Jump to content

Predict 1st week U.S. sales for HC!!!!!!


Ciccone's Cheeks
 Share

Recommended Posts

Guest kramm
Guess who's abum is on sale for $9.99 for a second week????

Yup. Mariah's E=MC2.

thats not uncommon, at all. as if selling 500K (during a slower time of the year, mind you) is bad. :rolleyes:

HC will not pull that number. no way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

thats not uncommon, at all. as if selling 500K (during a slower time of the year, mind you) is bad. :rolleyes:

HC will not pull that number. no way.

your optimism and input are quite stimulating. Very appealing lol. :doh::thumbsdown: iiiIiii

Link to comment
Share on other sites

P.S. For the record, pretty much every time Madonna has released an album and forums like this guess about debut sales, about 95% of the people WAY overguess. I'd be happy to be proved wrong, but while M will almost definitely debut at #1, it will probably be with lower sales than most guesses here! I'd wager that Music will always be her biggest opener at 420k.

Didnt you also say first week downloads for 4 MIN would only be 70,000? :p:thumbsup:

Really though. It has to open bigger then Confessions in the US. It just has to. :dramatic:

It will be interesting to see what it does world wide though. Didnt Confessions sell 1.2 or 1.3 million its first week?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didnt you also say first week downloads for 4 MIN would only be 70,000? :p:thumbsup:

Really though. It has to open bigger then Confessions in the US. It just has to. :dramatic:

It will be interesting to see what it does world wide though. Didnt Confessions sell 1.2 or 1.3 million its first week?

Bad Robot if the last statement that Skind made about your prediction is true than :p :p :p As much as I admire your opinion I do believe that Madonna has a pretty good chance at surpassing her personal best record but I really doubt she can surpass MuMu with 1st week sales. I guess time will tell for now we can only make predictions. But I also wasn't sure how many copies 4M would sell on it's first and was really pleasently surprise when the #'s first came out. And now I'm still surprise at how it's been doing on Itunes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didnt you also say first week downloads for 4 MIN would only be 70,000? :p:thumbsup:

Really though. It has to open bigger then Confessions in the US. It just has to. :dramatic:

It will be interesting to see what it does world wide though. Didnt Confessions sell 1.2 or 1.3 million its first week?

I say easily itll equal or, well Fck it, Im gonna say it'll do BETTER, download, IM/ PM era and all lol!! Hold me to this too!! lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest kramm
your optimism and input are quite stimulating. Very appealing lol. :doh::thumbsdown: iiiIiii

isnt it better to be surprised than disappointed? ;)

500K is phenomenal. that said, theres absolutely nothing wrong with 200-300K either. those are solid numbers as well. saying sales wont equal Mariah isnt negative, it's just my realistic opinion. thats all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Bad Robot

I definitely under-predicted the opening week of 4 Minutes when I initially guessed 80,000 (I did later revise that guess to 180,000 -- and yes that was too low also). I was looking mostly at Hung Up -- which opened with just under 30k. I'll freely admit to being wrong about that one! But, in my defense, I was following market trends, and the overall digital market has gone up but not by 700% in just 2.5 years! 4 Minutes is definitely a much bigger hit than I would have ever guessed.

I could also be wrong about Hard Candy, I am just making guesses! But I would rather under-guess than over-guess. Pleasant surprises are always better than mild disappointments. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

350K

No 1

btw, COADF didn't have a big radio hit but it had lot of good buzz and got MUCH better reviews than HC. And at least here in New York you could hear it EVERYWHERE the first month. Any place you went, gay or straight trendy, every other song they were playing was from confessions. That certainly was NOT the case with American Life.

So I think HC doesn't have as good buzz as COADF but has a decent radio hit. This will drive first week sales to about the same as COADF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

well this wasnt made into a poll, yet from what ive read, the majority and average seems to be that this will scan around 350k :) #1 is a given, yet its still quite fun playing the sales prediction game!!! She may exceed this all, but in my gut Im feeling that original 350-375 prediction :))

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I definitely under-predicted the opening week of 4 Minutes when I initially guessed 80,000 (I did later revise that guess to 180,000 -- and yes that was too low also). I was looking mostly at Hung Up -- which opened with just under 30k. I'll freely admit to being wrong about that one! But, in my defense, I was following market trends, and the overall digital market has gone up but not by 700% in just 2.5 years! 4 Minutes is definitely a much bigger hit than I would have ever guessed.

I could also be wrong about Hard Candy, I am just making guesses! But I would rather under-guess than over-guess. Pleasant surprises are always better than mild disappointments. :)

Yeah I understand your point, it's always better to be surprise than dissapointed but I just have a feeling that she has a very good chance of braking her best personal record, we'll just have to wait and see what happens. I also think that if she doesn't mess up her 3rd and 4th singles, she could very well scann over 2 million by the end of the year, I know I'm getting ahead of myself but so far the buzz has been pretty good for this CD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Bad Robot
350K

No 1

btw, COADF didn't have a big radio hit but it had lot of good buzz and got MUCH better reviews than HC. And at least here in New York you could hear it EVERYWHERE the first month. Any place you went, gay or straight trendy, every other song they were playing was from confessions. That certainly was NOT the case with American Life.

So I think HC doesn't have as good buzz as COADF but has a decent radio hit. This will drive first week sales to about the same as COADF.

That's pretty astute.

So many of my friends who are M fans have been talking about how ambivalent they are about the new album. Among hardcore M fans, some faith seems to be shaken -- but I get the impression the general public is responding better to HC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

350K

No 1

btw, COADF didn't have a big radio hit but it had lot of good buzz and got MUCH better reviews than HC. And at least here in New York you could hear it EVERYWHERE the first month. Any place you went, gay or straight trendy, every other song they were playing was from confessions. That certainly was NOT the case with American Life.

So I think HC doesn't have as good buzz as COADF but has a decent radio hit. This will drive first week sales to about the same as COADF.

well I wasnt in NY when COAD/HU came out lol, but I more or less disagree. Ive already commented on how much MORE blatant positive reception the album and just Madonna herself has been getting lately in general. **the airplay factor in the states is like 60% of it, fact. Shes always been "Madonna/mega super star" even at lowest points, yet in '08 just the every day random POSITIVE coverage on shows like E Tonight, The Insider, Extra etc etc etc (Like back in the day 80s-90s)is gonna help. From where she dined out, hung out with, her look etc..is way more blatant compared to the last many years! Rest assured this will help her that 1st sales week! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's pretty astute.

So many of my friends who are M fans have been talking about how ambivalent they are about the new album. Among hardcore M fans, some faith seems to be shaken -- but I get the impression the general public is responding better to HC.

thats seriously the true thing we have going on here (refer to the BB #3 placement). Seems with 4M, MANY hardcore fans (many of whom I know and talked too) are not liking the song, yet she is appealing to the Take A Bow era record buyers. A song which is reeling in minor, non fanatical/ hardcore M fans lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Bad Robot
remember when 100,000 was a good opening?

how come albums open with such larger numbers these days?

i mean, Erotica opened with 167,000 and Bedtime Stories with 145,000.

Everything in entertainment has gotten more front-loaded.

It used to be you released a song to radio and an album was out a week or two later. Now you can be Beyonce and have 2-3 singles out before the album even hits store shelves, and all the promotion is put into getting big numbers that first week. Now it's normal for an album to drop 60% in week 2 -- it didn't used to be like that!

Same with movies -- 15 years ago, falling 50% in the second weekend would be devastating -- now that's actually considered a decent hold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everything in entertainment has gotten more front-loaded.

It used to be you released a song to radio and an album was out a week or two later. Now you can be Beyonce and have 2-3 singles out before the album even hits store shelves, and all the promotion is put into getting big numbers that first week. Now it's normal for an album to drop 60% in week 2 -- it didn't used to be like that!

Same with movies -- 15 years ago, falling 50% in the second weekend would be devastating -- now that's actually considered a decent hold.

:( oh my, Im old enough now to remember that old school formula. For yrs and yrs it was a song premiered on radio ONLY and/or MTV (that was it! ) Was that way for years and years and was such an everyday standard it seemed it couldnt possibly be different lol. "Everything" now and the sales expectations got smacked upside the head within the past 5 yrs lol. Unbelievably different times were in now!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

thats seriously the true thing we have going on here (refer to the BB #3 placement). Seems with 4M, MANY hardcore fans (many of whom I know and talked too) are not liking the song, yet she is appealing to the Take A Bow era record buyers. A song which is reeling in minor, non fanatical/ hardcore M fans lol.

Same experience here. Hard-core fans that I know and talked to seem not excited! Yet the song is selling ... This is quite interesting. Let's see how it'll unfold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

240,000 - 275,00

NO WAY! I would consider the album a flop if it opened with #s like that. Opening around the same as AL!? No way.

450K again! NO LESS!!!! :thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest sasca1971

Hmm. I have been tracking Madonna stuff since the 80s. I'd say 300K to 500K. hahaha. Ok narrowing it down, I really think despite the cratering of the albums market that she will still open with 400K. 375K minimum and 450K maximum. Remember last summer when Reba McEntire had the #1 album at 350K so please - hell Madonna can sure outdo that.......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The music industry has been in outright freefall the past 2-3 years.

That's true, but I don't actually see as having AS MUCH AS an effect on opening week sales. We still have Kanye moving nearly 1 million in a debut week, and now Mariah is on course to pull in close to 500,000 copies. I think the real impact is coming over the long-term record buying public.

Even Britney - whose career is in veritable shambles - was able to open with nearly 300,000 with little promo and a #3 peaking single.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest robingr
No, the market has changed WAY more than a tad.

2008 to date: -12% from 2007

2007: -15% from 2006

2006: -7% from 2005

So, the equivalent #s if you applied these drops to weekly sales figures:

2005: 500k

2006: 465k

2007: 395k

2008: 348k

Funny, I was actually making a guess at 350k = 500k in the past 3 years. Turns out that is pretty much dead-on.

The music industry has been in outright freefall the past 2-3 years.

You can't apply something that is generally for everyone to a single artist, especially Madonna. She has a lot of fans like us that even when leaks are out buy the album.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...