Long term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic

[Apples388]

This article is pretty sobering. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/business/economy/coronavirus-recession.html?referringSource=articleShare&fbclid=IwAR2-CdyTZgqDL_asZw7Mb8XBOs1Hvth3j7RLOIYFUY97JRANizk9lPr7Xho

 

 

[karbatal]

Interesting read. It's though in my opinion a bit "let's think what would happen if", taking into account that we barely know this virus and what happens once vast population have got immune. 

But sadly these experts may be right. Let's hope they don't. 

I think though that we could be a bit more optimistic. That we can't try to picture futures scenarios with what we have now, because new things will be in the equation. 

Numbers say that up to 10 million Spaniards already have the virus. This means 25% of the population. I guess the number is valid for other countries. Opening up the lockdown will mean more people going though the virus but at a slower pace. Less people in hospitals plus much more material will mean less death rate. 

We should take into account treatments too. Combine drugs or whatever that will reduce even more the risks. That could mean far less time in hospitals and less saturation. 

That said, things would slowly get to normal, especially in summer time, when it seems that ultraviolet light would slow the spreading. Come autumn, we will be ready with material and treatment. 

About the economy, things seem bleak too. I tried to think of an optimistic view and one could be that after this loooooong lockdown people will want to enjoy life a bit more. I don't think that we'll be using so much e-commerce because we frankly have realised that life is what happens outside! 

[Kelmadfan]

@karbatal Well said. I like to be optimistic, even though it’s quite difficult some days. Good thoughts, positive vibes to you.

[karbatal]

28 minutes ago, Kelmadfan said:

@karbatal Well said. I like to be optimistic, even though it’s quite difficult some days. Good thoughts, positive vibes to you.

It's difficult to be optimistic but for me it's the only way to cope . That's why I thought in February that Corona was a flu and we shouldn't overreact. I hope I'm not so wrong this time!!!!!

[Kelmadfan]

18 hours ago, karbatal said:

It's difficult to be optimistic but for me it's the only way to cope . That's why I thought in February that Corona was a flu and we shouldn't overreact. I hope I'm not so wrong this time!!!!!

It’s okay to be wrong sometimes. That’s how we learn. I’m wrong a lot, but try to learn from my mistakes. Too bad some countries don’t learn from their mistakes and keep repeating them over and over. 
 

Stay safe.

[Blue Skies]

19 hours ago, karbatal said:

It's difficult to be optimistic but for me it's the only way to cope . That's why I thought in February that Corona was a flu and we shouldn't overreact. I hope I'm not so wrong this time!!!!!

Agree.

Only positive I can take from this is someone once told me adversity can prove to yourself and others what you’re capable of.  

We’ll get there 

[Shane]

From a psychological standpoint, I’m curious how people will behave if/once some semblance of longterm normalcy returns. Specifically, I am wondering if people will be more likely to cling to established routines, to cherish stability and appreciate their home and job. Or will more people think “hell, I’m going to move like I’ve always wanted to” or “I’ve never liked my job, so why not switch jobs? Life is short!”

[karbatal]

1 hour ago, Shane said:

From a psychological standpoint, I’m curious how people will behave if/once some semblance of longterm normalcy returns. Specifically, I am wondering if people will be more likely to cling to established routines, to cherish stability and appreciate their home and job. Or will more people think “hell, I’m going to move like I’ve always wanted to” or “I’ve never liked my job, so why not switch jobs? Life is short!”

Frankly, I think we'll go out to the street and won't be home for like a month

If Aids didn't make people stop fooling around, this isn't going to change our socializing either. Even if the virus is still out there. 

[MadFan]

16 minutes ago, karbatal said:

Frankly, I think we'll go out to the street and won't be home for like a month

Yes. There's been some economic talk that people won't want to pile themselves into crowded restaurants or concert halls, but that WON'T BE ME.

I want to come out of this outside, away from my phone, & all other screens.

Analogue is the new digital.

[Genevieve Vavance]

2 hours ago, Shane said:

From a psychological standpoint, I’m curious how people will behave if/once some semblance of longterm normalcy returns. Specifically, I am wondering if people will be more likely to cling to established routines, to cherish stability and appreciate their home and job. Or will more people think “hell, I’m going to move like I’ve always wanted to” or “I’ve never liked my job, so why not switch jobs? Life is short!”

honestly since I'm in quarantine and isolated from people, I noticed what a shitty boring ass job I have

[Genevieve Vavance]

first world problems i know

[karbatal]

43 minutes ago, MadFan said:

Yes. There's been some economic talk that people won't want to pile themselves into crowded restaurants or concert halls, but that WON'T BE ME.

I want to come out of this outside, away from my phone, & all other screens.

Analogue is the new digital.

Agree

I guess new health habits may appear and I'm not sure about concerts of cinemas and theaters. But streets and shops will be  used again. Of course we may avoid enter a place if it's too crowdy? 

[karbatal]

1 minute ago, Genevieve Vavance said:

first world problems i know

Not really. This lockdown helps thinking more. At least it's helping me a bit, because I was so busy learning a new profession and doing a traineeship in the evening and now I have a more clear idea about my future. 

[Guest]

long term of the pandemic: small bussinesses are going to strugle to survive.No problem for amazon or for Telefonica-movistar...in fact, I´m sure they are earning more money now

[karbatal]

1 hour ago, promise to try said:

long term of the pandemic: small bussinesses are going to strugle to survive.No problem for amazon or for Telefonica-movistar...in fact, I´m sure they are eraning more money now

On the other hand, many people are buying in small shops now because they avoid crowded places. Who knows, maybe shopping centres suffer too. 

The thing is that even when the lockdown is over there'll be measures and crowded places will be still unable to open. Which for a country like Spain, where tourism, beach and restaurants and bars play such an important piece in our economy is an absolute disaster.

But other small business may even have more opportunities. If anybody has money to buy anything, of course. 

Another thing to take into account is if the global system of manufacturing will be changed in any way. This crisis is showing us how weak it is and how easy it can lead to a dramatic shortage. Maybe it's a time for re industrialization in countries? Maybe we start producing goods again instead of bringing all from the other part of the world? 

[Genevieve Vavance]

16 hours ago, karbatal said:

Not really. This lockdown helps thinking more. At least it's helping me a bit, because I was so busy learning a new profession and doing a traineeship in the evening and now I have a more clear idea about my future. 

but I'm so glad I get to keep my work if you know what I mean  

people in gastronomy branche are fucked right now

[XXL]

On 4/5/2020 at 9:52 AM, promise to try said:

long term of the pandemic: small bussinesses are going to strugle to survive.No problem for amazon or for Telefonica-movistar...in fact, I´m sure they are eraning more money now

 

Totally. The middle class might just get the final nail in the coffin

[Blue Skies]

From my experience this disease seems to be hitting the elderly hard, especially the ones with dementia.  I got a horrible call yesterday from someone’s relative whose just about too die from it.  Awful day yesterday.

 

Perhaps a decrease in those diagnoses?  

[Guest]

I don´t know how are the rest of the countries dealing with the economical problems, but at least in spain it seems the debt of thye country will increase until...again, another step to make the middle class disappear

[Camacho]

This Pandemic Will Lead to Social Revolutions

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-this-pandemic-will-lead-to-social-revolutions

[karbatal]

2 hours ago, promise to try said:

I don´t know how are the rest of the countries dealing with the economical problems, but at least in spain it seems the debt of thye country will increase until...again, another step to make the middle class disappear

All countries will have a big increase of the debt. That's how you take billions to pay 75% of the workers salaries who have their business interrupted, for example.

EDIT: I had written a long boring essay on national debt and such but as I'm tired of being such a bore, I decided to delete it. 

So yeah, I guess the middle classes will suffer again.