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4 Minutes Chart Challenge: Week 3


Guest Bad Robot

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Guest robingr

Everyone estimate top 5 wohoo!

*EDIT* see my new predictions on next page

Why do you guys think the downloads will increase?

Edited by robingr
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Well, well, guys... Looking at your recent predictions –and how well 4 M is doing in itunes–, I think I´ve been too conservative as to downloads. So I´ll change my figures:

AI: 41M

Sales: 262,000

Hot 100: #2

Peak: #1

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Guest robingr

Well, Music sold 2 million in U.S. so it's not entirely without logic that downloads could just continue to increase.

Edited by robingr
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Guest Bad Robot
Well, Music sold 2 million in U.S. so it's not entirely without logic that downloads could just continue to increase.

Music (the single) sold between 1.1-1.2 million.

And that was pre-digital.

We don't really have a good comparison now for digital sales. Hung Up sold over 900,000 copies, but was released 2.5 years ago when digital sales were less than half of what they are today.

I'm pretty certain 4M will outsell Music in the long run. It may even hit 2 million -- making it her biggest selling song since Vogue.

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Guest iMisto
I'm pretty certain 4M will outsell Music in the long run. It may even hit 2 million -- making it her biggest selling song since Vogue.

:rosey: That would be very impressive. Aren't all the top selling digital singles around 2million in sales??? If radio would actually embrace this, I think she could have a HUGE hit on her hands. That's IF radio embraces it. I mean, it's already selling like hotcakes with 'fair' airplay... can you imagine if radio actually played it like they do these other songs??!

Whew.. I'm getting ahead of myself. Don't wanna get TOO excited.

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So for Madonna to have a shot at #1 Mariah's sales would have to drop like 45% or even close to 50% right? Is that normal for download sales to drop that big after only being up for sale for two weeks?

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Im glad madonna is holding strong in digital sales. Mariah dropped because the lambs stopped after one week. their mission got accomplished.

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Guest iMisto

Wait, so does the tracking end AFTER tomorrow, or tonight???

Or is it a completely diff. day? I'm not good at this yet.... lol

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Guest missy bi_tch

i would like to think that next week is not the #1 or not week... she still has chances... it's been out in the open later than TMB>

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i would like to think that next week is not the #1 or not week... she still has chances... it's been out in the open later than TMB>

after this week, her competition will be LEONA and USHER... LEONA releases her album APRIL 8 and USHER debuts his video in TRL

then next week, MARIAH releases her album backed with huge promo exposure...

then MADONNA unleashes the remixes...

then MADONNA releases the album...

very very tough competition for the next 2 weeks...

and when DON'T STOP THE MUSIC completely fades, I assure you TAKE A BOW will surge...

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I assure you TAKE A BOW will surge...

Yuck. That song freakin blows! The girl makes some catchy ass dance tracks but her slow stuff is always awful. :thumbsdown:

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Yuck. That song freakin blows! The girl makes some catchy ass dance tracks but her slow stuff is always awful. :thumbsdown:

I love it... its instrumental is the background music for my friendster account...

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Guest robingr
I tend to be more optimistic than realistic, but Im going to do it-anyway

sales: 270

air: 40

=310

mariah: 180

air: 125

=305

Madonna #1

:thumbsup:

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Guest robingr

New estimations:

AI: 41

Downloads: 260 K

position: #2

Peak: #2

And then it's just going down after this week.

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Guest iMisto
New estimations:

AI: 41

Downloads: 260 K

position: #2

Peak: #2

And then it's just going down after this week.

BLASPHEMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:rant:

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New estimations:

AI: 41

Downloads: 260 K

position: #2

Peak: #2

And then it's just going down after this week.

If she sells that much-Madonna will go to # 1

260 + 41 air = 301 points

thats a hell of a number

now , if Mariah loses steam should be the question

if Mariah drops 50 persent (last week 289/2=144) + 125 air = 269 points

you do the math!

Even if Mariah sells 170k + 125 air = 295 points - MADONNA WILL GO TO #1

SO LETS HOPE YOUR PREDICTION OF 260K SALES FOR 4M COMES TRUE!

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