Catboy Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Who knows. Nobody expected a #3 either, but I prefer to not have high expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eroticromance Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 (edited) Who knows. Nobody expected a #3 either, but I prefer to not have high expectations. You are right. And there are other weeks to get #1. Maybe we should relax a little Edited April 6, 2008 by eroticromance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jamesshot Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 I'd be content with a #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Candylipsgirl Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 I like Mtz previous post. If we extrapulate "usher" selling the same as last week 130-140 then, one can surmise.... (through the bar thingy) 4m bar is double of usher. In other words, last week 4m sold 217k and (like mtz posted) if Usher sells 140 this week Madonna should do 280 ..plausible (last week 217k plus 1 extra day plus moving to number 1 on itunes) 280k plus 40 air = 320 points or 270k plus 40 air = 310 points mariah 180k plus 125 air = 305 points I would say Madonna (plausibly) can reach # 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest harbors Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 I like Mtz previous post. If we extrapulate "usher" selling the same as last week 130-140 then, one can surmise.... (through the bar thingy) 4m bar is double of usher. In other words, last week 4m sold 217k and (like mtz posted) if Usher sells 140 this week Madonna should do 280 ..plausible (last week 217k plus 1 extra day plus moving to number 1 on itunes) 280k plus 40 air = 320 points or 270k plus 40 air = 310 points mariah 180k plus 125 air = 305 points I would say Madonna (plausibly) can reach # 1. I hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catboy Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 I'd be content with a #1 After all of these years who wouldn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 I like Mtz previous post. If we extrapulate "usher" selling the same as last week 130-140 then, one can surmise.... (through the bar thingy) 4m bar is double of usher. In other words, last week 4m sold 217k and (like mtz posted) if Usher sells 140 this week Madonna should do 280 ..plausible (last week 217k plus 1 extra day plus moving to number 1 on itunes) 280k plus 40 air = 320 points or 270k plus 40 air = 310 points mariah 180k plus 125 air = 305 points I would say Madonna (plausibly) can reach # 1. and if my estimates would be + or - 10% margin of error... i'll permanently close that popbar in my iTunes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiveItToMe Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 All this talk of Madonna possibly hitting #1 in the US is totally sexy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveProfusion Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 I would die if she goes to #1. But I don't want to get my hopes up 2 much. When will the #s for digital sales be out? wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flotando Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 (edited) I have watched the same thing on Itunes bars, but that would mean Leona will be up to 220k downloads and I think that is not possible at all. She sold much less last week! Has she done any special promo this week? More probably things would stay the same. Mariah 160 + 125= 285 Usher 130 + 140= 270 Madonna 220 + 40= 260 Leona 180 + 65=245 And anyway, 4M is going to have a long run in the top 10... And that is a good thing, people. If she wants a #1 she should go to TV with Justin, but it's like she doesn't care for #1... Edited April 6, 2008 by flotando Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
air1975 Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Candylipsgirl, You are not taking into account the first few days of the itunes sales this week, when Mariah was ahead of Madonna. I think that overall, Madonna's downloads will be about 20-25% ahead of Mariah's for this week.. I like Mtz previous post. If we extrapulate "usher" selling the same as last week 130-140 then, one can surmise.... (through the bar thingy) 4m bar is double of usher. In other words, last week 4m sold 217k and (like mtz posted) if Usher sells 140 this week Madonna should do 280 ..plausible (last week 217k plus 1 extra day plus moving to number 1 on itunes) 280k plus 40 air = 320 points or 270k plus 40 air = 310 points mariah 180k plus 125 air = 305 points I would say Madonna (plausibly) can reach # 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eroticromance Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 Candylipsgirl, You are not taking into account the first few days of the itunes sales this week, when Mariah was ahead of Madonna. I think that overall, Madonna's downloads will be about 20-25% ahead of Mariah's for this week.. But if you watch the bar of last monday-tuesday Madonna and Mariah were very close, the gap was just 5-10%. Now Madonna is about 40% ahead. And 40% of 280 is 112 = more than enough to reach #1 We only have to hope that Madonna is really at 280k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 You are not taking into account the first few days of the itunes sales this week, when Mariah was ahead of Madonna. I think that overall, Madonna's downloads will be about 20-25% ahead of Mariah's for this week.. but that's not how it works... i think... every MONDAY everyone starts at zero... but for ranking purposes the 7-day rolling figure is used, that's why new songs move up pretty fast... Have you noticed how MADONNA quickly moved near MARIAH after sunday last week? That's probably because she was released on a TUESDAY... so every MONDAY everyone start at zero and SUNDAY midnight is the finish line... so whatever is the popularity bar on sunday midnight it's most likely the positions of the songs, it's the other download sites that will make the difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sniper Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 But if you watch the bar of last monday-tuesday Madonna and Mariah were very close, the gap was just 5-10%. Now Madonna is about 40% ahead. And 40% of 280 is 112 = more than enough to reach #1 We only have to hope that Madonna is really at 280k Don't forget that 4M #1 on amazon.com since monday till sunday TMB is out of Top10 I really hope that 4M sales are at least 30K are from amazon.com what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sniper Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 but that's not how it works... i think... every MONDAY everyone starts at zero... but for ranking purposes the 7-day rolling figure is used, that's why new songs move up pretty fast... Have you noticed how MADONNA quickly moved near MARIAH after sunday last week? That's probably because she was released on a TUESDAY... so every MONDAY everyone start at zero and SUNDAY midnight is the finish line... so whatever is the popularity bar on sunday midnight it's most likely the positions of the songs, it's the other download sites that will make the difference... mtzlplk the question is: this popularity bar is for the last 24 hours or for the last week if for the last week then you are right but I still don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullaBarbie Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 dont forget Mimi has video plays added too, which Madonna has not until next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisy_Boy Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 And we all have to wait until Wendesday morning to know any sales news... grrr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightshade Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 I have watched the same thing on Itunes bars, but that would mean Leona will be up to 220k downloads and I think that is not possible at all. She sold much less last week! Has she done any special promo this week? I heard something about Leona performing on Good Morning America on Friday or something. I am not sure if she actually did, but it would explain her pulling ahead of Mariah in download numbers since Friday. Leona may get a good boost next week too since her album comes out on Tuesday - and as we have seen with Janet, download numbers increase significantly for the lead single during the week of the album release. Hopefully, the media frenzy surrounding Madonna dancing in her underwear with Justin in the video will dominate the airwaves and give "4 Minutes" an edge. Also, "4 Minutes" was available for streaming on AOL since late Friday/Saturday, so she will get a fraction of momentum from that - as it counts toward the Hot 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted April 6, 2008 Share Posted April 6, 2008 but that's not how it works... i think... every MONDAY everyone starts at zero... but for ranking purposes the 7-day rolling figure is used, that's why new songs move up pretty fast... Have you noticed how MADONNA quickly moved near MARIAH after sunday last week? That's probably because she was released on a TUESDAY... so every MONDAY everyone start at zero and SUNDAY midnight is the finish line... so whatever is the popularity bar on sunday midnight it's most likely the positions of the songs, it's the other download sites that will make the difference... I'm pretty sure that iTunes is always tracking a 24-hour period. They don't care about Billboard's chart week, they'd have no reason to "reset" once a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Candylipsgirl Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 It appears that most of us agree on the "possibility" of 4m reaching the pinacle. Now , Botoxic, on pulse, wrote that Madonna needs to outsell Mariah, by 85k to reach the summit. He also wrote, that Mariah airplay is NOT surpassing that of last week. Meaning, if Mariah drops (289 last week) to 160k plus her 125 air = 285 points and , if Madonna sells 255k plus her 40 air = 295 points Madonna would be # 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afrolito Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 It's gonna be pins and needles until wednesday, but I really think Madonna is gonna take the top spot. Exciting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Xanthium Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 We are all gonna be hyperventilating till Wednesday LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiveItToMe Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 It's gonna be pins and needles until wednesday, but I really think Madonna is gonna take the top spot. Exciting times. I wonder how many LAMB suicides that would cause? There is Mariah fans that would probably commit suicide over that. The US is Mariah's only Payola, Cheap Single(sold for a LOSS), Fansite Download Contest, Begging Lambs To Download her song, stronghold. Madonna knocking MOOriah out of #1 in the US would probably cause a Lamb mass suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afrolito Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 I just encountered a lamb at another message board, who was upset that they were ignoring Mariahs' 18th #1. These people are BANANAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catboy Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 I wonder how many LAMB suicides that would cause? There is Mariah fans that would probably commit suicide over that. The US is Mariah's only Payola, Cheap Single(sold for a LOSS), Fansite Download Contest, Begging Lambs To Download her song, stronghold. Madonna knocking MOOriah out of #1 in the US would probably cause a Lamb mass suicide. I don't think so, they already got their 18th #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernatural Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 I wonder how many LAMB suicides that would cause? There is Mariah fans that would probably commit suicide over that. The US is Mariah's only Payola, Cheap Single(sold for a LOSS), Fansite Download Contest, Begging Lambs To Download her song, stronghold. Madonna knocking MOOriah out of #1 in the US would probably cause a Lamb mass suicide. I don't know about the lambs, but I'd be nervous if I were a plate at Hello Kitty Manor. Regardless if they get broken, or eaten off of, they are in for a rough week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciccone's Cheeks Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 this, or next week MAY be the week. VERY frustrating lol yet exciting. Just PRAY that it doesnt end up being Mimi keeping M from #1 for like a few weeks or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catboy Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 this, or next week MAY be the week. VERY frustrating lol yet exciting. Just PRAY that it doesnt end up being Mimi keeping M from #1 for like a few weeks or something... No, it's this week or the one when the album is released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skin Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 this, or next week MAY be the week. I dont know about next week. Leona might pass her ass by then, unless there is some factor I am not focusing in on that will keep Madonna's downloads really high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciccone's Cheeks Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 I dont know about next week. Leona might pass her ass by then, unless there is some factor I am not focusing in on that will keep Madonna's downloads really high? well, thats way more of a scenerio I could sleep better over, again, opposed to it being a Mimi @1 for all the weeks M is #2! lol. Thats the bottom of the chart battle end result in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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