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Predict 1st week U.S. sales for HC!!!!!!


Ciccone's Cheeks
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its a little concerning w/ how M will sell and I may now have to lean closer to 300k instead of 350-375. Yes, shell still be #1, will sell more than 250k, but if she doesnt cross 300k it wont shock me.

me too... but i still have my hopes up

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ya. in a way Im shocked MC only sold 475k (NOT bad), yet she was EVERY freakin single grade A show, has a HUGE US fanbase, support from radio etc etc..and to not break 500k is shocking lol! And cause of all these factors, its a little concerning w/ how M will sell and I may now have to lean closer to 300k instead of 350-375. Yes, shell still be #1, will sell more than 250k, but if she doesnt cross 300k it wont shock me.

I'm surprised with Mariah's numbers also. Yes, it's a big number for her if you take it out of context. BUT SHE WAS EVERYWHERE and everything was working to her advantage! Almost everyone, even her haters (i.e. us here) was expecting her to easily pass the 500K mark and with Oprah and AI to push 600K ... hmmm ...

I now predict HC to open with around 300K.

On the other hand it may be that Mariah was over exposed and people noticed that ... so there may be still place for Madonna to sell 350-400K copies ... we shall see ...

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Why do everyone think that Madonna will sell like 200.000 less than Mariah?

well I know the US is Mariah's main market and that she is their little pet...

but people gotta remember that Madonna indeed had a hit with 4M in the US.... we don't have the Hung Up scenario with this song...

so why do everyone think that Madonna will sell SO MUCH LESS??

I actually think we're up for a nice surprise... yes she REALLY needs to do some promo though... but other than that... I can't see why it would open so "badly" that everyone predicts...

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Personally, I don't want to get my hopes up and say that she'll see this huge sales week of 400k+ and then hear from Hits that she only moved 200-something. I'd rather underestimate and be pleasently surprised by a higher number than I initially called than to spend a day being disappointed when I find out that Madonna didn't beat out what's her name.

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Madonna sold 350 with COAD when it was a good month April is still scarey. im saying maybe: 300,000 - 350,000.

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Personally, I don't want to get my hopes up and say that she'll see this huge sales week of 400k+ and then hear from Hits that she only moved 200-something. I'd rather underestimate and be pleasently surprised by a higher number than I initially called than to spend a day being disappointed when I find out that Madonna didn't beat out what's her name.

Well... I don't think she'll beat the cow in the US... and never thought...

but I don't really get why she should sell like so much less... considering that 4M actually is a hit... unlike HU was in 2005...

I guess we have to see...

she better announce some promo because promo is needed!

Anyway... anything under 350 would be really dissapointing actually... at least for me... I have really high expectations on this one...

I won't go and say that it'll make 400+... allthough I hope... but under 350 would indeed be dissapointing...

I know wome people on here may argue differently... but I think that the hype for this album is pretty big, the reviews have been more or less good and she already has a hit song in the states... and she hasn't had a hit since DAD in 2002... so I think it SHOULD fair 350 or better... and I don't care what sales climate we're in... Madonna's name alone is HUGE and the first single has been pretty big...

If she could manage to sell 350 with COADF in the first week without any radio support... I don't see why she couldn't this time...

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Guest calenwilwarin

i think she can do a 400K opener. she's got the vanity fair thing which she didn't have the last time. there's coverage on ET, E!, ellen...and there's the hall of fame thing. those should mean something.

plus, when COADF came out, she was coming off american life - so people are wary. now maybe the vibe is more positive. look at 4minute's performance in itunes.

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Guest harbors

The bitch needs to bring her old ass out there and promo or her new album will tank. Let me go over all her hectic schedules again:

1. Workout

2. Breakfast, lunch and dinner

3. Chat with friends

4. Write children books

5. Workout again

6. Breast-feed David

7. Pee...&...

8. Take a shower

9. Browse Madonnation

10. Sleep

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The bitch needs to bring her old ass out there and promo or her new album will tank. Let me go over all her hectic schedules again:

1. Workout

2. Breakfast, lunch and dinner

3. Chat with friends

4. Write children books

5. Workout again

6. Breast-feed David

7. Pee...&...

8. Take a shower

9. Browse Madonnation

10. Sleep

:lol:

Well... I actually agree... I think based on promo... this album can sell 400+ in its first week... without that... -100k... and that makes alot of difference I think...

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Why do everyone think that Madonna will sell like 200.000 less than Mariah?

well I know the US is Mariah's main market and that she is their little pet...

but people gotta remember that Madonna indeed had a hit with 4M in the US.... we don't have the Hung Up scenario with this song...

so why do everyone think that Madonna will sell SO MUCH LESS??

I actually think we're up for a nice surprise... yes she REALLY needs to do some promo though... but other than that... I can't see why it would open so "badly" that everyone predicts...

I think it is going to surprise. There are so many variables in play its going to shock some people. Its so volatile that I can't even fathom a guess.

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Guest harbors
I think it is going to surprise. There are so many variables in play its going to shock some people. Its so volatile that I can't even fathom a guess.

No, it's not going to surprise anyone. That was just your wishful thinking.

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No, it's not going to surprise anyone. That was just your wishful thinking.

Ummm, what? It is either going to disappoint or do phenomenal numbers. Either way, it will surprise most people. Except Sister Cleo that is.

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Guest harbors
Ummm, what? It is either going to disappoint or do phenomenal numbers. Either way, it will surprise most people. Except Sister Cleo that is.

:lol::scared:

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Guest ercos

i will expect 400k plus for Hard Candy as 4M is still having its impact on the charts.

Gauging the success (or failure) of the lead single since year 2000: Music (single) #1 = Music #1 (album) 420k+; AL (single) top40 = AL #1 (album) 250k+; Hung Up #7 = COADF #1 300k +;

thus

4M #3 (or even #1) = HC #1 410k+

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many of u already nailed it: shes has a bonafide *HIT* single which is ON the radio, frequently requested, #1 on ITunes, really good positive buzz waaay more than COAD, which highly influences many many 1000s of extra casual/ non hardcore fans/ record buyers, many of whom will be the simpleton tweens who see the JT/Timbaland name attached to all this, barely even know who Madonna is LOL., yet love the song end up buying the single and album! Thats (unfortunate as it is to a degree) yet will contribute greatly to the 1st and 2nd week sales. Its quite UNrealistic and delusional to think she'll top Mimi/400k, yet the 300-350 #s seem to me the majority here and gut objective feeling is shes in that range done deal.

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4M certainly sold a lot more than we thought it would.

I would predict 430+ except for music sales being what they are today making it difficult... 350-400 is most likely I think.

If she would tear herself away from the pilates for a second she may have pulled in higher than that. I swear, Vanity nails it about her selling and marketing. That is, it is highly overrated. Madonna expects this shit to sell itself practically! :)

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HC will sell 1.5 M copies in 1 month

That's my prediction

Around the world you mean? Or in the US! It would have to sell 375k for 4 weeks straight. Thats not happening.

Again....First week 400-450k!!! Now get out there on tuesday and BUY! :tongue:

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Guest angel27
I hope and prayer for 500K!

common' guy we can hope it! :thumbsup:

Would be great, but not gonna happen.

Mariah did close to 500,000 and she had a #1 AND did MAJOR publicity.

Madonna has done NONE here in the U.S. yet. Haha. So crazy.

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