Predict 1st week U.S. sales for HC!!!!!!

[Carta]

I'm not talking about charts, though, I'm talking about sales I'm not going to argue with you any more because we're both on the same side and there's enough bickering going on by people with opposing opinions without people who clearly have the same agenda starting to attack each other Adoration is much better than hatred

[iasonas]

So she's gonna open like April Lavigna exactly one year ago...... It was spring, 2007, the market almost the same with now

[notsomuch]

The music industry has changed so much just in the last two years. It really isn't fair to compare albums that were released two years ago to albums that are released today. madonna and mariah carey know this, how come fans can't understand this as well. Madonna knows that selling records today is harder than it was just two years ago. Never mind eight years ago when Music came out. Just look at how she moved over a million units of 4 Minutes, the medium has changed, and selling albums is more difficult... It really isn't about flopping, it's just the way it is. Let's see what happens over the next two months and how many units she moves. I have a feeling the album will be around for a while...

[Guest ercos]

Mariah sold just under 500k of the follow up to an album that sold 5m+ (so we're looking at 10%, roughly - I don't know the figures offhand). Madonna is heading towards selling just under 300k of the follow up to an album that sold 1.7m (so we're looking at around 17%).

Who is performing better?

___________________________

i like this analysis. just like what i posted before, coming from TEOM, Morriah shud have sold higher on its debut week, at least 700k, to really reflect her CURRENT popularity and marketability and coming from a very strong album (TEOM)...

in the long run, HC will sell higher that COADF though, even if the debut week sales is lesser...

[thebigham]

Billboad.biz:

OVER THE COUNTER: M2M - MARIAH HOLDS THE FORT, MADONNA ON DECK

May 10, 2008

GEOFF MAYFIELD

You might have motion sickness if you've been watching the No. 1 slot on the Billboard 200 for the last two months, with new albums bowing atop the chart for each of the last eight weeks. Leave it to Mariah Carey to calm down the pace—until next week, when another veteran chart queen will rule the roost.

Despite a second-week slide of 61%, the sum that keeps Carey's "E=MC2" at No. 1 is respectable at 182,000 copies. That exceeds the 179,000-unit total that Jack Johnson's "Sleep Through the Static" scored in the second of its three chart-topping weeks. His and Carey's albums are the only 2008 releases to rule the big chart for more than one frame.

The eight-week churn that Carey ends marks the longest turnover streak the big chart has seen since last summer, when albums by Linkin Park, Maroon 5, R. Kelly, T-Pain, Toby Keith, Bon Jovi, Miley Cyrus and T.I. played Hot Potato with the chart's top rung.

In the seven weeks leading to the entrance of "E=MC2," sets by Janet Jackson, Alan Jackson, Rick Ross, Danity Kane, DAY26, George Strait and Leona Lewis each bowed at No. 1.

DIVA JUNCTION: Topping Nielsen SoundScan's April 30 Building chart with 100,000 copies, Madonna is on course to notch her seventh No. 1 album. And, "Hard Candy" will be her fourth to start on the top shelf.

That total reflects unweighted first-day sales from nine accounts—Trans World Entertainment, Best Buy, Circuit City, iTunes, Starbucks, Borders, Target, Anderson Merchandisers and Handleman—that Billboard estimates to account for about 80% of U.S. album sales.

So, where will a start like that put her at the end of the week?

Since September, when Nielsen SoundScan introduced its Wednesday and Friday Building lists, four other albums clocked first-day sales in that neighborhood, with starts of 107,000 each for Chris Brown's "Exclusive" and Kenny Chesney's "Just Who I Am: Poets & Pirates." On the lower end of that range, Bruce Springsteen's "Magic" started with 89,000 while Danity Kane's "Welcome to the Dollhouse" tracked an opening day of 92,000.

Of those four titles, the older-skewing Springsteen and Chesney surpassed 300,000 copies by week's end, the former at 335,000, the latter at 375,000. The younger-appealing Brown and Danity each ended up with sub-300,000 weeks: Brown at 294,000, Danity at 236,000.

Before you assume that the 49-year-old Madonna courts an older crowd, bear in mind that she recruited youth magnets Justin Timberlake and Timbaland to craft lead single "4 Minutes." Consequently, a source close to the album says iTunes downloads drove first-day sales for "Hard Candy," which suggests her opening week will settle in the range of 225,000-250,000.

That would mark a decline from the start for two of her last three No. 1 albums—350,000 copies for 2005's "Confessions on a Dance Floor" and 420,000 for 2000's "Music"—and more in line with the 241,000 that put "American Life" on top in 2003.

Considering that as diverse a list of veteran acts as Radiohead, Alan Jackson and Janet Jackson each led the big chart in 2008 with smaller opening weeks than each had in earlier years, I tend to think a start of 225,000 or more would be fairly handsome. But, just two weeks removed from Mariah Carey's career-best start of 463,000, expect consumer media to play the comparison as a diva smackdown.

'IDOL' WORSHIP: Pundits wondered if composer Andrew Lloyd Webber was an astute booking for "American Idol." But ratings didn't buckle, and some sales ensued.

Combined versions of Sarah Brightman's "Think of Me" sell 4,000 digital downloads (up 753%), Michael Crawford's "Music of the Night" tallies 3,500 (up 855%), and Madonna's original take of "You Must Love Me" moves 2,000 downloads (up 836%).

On Top Cast Albums at billboard.biz, "The Phantom of the Opera: Highlights" zips 10-5 (up 99%), while that show's Original London Cast Recording gallops 14-7 (up 176%).

[SexPistol]

Mariah sold just under 500k of the follow up to an album that sold 5m+ (so we're looking at 10%, roughly - I don't know the figures offhand). Madonna is heading towards selling just under 300k of the follow up to an album that sold 1.7m (so we're looking at around 17%).

Who is performing better?

well... 500k is greater than 300k, so ummmm.... wait, how does math work again?

[Guest danielal]

well... 500k is greater than 300k, so ummmm.... wait, how does math work again?

Hard Candy does 100 k in US for its first day (including here all the pre-orders from Amazon and iTunes)

So if it sells an average 30 k per day then it will do what the official sources predicted

E(wwww)= M(ooo) (Cow)2 does 150 k in US for its first day (including here all the pre-orders from Amazon and iTunes)

Then it sells an average 50 k per day

Now how come Payollah Crazey's E(wwww)= M(ooo) (Cow)2 did close to 150 k in its first day when its pre-orders were less bigger than Hard Candy, which did only 100 k in its first day?

So it's like her fans didn't pre-order her album (unlikely) but then went to buy in its first day like crazy? I'm not saying she didn't do those numbers but it's strange if u think about it. VERY STRANGE

[Guest harbors]

How do you say FLOP in other languages?

I expect at least 300K, and will be very disappointed if it's below that.

[Guest iMisto]

Whoriah is gunna throw a party if Madge can't even shift 300k.... She'll be drink'n all night long.

M-Dolla fans will just have to wait till the tours start to throw their parties.

[Guest Hafo]

Interesting note in HDD:

HARD CANDY, LOWBALL: Although Madonna’s last album of new material for the Evil Empire will top next week’s charts (see related story here), there is much debate as to whether Edgar Bronfman Jr. and Lyor Cohen will throw down sufficiently to optimize its performance in the marketplace. The Terrible Twosome’s unwillingness to be aggressive in marketing her previous releases is reportedly one of the primary reasons the Material Girl is leaving the Bunny for the greener pastures of Live Nation. She’s going out on a high note, though, as her initial single, “4 Minutes,” featuring Justin Timberlake, is shaping up as a massive hit. Nonetheless, projected sales on the album continue to drop, and at presstime it appears that it will debut south of 300k, further evidence of Warner’s low-ball mentality.

[Carta]

well... 500k is greater than 300k, so ummmm.... wait, how does math work again?

I we're looking at sales, Mariah, of course....but relatively speaking, it's not as clear cut. I guess I didn't join the dots well enough

[Skin]

Whoriah is gunna throw a party if Madge can't even shift 300k.... She'll be drink'n all night long.

M-Dolla fans will just have to wait till the tours start to throw their parties.

Or just wait until her global first week total comes out.

[Dindi]

Interesting note in HDD:

HARD CANDY, LOWBALL: Although Madonna’s last album of new material for the Evil Empire will top next week’s charts (see related story here), there is much debate as to whether Edgar Bronfman Jr. and Lyor Cohen will throw down sufficiently to optimize its performance in the marketplace. The Terrible Twosome’s unwillingness to be aggressive in marketing her previous releases is reportedly one of the primary reasons the Material Girl is leaving the Bunny for the greener pastures of Live Nation. She’s going out on a high note, though, as her initial single, “4 Minutes,” featuring Justin Timberlake, is shaping up as a massive hit. Nonetheless, projected sales on the album continue to drop, and at presstime it appears that it will debut south of 300k, further evidence of Warner’s low-ball mentality.

Can't put all the blame on WB though for the lack of promo. Madonna herself seems more interested in her documentary than the album.

[Skin]

Can't put all the blame on WB though for the lack of promo. Madonna herself seems more interested in her documentary than the album.

I thought the same thing. She didnt do one show that gets much attention. I know, I know, I should be happy that I got an amazing album, which I am, but come on. You can never get too much Madonna. Its just sucks to see though cause this album has the potential to be HUGE here and its like she is just letting it slide by. Who knows what the future holds for it though. Anything can happen. Though I think Madonna should keep Give It 2 Me for Europe and release Beat Goes On or Dance 2Night for the second single here.

[Guest missy bi_tch]

I thought the same thing. She didnt do one show that gets much attention. I know, I know, I should be happy that I got an amazing album, which I am, but come on. You can never get too much Madonna. Its just sucks to see though cause this album has the potential to be HUGE here and its like she is just letting it slide by. Who knows what the future holds for it though. Anything can happen. Though I think Madonna should keep Give It 2 Me for Europe and release Beat Goes On or Dance 2Night for the second single here.

what a shame... really?

well I think the news of appro 300k has been on for days...

better to move one

drama will ensue when second week sales are 100k

[Brisy_Boy]

Billboad.biz:

May 10, 2008

'IDOL' WORSHIP: Pundits wondered if composer Andrew Lloyd Webber was an astute booking for "American Idol." But ratings didn't buckle, and some sales ensued.

Combined versions of Sarah Brightman's "Think of Me" sell 4,000 digital downloads (up 753%), Michael Crawford's "Music of the Night" tallies 3,500 (up 855%), and Madonna's original take of "You Must Love Me" moves 2,000 downloads (up 836%).

I just have to say WOW for 2,000 downloads for YOU MUST LOVE ME. Those are completly unexpected and FANTASTIC as the song downloads total must be quite low

[renee205]

2000 downloads for you must love me ...

thats way fierce

Maybe they are comparing Brooke whites disastrous version of the song to the original....

And people are saying that Madge songs are light weight and easy to sing...

[notsomuch]

I'd like to see it pass the 300,000 mark in it's first week.

[eroticromance]

350k is really too much? Noone expected 4M to sell 200k in its first week. Coadf did 350k when HU never sold more than 60k per week.

[Guest marsha]

updated

317k

300k + would be great these days with no promo. ok with minimal Mdollaz promo. anyway, the most important thing is longevity. HC has legs. and wish she saved her time to promote later stunning GITM. want Beat 3rd single. with Kayne, obvious radio hit.

[BullaBarbie]

Hmmm, will this album sell more than AL in USA? I said it time and time again.

SPRING = BAD SALES.

[BullaBarbie]

updated

317k

300k + would be great these days with no promo. ok with minimal Mdollaz promo. anyway, the most important thing is longevity. HC has legs. and wish she saved her time to promote later stunning GITM. want Beat 3rd single. with Kayne, obvious radio hit.

Madonnas albums rarely have legs in USA. Esp. if we see following singles ignored, which is more than likely.

[Guest Hafo]

I am going to predict 301.115. Just because.

[Skin]

So do album sales rise for Mothers Day? Who wouldnt want a nice hot pink CD with Madonna's crotch saying howdie do to you on Mothers Day?

[HolidayGuy]

Rarely have legs? Ray of Light spent 78 weeks on the BB 200; Music spent 55 weeks (I believe). The studio/new-material albums that had the less least amount of legs:

American Life: 14 weeks

I'm Breathless: 25 weeks

Confessions on a Dancefloor: 37 weeks

Bedtime Stories: 48 weeks

Erotica: 53 weeks

COADF did only spent, what was it, 10 weeks in the top 40? If we're looking at time in the top 40, that and AL are the 2 that spent the least amount of time in, followed by IB with 16 weeks. But, every other album spent at least 25 weeks in the top 40, whic his decent.

[Guest marsha]

Madonnas albums rarely have legs in USA. Esp. if we see following singles ignored, which is more than likely.

Confessions had legs with following singles ignored. Beat, Miles... have great potentials. GITM has already proven it can be a smash with good video, great remixes and PROMO M-Do-Lazy!

[Guest marsha]

Rarely have legs? Ray of Light spent 78 weeks on the BB 200; Music spent 55 weeks (I believe). The studio/new-material albums that had the less least amount of legs:

American Life: 14 weeks

I'm Breathless: 25 weeks

Confessions on a Dancefloor: 37 weeks

Bedtime Stories: 48 weeks

Erotica: 53 weeks

COADF did only spent, what was it, 10 weeks in the top 40? If we're looking at time in the top 40, that and AL are the 2 that spent the least amount of time in, followed by IB with 16 weeks. But, every other album spent at least 25 weeks in the top 40, whic his decent.

legs using steroids sometimes! for sure, AL, despite being a wonderful album, was terrible disastrous fiasco. trauma.

[Ciccone's Cheeks]

HC *will* have "legs", big muscular toned Madonna legs lol thatll go for many miles if GI2Me gets any love from US radio! The song in itself is a smash hit just binding its time. No one here should even go there in comparing the American Life album/ Hollywood as a 2nd single vs. GI2Me. The single reason HC will plummet will be if radio simply refuses to play it cause its M for their usual bshit reasons. Yes, the song is a fast disco-tinged stomper, edgy, not your cliche mid tempo generic slow jam, yet it has an infectious killer chorus and strong pop vibe. Look at Rihanas DSTM and David Guetta Love is Gone, which I hear all the time and is WAY more clubby/ non mainstream sounding than GI2Me! "This" is her modern day classic smash hit. If it catches on somehow, starting w/ a few influential DJs than spreading like a forest fire, this album will eassssily surpass 1 million and I think end up w/ around 1-1.5 million (hopefully more).

[Guest marsha]

HC *will* have "legs", big muscular toned Madonna legs lol thatll go for many miles if GI2Me gets any love from US radio! The song in itself is a smash hit just binding its time. No one here should even go there in comparing the American Life album/ Hollywood as a 2nd single vs. GI2Me. The single reason HC to plummet will be if radio simply refuses to play it cause its M for their usual bshit reasons. Yes, the song is a fast disco-tinged stomper, edgy, not your cliche mid tempo generic slow jam, yet look at Rihanas DSTM and David Guetta Love is Gone, which I hear all the time and is WAY more clubby/ non mainstream sounding than GI2Me! "This" is her modern day classic smash hit. If it catches on somehow, this album will eassssily surpass 1 million and I think end up w/ around 1-1.5 million (hopefully more).

[Ciccone's Cheeks]

xo thanks baby doll