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Predict 1st week U.S. sales for HC!!!!!!


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Guest LikeAHugeMFan!

#1 debut with around 375-400k. *if* theres no major competition/new releases, she may spend 2 weeks at #1.

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Everything in entertainment has gotten more front-loaded.

It used to be you released a song to radio and an album was out a week or two later. Now you can be Beyonce and have 2-3 singles out before the album even hits store shelves,

That's because the first 2 singles from B's last album bombed and they were desperate for a hit. Same thing with janet, she released like 4 songs already.

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I will be slightly disappointed if this doesn't beat Music's first week. A hit first single + Justin Timberlake + Timbaland + Pharrell + live concert night after release + late leak = big opening week.

475K is my pessimistic estimate

Edited by Sam
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350,000-370,000

Album sales are WAY down, but I still think the public reaction to 4 Minutes will just about balance that out. Besides, I think the collapse of the music industry is really hurting the longterm effects of album sales much more so than the first week sales. One big reason is the abscense of the CD as an impulse purchase anymore.

What I'm more worried about is whether Madonna wins the battle or the war. COADF was lucky enough to have the holiday season to pad its sales. COADF had the advantage of Black Friday falling on the second week of its release explaining its encouraging 40% drop. Hard Candy will not have any of that. The march to the 1 million mark will probably be much slower than we are all anticipating.

I also wanted to comment on the issue of first week sales being higher nowadays. One big thing that nobody has mentioned is the advent of the internet. For the first time, record companies could get the official release date out to everybody. Beforehand, people relied on radio DJs, MTV, music magazines, and record stores to inform us of the release date. But today, release dates are everywhere online, just at the click of a button. If you look at the general trend, first week sales started exploding in 1998, 1999, and 2000 right when the internet was exploding. For the first time, everybody knew when an album was out to the date.

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Guest fighting_spirit

320-370k, it would be higher if there was excessive promotion (a la Mimi) but the album is out in a week and nothing has been scheduled aside from the Today Show and her NY gig so I don't expect much.

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320-370k, it would be higher if there was excessive promotion (a la Mimi) but the album is out in a week and nothing has been scheduled aside from the Today Show and her NY gig so I don't expect much.

Yeah! Seriously! wtf is she thinking?? is this album gonna promote by itself or what??

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it'll be about 200k less than Moomoo which is 475k - 200k = 275k

The fat cow deserves her hard work!

or 300k++ if she shows her face more often. i have no idea wtf she's doing now. the album will drop in a week i don't see any commercials or anything.

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it'll be about 200k less than Moomoo which is 475k - 200k = 275k

The fat cow deserves her hard work!

or 300k++ if she shows her face more often. i have no idea wtf she's doing now. the album will drop in a week i don't see any commercials or anything.

she's doing yoga and pilates and checking out som booties...

anyway... she'll definitely sell over 300+ though... i am almost certain!

and cow deserves nothing... no one who makes a lame album/singles deserve success no matter how much they whore it out...

but whoring is needed to sell well though and Madonna needs to do some promo... pronto! announce something!

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upcoming releases for 04/29/08

artist/label last major release 1st week sales U.S. OTC

BABY D

Koch

HUTCHINSON, ERIC

Warner Brothers

JIMMY EAT WORLD

Interscope Deluxe Edition

JENNINGS, LYFE

Columbia

LIL MAMA

Zomba/ZLG

MUDCRUTCH

Warner Brothers

MADONNA

Warner Brothers

NERF HERDER

Oglio

PORTISHEAD

Mercury

ROOTS

Island

ROBYN

Interscope

WINWOOD, STEVE

Columbia

look at her competitors who are releasing the albums on the same week. Since I only know a few names, seems like she will make it to number 1.

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ya. in a way Im shocked MC only sold 475k (NOT bad), yet she was EVERY freakin single grade A show, has a HUGE US fanbase, support from radio etc etc..and to not break 500k is shocking lol! And cause of all these factors, its a little concerning w/ how M will sell and I may now have to lean closer to 300k instead of 350-375. Yes, shell still be #1, will sell more than 250k, but if she doesnt cross 300k it wont shock me.

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ya. in a way Im shocked MC only sold 475k (NOT bad), yet she was EVERY freakin single grade A show, has a HUGE US fanbase, support from radio etc etc..and to not break 500k is shocking lol! And cause of all these factors, its a little concerning w/ how M will sell and I may now have to lean closer to 300k instead of 350-375. Yes, shell still be #1, will sell more than 250k, but if she doesnt cross 300k it wont shock me.

naah... i'm pretty optimistic she'll sell over 300 actually...

she DO need to do some promo though... but i'm still pretty optimistic...

didn't Danity Kane or whatever their name are sell like 250 the first week of their new album a couple of weeks ago?? I can't see why Madonna that is both a bigger name and actually has a bigger single won't manage to top that?

300+ first week sale... could break 400 if she does some GOOD promo... which so far hasn't been announced any of...

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