLEY LEGACY 64,455 +16%

ELVIS PRESLEY CHRISTMAS DUETS

22 18 P!NK LAFACE/ZLG 63,857 +46%

FUNHOUSE

7 19 AKON SRC/UNIVERSAL MOTOWN 61,143 -43%

FREEDOM

24 20 MILEY CYRUS HOLLYWOOD 60,528 +43%

BREAKOUT

19 21 DAVID ARCHULETA 19/JIVE/ZLG 59,462 +9%

DAVID ARCHULETA

23 22 JONAS BROTHERS HOLLYWOOD 59,093 +38%

A LITTLE BIT LONGER

32 23 YO-YO MA SONY CLASSICAL 57,867 +78%

SONGS OF JOY & PEACE

16 24 LUDACRIS DTP/DEF JAM/IDJ 56,343 -7%

THEATER OF THE MIND

25 25 RASCAL FLATTS LYRIC STREET 54,397 +43%

GREATEST HITS, VOL. 1

15 26 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 54,120 -12%

DAY & AGE

-- 27 AVANT CAPITOL 53,731 --

AVANT

28 28 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 51,005 +42%

TAYLOR SWIFT

27 29 KID ROCK ATLANTIC 50,900 +39%

ROCK N ROLL JESUS

26 30 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 49,404 +34%

PAPER TRAIL

17 31 GUNS N' ROSES GEFFEN 48,242 -14%

CHINESE DEMOCRACY

31 32 NOW ESSENTIAL CHRISTMAS UME 47,728 +40%

VARIOUS ARTISTS

36 33 SUGARLAND MERCURY NASHVILLE 46,367 +52%

LOVE ON THE INSIDE

30 34 ANDREA BOCELLI DECCA 44,432 +28%

INCANTO

40 35 MAMMA MIA! DECCA 43,426 +61%

SOUNDTRACK

33 36 TONY BENNETT RPM/SMEI 42,391 +30%

SWINGIN' CHRISTMAS

21 37 HARRY CONNICK, JR. COLUMBIA 40,159 -12%

WHAT A NIGHT! A CHRISTMAS ALBUM

35 38 METALLICA WARNER BROS. 37,365 +21%

DEATH MAGNETIC

37 39 RIHANNA DEF JAM/IDJMG 37,328 +26%

GOOD GIRL GONE BAD

44 40 JASON MRAZ ATLANTIC 36,634 +55%

WE SING WE DANCE WE STEAL THINGS

34 41 COLDPLAY CAPITOL 35,388 +13%

VIVA LA VIDA

42 42 KATY PERRY CAPITOL 33,001 +34%

ONE OF THE BOYS

39 43 KENNY CHESNEY BNA/SBMG NASHVILLE 32,637 +21%

LUCKY OLD SUN

38 44 T-PAIN JIVE/ZLG 32,138 +9%

THR33 RINGS

47 45 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 29,841 +35%

THA CARTER III

46 46 JOHN LEGEND COLUMBIA 29,068 +27%

EVOLVER

-- 47 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 28,563 --

FOUNDATION

45 48 SEAL WARNER BROS. 28,384 +21%

SOUL

20 49 CASTING CROWNS PROVIDENT/REUNION 27,750 -44%

PEACE ON EARTH

-- 50 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA/RMG 27,705 --

CARNIVAL RIDE

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Guest nothingfails0603

#1 isn't exactly huge for this time of year, but at least it's nice to see other albums selling for a change. #50 with 27k, usually #50 is struggling to barely pass up 10-11k.

Sucks that Killers are flopping so hard, but I guess like Madonna, at least they have the UK

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Guest nothingfails0603
Mamma Mia soundtrack looks to be doing great, was the DVD released this week in America?

yes, the DVD just came out today, so expect some huge gains next week. Unlike a lot of movie soundtracks which plunge down the chart when the movie's out of theaters but the DVD isn't out yet, the MM soundtrack hasn't really stopped selling and has been hanging around the top 50

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It seems like the only chance you have at selling albums these days is to appeal to an older crowd who are not tech savy or make country music and appeal to backwoods hicks who probably just discovered the CD.

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It seems like the only chance you have at selling albums these days is to appeal to an older crowd who are not tech savy or make country music and appeal to backwoods hicks who probably just discovered the CD.

Yup. I feel bad for the pop artists who actually make GOOD music. It should be the other way around.

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Guest nothingfails0603

speaking of Mamma Mia, I noticed that Target is giving away a copy of the soundtrack with the 2 disc special edition, I wonder if those will count at all

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britney will have sold more in 2 weeks than HC in 7 months?

Sadly, yes. Although Britters has the holidays and some decent promotion on her side too. Madonna had neither, and even if she did, I doubt she'd have these kinds of numbers anyway.

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#1 isn't exactly huge for this time of year, but at least it's nice to see other albums selling for a change. #50 with 27k, usually #50 is struggling to barely pass up 10-11k.

Sucks that Killers are flopping so hard, but I guess like Madonna, at least they have the UK

...and the rest of the World thank you very much!

Can't UNDERSTAND the appeal of buying the MM soundtrack... that movie was AWFUL and Meryl Can't sing to save her life... STICK to acting biatch!

Those ppl should just get Abba Gold... FACT...

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"Mama Mia" CD= w/in 1-2 yrs will be in the top 10 of all time- for most used CDs sold to a mom and pop used book/ music store etc lol ...will be right up there with how valuable the "Titantic" soundtrack became by around 2000 lol. Fun, escapism movie for its time, overall though- garbage movie w/ an even worse, disposable, fly-by night, vapid soundtrack! Think about it, once the movie has aged a bit, wholl want to hear Meryl and cast sing Abba songs, compared to spending money on "Gold"

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the whole point of a mainstream pop act releasing an album is to promote it and sell it. its amazing that britney is selling a small fraction less to when ITZ debuted 5 years ago considering overall sales are much lower.

Sadly, yes. Although Britters has the holidays and some decent promotion on her side too. Madonna had neither, and even if she did, I doubt she'd have these kinds of numbers anyway.
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bks at Pulse:

BILLBOARD HOT DIGITAL SONGS - TOP 50

1 1 SPEARS*BRITNEY CIRCUS 153219 -28 211831 365050

2 2 BEYONCE SINGLE LADIES (PUT A RING ON I 136003 -12 153704 721843

3 3 LADY GAGA FEAT. COLBY O'DONIS JUST DANCE 122918 -3 127049 1179661

9 4 WEST*KANYE HEARTLESS 102278 24 82584 634091

4 5 T.I. FEAT. RIHANNA LIVE YOUR LIFE 100716 -6 106892 1948137

5 6 WEST*KANYE LOVE LOCKDOWN 94435 -4 98100 1463744

11 7 SPEARS*BRITNEY WOMANIZER 87466 14 76723 1420612

8 8 SWIFT*TAYLOR LOVE STORY 85967 0 85586 1338084

10 9 PERRY*KATY HOT N COLD 81328 0 81129 2043816

6 10 BEYONCE IF I WERE A BOY 80302 -15 94595 1134745

13 11 RUDOLF*KEVIN FEAT. LIL WAYNE LET IT ROCK 76767 8 71054 1590589

14 12 AKON RIGHT NOW (NA NA NA) 66409 -3 68326 1067398

15 13 MRAZ*JASON I'M YOURS 65886 0 65874 2362549

7 14 AKON FEAT. COLBY O'DONIS & KAR BEAUTIFUL 63148 -31 91674 154822

16 15 T.I. WHATEVER YOU LIKE 62748 -1 63603 2379926

17 16 CAREY*MARIAH ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS IS YO 59811 9 54667 1115256

19 17 NICKELBACK GOTTA BE SOMEBODY 50198 -3 51707 791440

18 18 P!NK SO WHAT 49499 -8 54040 2324367

20 19 RIHANNA REHAB 48462 2 47636 340660

24 20 ALL-AMERICAN REJECTS GIVES YOU HELL 41819 12 37301 266363

58 21 T-PAIN FEATURING LIL WAYNE CAN'T BELIEVE IT 40325 104 19793 971810

21 22 AKON FEAT. LIL WAYNE I'M SO PAID 39798 -3 41150 264259

23 23 BROWN*ZAC BAND CHICKEN FRIED 39051 0 39155 500703

12 24 FRAY*THE YOU FOUND ME 38922 -46 71602 317249

22 25 RIHANNA DISTURBIA 37352 -6 39804 2559632

61 26 BRANDY RIGHT HERE (DEPARTED) 35524 86 19138 237238

28 27 SAVING ABEL ADDICTED 34408 3 33559 925447

27 28 NE-YO MISS INDEPENDENT 33813 0 33875 677073

25 29 KILLERS*THE HUMAN 33298 -9 36674 363284

26 30 PARAMORE DECODE 32068 -9 35339 263077

38 31 VERONICAS*THE UNTOUCHED 31938 18 27068 273210

35 32 LUDACRIS CO-STARRING T-PAIN ONE MORE DRINK 29692 5 28380 146581

33 33 COLDPLAY VIVA LA VIDA 29555 -5 31222 2769947

37 34 LIL WAYNE FEAT. BOBBY VALENTIN MRS. OFFICER 29330 4 28076 591320

36 35 TRANS-SIBERIAN ORCHESTRA CHRISTMAS EVE/SARAJEVO 12/24 29103 4 28028 453986

31 36 SWIFT*TAYLOR WHITE HORSE 28580 -10 31687 265684

32 37 ARCHULETA*DAVID CRUSH 27816 -12 31511 1145510

43 38 P!NK SOBER 27312 15 23673 130078

34 39 O.A.R. SHATTERED (TURN THE CAR AROUND 26858 -9 29432 599999

49 40 JONES*JIM & RON BROWZ FEAT. JU POP CHAMPAGNE 26755 23 21739 146117

40 41 M.I.A. PAPER PLANES 24909 -1 25223 2167390

87 42 COMMON UNIVERSAL MIND CONTROL 23578 65 14331 101599

55 43 PUSSYCAT DOLLS*THE I HATE THIS PART 23486 17 20062 112080

50 44 FALL OUT BOY I DON'T CARE 23284 9 21323 386676

45 45 TRANS-SIBERIAN ORCHESTRA CHRISTMAS CANON 22796 1 22569 355559

41 46 SAVAGE FEAT. SOULJA BOY TELL'E SWING 22736 -7 24413 905237

72 47 ROSSDALE*GAVIN LOVE REMAINS THE SAME 22188 34 16507 855913

60 48 COOK*DAVID LIGHT ON 21290 11 19262 319505

51 49 LEGEND*JOHN FEAT. ANDRE 3000 GREEN LIGHT 21231 0 21164 432659

42 50 AGUILERA*CHRISTINA KEEPS GETTIN' BETTER 20925 -12 23738 607069

A FEW BONUSES:

126 65 METRO STATION SEVENTEEN FOREVER 17979 81 9960 152502

106 83 COSGROVE*MIRANDA ABOUT YOU NOW 14144 19 11923 43168

169 112 T.I. FEAT. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE DEAD AND GONE 10730 33 8056 118694

-- 129 MAROON 5 FEAT. RIHANNA IF I NEVER SEE YOUR FACE AGAIN 9394 85 5081 695281

-- 132 AGUILERA*CHRISTINA DYNAMITE 9320 999 790 10110

-- 133 NE-YO MAD 9296 51 6148 54343

-- 171 ALLEN*LILY FEAR 7880 999 0 7880

-- 194 USHER TRADING PLACES 7074 45 4879 73959

-- 198 BEYONCE DIVA 7001 22 5724 31989

Here's how Hot 100 Airplay ended up before recurrents were removed:

No. 1 - T.I. / Rihanna (-9.4 million)

No. 2 - Beyonce (+12.2 million) Single Ladies

No. 3 - T.I. (-19.5 million)

No. 4 - Ne-Yo (-15.7 million)

No. 5 - Katy Perry (-3.7 million)

No. 6 - Beyonce (-4.4 million) If I Were A Boy

No. 7 - Jason Mraz (-5.0 million)

No. 8 - Britney Spears (+5.8 million)

No. 9 - Lady Gaga (+7.4 million)

No. 11 - Akon (-1.1 million)

No. 12 - Taylor Swift (+5.3 million)

No. 13 - Kanye West (+15.8 million) Heartless

No. 14 - Kevin Rudolf (+1.4 million)

No. 23 - Nickelback (-0.6 million)

No. 36 - Usher (-0.8 million) Trading Places

No. 50 - Rihanna / Justin Timberlake (+1.8 million)

No. 56 - Keyshia Cole (-1.0 million)

No. 75 - Ne-Yo / Jamie Foxx (+5.7 million)

No. 79 - The Fray (+5.7 million)

No. 81 - Britney Spears (+7.5 million) Circus

No. 82 - David Cook (+2.9 million)

No. 86 - Ne-Yo (+4.4 million) Mad

No. 111 - Brandy (-3.7 million) Right Here

No. 122 - Pink (+4.6 million)

No. 128 - Pussycat Dolls (+2.5 million)

No. 148 - Veronicas (+1.6 million)

No. 180 - Beyonce (+3.8 million) Diva

No. 346- Brandy (-0.9 million) Long Distance

Majority of songs are impacted by Christmas in terms of audience while songs charting below 20 are impacted in terms of position (considerably lower you go on chart). Mariah has Top Christmas song at 20 followed by Brenda Lee at 27.

On R&B airplay, Beyonce is 1 (Singles Ladies), T.I./Rihanna 2, Usher 5 (Trading Places), Keyshia 11, Ne-Yo/Jamie Fox 16, Beyonce 17 (If I Were A Boy), Kanye 22 (Heartless), Usher 24 (Here I Stand), Ne-Yo 30 (Mad), Beyonce 33 (Diva) and Brandy 51 (Long Distance).

And Streaming:

No. 1 Katy Perry - Hot N Cold

No. 2 Taylor Swift - Love Story

No. 3 Beyonce - If I Were A Boy

No. 4 Britney Spears - Womanizer

No. 5 Beyonce - Single Ladies

No. 6 Pink - So What

No. 7 Jason Mraz - I'm Yours

No. 8 T.I. / Rihanna - Live Your Life

No. 9 Jose Feliciano - Feliz Navidad

No. 10 Leona Lewis - Better In Time

No. 11 Lady Gaga - Just Dance

No. 20 Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You

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Billboard.com:

Taylor Swift Reclaims Billboard 200 Throne

December 17, 2008 10:48 AM ET

by Katie Hasty, N.Y.

In a week without a top 10 debut, Taylor Swift's "Fearless" reclaims the top spot on The Billboard 200, inching up 2-1 thanks to a 29% sales increase to 249,000 copies in the United States, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

"Fearless" debuted at No. 1 five weeks ago with 592,000 and has shifted 1.5 million so far. Last week's chart-topper, Britney Spears' Jive set "Circus," falls to No. 2 with 200,000 (-60%). Beyonce's "I Am ... Sasha Fierce" (Music World/Columbia) holds tight at No. 3 for a second week on a 4% increase to 159,000. With a 17% increase to 156,000, Nickelback's "Dark Horse" (Roadrunner) ascends 5-4.

The Chop Shop/Atlantic soundtrack to "Twilight" climbs 6-5 with 132,000 (-1%) as Kanye West's "808s & Heartbreak" (Roc-A-Fella/Def Jam) slips 4-6 with 127,000 (-10%). Rebounding 9-7 on a 27% sales boost, the multi-label hits compilation "Now 29" moves 114,000 units. AC/DC's Wal-mart exclusive album "Black Ice" (Columbia) re-enters the top tier 11-8 on a 30% sales increase to 110,000.

The soundtrack to Disney's "High School Musical 3: Senior Year" falls 8-9 despite an 18% sales boost to 107,000. David Cook's self-titled 19 Recordings/RCA debut rounds out the top 10, staying put at No. 10 with 104,000 (+19%).

Music Soulchild's "onmyradio" (Atlantic) debuts at No. 11 with 91,000 copies. The soul/R&B singer has two prior No. 1s, including 2007's "Luvanmusiq."

Entering at No. 12 is Common's "Universal Mind Control" with 82,000. The G.O.O.D./Geffen set comes on the heels of the rapper's 2007 album "Finding Forever," which peaked at No. 1.

Other debuts this week include Brandy's Koch/Epic set "Human" at No. 15 with 73,000 and Avant's fifth, self-titled album from Capitol at No. 26 with 52,000.

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Why would you hate how radio influences the chart? It's been part of the Hot 100 since its inception in 1958. Is that because, then, a certain track would be No. 1 without airplay in the mix? Come on now. :)

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