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US Chart Talk: 12/08/07


thebigham

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HITS:

November 21, 2007

Pass the drumstick as J Records’ Alicia Keys and Reprise’s Josh Groban fight it out for the gravy.

Keys’ chart-topping As I Am and Groban’s Noel will battle it out for #1 on next week’s HITS album chart, with both in the 300-350k range heading into what retailers hope will be a profitable Black Friday.

Helping boost Groban's chances was an appearance on yesterday’s Oprah, where he sang two songs from the disc.

Jostling for top debut will be Jive/ZLG’s Idol-winning Jordin Sparks (125k-150k) and Capitol’s Mr. Kidman, unh, Keith Urban, with a greatest hits collection (125k).

Interscope’s OneRepublic, the L.A.-by-way-of-Colorado group fronted by hit songwriter Ryan Tedder, has stormed the charts thanks to Timbaland’s remix of their #1 smash, “Apologize,” and is looking at a first-week total of 70k, followed by Mercy Me, a group being boosted by a large Christian bookstore number, which could sell between 60-70k for their INO Records release, All That Is Within Me. The Grammy-nominated band from Texas has five previous albums, one of which has gone double-platinum and three others gold.

RBD, the co-ed Mexican pop group which gained fame from starring in the hit Televisa telenovela Rebelde, has sold over 10 million albums worldwide in a little over three years. Their latest for EMI, Empezar Desde Zero (Starting from Zero), looks like it could do between 35-40k, with a big Puerto Rican number.

Roc-A-Fella/IDJ Philly rapper Freeway is looking at 35k for his sophomore album, Free At Last, the long-awaited follow-up to his 2003 debut, Philadelphia Freeway.

Universal Republic is releasing Amy Winehouse’s U.K. debut, Frank, for the first time in the States, with early reports indicating it could do around 25k.

Overall, the market was up 18% vs last week, down 6% vs. same week last year and now down 14.3% year-to-date.

Are you finished with the candied yams and cranberry sauce yet?

http://hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPage.cgi?news06889m01

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NOW IN: 33.74%

LW TW artist / album label power index

2 1 JOSH GROBAN REPRISE 134,578

NOEL

1 2 ALICIA KEYS J RECORDS/RMG 122,888

AS I AM

4 3 NOW 26 EMI COMMERCIAL MARKETING 81,827

VARIOUS ARTISTS

13 4 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 2 WALT DISNEY RECORDS 76,731

SOUNDTRACK

-- 5 JORDIN SPARKS 19/JIVE/ZLG 51,642

JORDIN SPARKS

8 6 JAY-Z ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 44,795

AMERICAN GANGSTER

11 7 DANE COOK COMEDY CENTRAL RECORDS 38,233

ROUGH AROUND THE EDGES: LIVE MSG

3 8 CELINE DION COLUMBIA 36,792

TAKING CHANCES

20 9 COLBIE CAILLAT UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 36,538

COCO

-- 10 KEITH URBAN CAPITOL 35,680

GREATEST HITS

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CHART DATE: 11/26/2007

LAST UPDATE: 11/26/2007 16:04:04

NOW IN: 43.14%

LW TW artist / album label power index

2 1 JOSH GROBAN REPRISE 148,127

NOEL

1 2 ALICIA KEYS J RECORDS/RMG 146,510

AS I AM

4 3 NOW 26 EMI COMMERCIAL MARKETING 88,471

VARIOUS ARTISTS

13 4 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 2 WALT DISNEY RECORDS 78,384

SOUNDTRACK

-- 5 JORDIN SPARKS 19/JIVE/ZLG 56,095

JORDIN SPARKS

8 6 JAY-Z ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 55,530

AMERICAN GANGSTER

11 7 DANE COOK COMEDY CENTRAL RECORDS 43,293

ROUGH AROUND THE EDGES: LIVE MSG

3 8 CELINE DION COLUMBIA 40,470

TAKING CHANCES

20 9 COLBIE CAILLAT UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 39,335

COCO

9 10 CARRIE UNDERWOOD ARISTA/RMG 37,985

CARNIVAL RIDE

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The reports from Wal-Mart and all still have to come in.

Yah, I'd say in this climate, Underwood will be hard-pressed to sell 6m.

Any idea about the Eaglers and the shops that bought copies from Wal-Mart? Were those double scans? Granted, the # that Wal-Mart scanned totaled 640,000 or so of the opening week's 711,000, but still, a curious factor...

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Yah, I'd say in this climate, Underwood will be hard-pressed to sell 6m.

I do too but if her new album has another crossover hit like Before He Cheats then the sky is the limit.

So Small is really quite weak, hope the next single has some ooomph at least.

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Guest Solitaire

The reports from Wal-Mart and all still have to come in.

Yah, I'd say in this climate, Underwood will be hard-pressed to sell 6m.

Any idea about the Eaglers and the shops that bought copies from Wal-Mart? Were those double scans? Granted, the # that Wal-Mart scanned totaled 640,000 or so of the opening week's 711,000, but still, a curious factor...

Soundscan Deleted Other Stores' Soundscan Figure of "Long Road Out of Eden"'s Numbers.

711,000 Copies Came from Only Wal-Mart & Eagles's Official Site's Sales Number.

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HITS:

YES YES NOEL: Thanks to the power of Oprah and holiday shoppers, look for Josh Groban's Reprise album Noel to storm to the top of this week's HITS' chart, leap-frogging Alicia Keys' As I Am, with a total that should go above 400k. As always, keep an eye on the Building Album Sales Chart throughout the day here to follow its progress. (11/27a)

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Hmm... actually, in that edition's Billboard, it stated:

"The industry digerati may be surprised to learn that 670,000 people actually choose to leave their computers and go to beick-and-mortar stores to purchase the CD, while only 41,000 stayed home and bought the album over the Internet- and of that, only 3,500 did it digitally."

And...

"FIrst off I may haveb een exaggerating when I said that Wal-Mart single-handedly sold 711,000 units of the Eagles album, because many independent retailers and even some chains stocked the album. They either purchased it from Wal-Mart stores or their Web site, the Eagles' site or bought it as an import from some of the one-stops that carried it."

I haven't seen any mention of the possible double scans. If there's a link somewhere, would like to see it- thanks!

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Go back and read the chart threads for that week. I posted every article on the Eagles being #1. Geoff Mayfield said they weeded out all double sales.

That's why the tracking week ends Sunday. SoundScan spends all day Monday and Tuesday verifying the sales.

This is all old news.

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NOW IN: 68.18%

2 1 JOSH GROBAN REPRISE 241,869

NOEL

1 2 ALICIA KEYS J RECORDS/RMG 226,249

AS I AM

4 3 NOW 26 EMI COMMERCIAL MARKETING 205,500

VARIOUS ARTISTS

5 4 GARTH BROOKS PEARL RECORDS 163,269

ULTIMATE HITS

6 5 EAGLES EAGLES RECORDING COMPANY 153,066

LONG ROAD OUT OF EDEN

13 6 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 2 WALT DISNEY RECORDS 109,675

SOUNDTRACK

9 7 CARRIE UNDERWOOD ARISTA/RMG 102,992

CARNIVAL RIDE

-- 8 JORDIN SPARKS 19/JIVE/ZLG 97,921

JORDIN SPARKS

-- 9 KEITH URBAN CAPITOL 83,886

GREATEST HITS

15 10 HANNAH MONTANA 2 - MEET MILEY WALT DISNEY RECORDS 71,880

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NOW IN: FINAL

LW TW artist / album label power index % change

2 1 JOSH GROBAN REPRISE 405,375 +77%

NOEL

1 2 ALICIA KEYS J RECORDS/RMG 336,298 -53%

AS I AM

4 3 NOW 26 EMI COMMERCIAL MARKETING 232,993 +14%

VARIOUS ARTISTS

6 4 EAGLES EAGLES RECORDING COMPANY 216,323 +11%

LONG ROAD OUT OF EDEN

13 5 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 2 WALT DISNEY RECORDS 190,378 +141%

SOUNDTRACK

5 6 GARTH BROOKS PEARL RECORDS 188,284 -6%

ULTIMATE HITS

9 7 CARRIE UNDERWOOD ARISTA/RMG 137,633 +19%

CARNIVAL RIDE

10 8 CHRIS BROWN JIVE/ZLG 121,730 +18%

EXCLUSIVE

-- 9 JORDIN SPARKS 19/JIVE/ZLG 121,351 --

JORDIN SPARKS

-- 10 KEITH URBAN CAPITOL 117,315 --

GREATEST HITS

3 11 CELINE DION COLUMBIA 117,263 -43%

TAKING CHANCES

15 12 HANNAH MONTANA 2 - MEET MILEY WALT DISNEY RECORDS 101,295 +54%

SOUNDTRACK

8 13 JAY-Z ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 88,845 -25%

AMERICAN GANGSTER

16 14 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 88,659 +39%

TAYLOR SWIFT

-- 15 MERCY ME INO/COLUMBIA 86,864 --

ALL THAT IS WITHIN ME

-- 16 ONEREPUBLIC INTERSCOPE 84,355 --

DREAMING OUT LOUD

20 17 COLBIE CAILLAT UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 79,713 +45%

COCO

7 18 LED ZEPPELIN ATLANTIC/ATL G 73,816 -45%

MOTHERSHIP

-- 19 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 72,059 --

B-DAY

22 20 RASCAL FLATTS LYRIC STREET 65,112 +25%

STILL FEELS GOOD

23 21 ROBERT PLANT & ALISON KRAUSS ROUNDER 61,504 +19%

RAISING SAND

30 22 JONAS BROTHERS HOLLYWOOD 60,965 +84%

JONAS BROTHERS

11 23 DANE COOK COMEDY CENTRAL RECORDS 59,201 -37%

ROUGH AROUND THE EDGES: LIVE MSG

21 24 REBA MCENTIRE MCA NASHVILLE 59,045 +12%

DUETS

18 25 JAMES TAYLOR HEAR MUSIC 58,486 -2%

ONE MAN BAND

39 26 FERGIE A&M/INTERSCOPE 58,378 +113%

THE DUTCHESS

24 27 SUGARLAND ISLAND/MERCURY NASHVILLE 57,400 +13%

ENJOY THE RIDE

17 28 MANNHEIM STEAMROLLER AMERICAN GRAMAPHONE 57,196 -5%

CHRISTMAS SONG

26 29 KEYSHIA COLE GEFFEN 55,679 +23%

JUST LIKE YOU

47 30 HANNAH MONTANA WALT DISNEY RECORDS 46,432 +107%

SOUNDTRACK

19 31 ANDREA BOCELLI DECCA 45,544 -21%

BEST OFANDREA BOCELLI - VIVERE

28 32 KID ROCK ATLANTIC/ATL G 45,013 +17%

ROCK N ROLL JESUS

14 33 GEORGE STRAIT MCA NASHVILLE 44,946 -42%

22 MORE HITS

29 34 SOULJA BOY TELL'EM INTERSCOPE 44,801 +24%

SOULJABOYTELLEM.COM

44 35 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL WALT DISNEY RECORDS 44,698 +87%

SOUNDTRACK

43 36 KENNY CHESNEY BNA/SBMG NASHVILLE 43,610 +78%

JUST WHO I AM: POETS & PIRATES

-- 37 HAIRSPRAY NEW LINE 43,420 --

ORIGINAL SOUNDTRACK

48 38 DAUGHTRY RCA/RMG 43,205 +93%

DAUGHTRY

36 39 KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 42,297 +38%

GRADUATION

25 40 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/ZLG 37,642 -26%

BLACKOUT

40 41 NICKELBACK ROADRUNNER 37,011 +36%

ALL THE RIGHT REASONS

-- 42 FREEWAY DEF JAM/IDJMG 35,810 --

FREE AT LAST

45 43 TOBY KEITH SHOW DOG/UNIVERSAL NASH 34,552 +45%

CLASSIC CHRISTMAS

-- 44 ENCHANTED WALT DISNEY RECORDS 34,253 --

SOUNDTRACK

37 45 DISNEY CHANNEL HOLIDAY WALT DISNEY RECORDS 33,084 +12%

VARIOUS

31 46 JOSH TURNER MCA NASHVILLE 31,296 -2%

EVERYTHING IS FINE

50 47 TIMBALAND INTERSCOPE 29,615 +34%

TIMBALAND PRESENTS SHOCK VALUE

12 48 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJMG 28,438 -64%

SAWDUST

27 49 BOYZ II MEN DECCA 27,523 -34%

MOTOWN: A JOURNEY THROUGH...

33 50 BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN COLUMBIA 27,497 -12%

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Also the AMAs performance, the Beyoncé Experience concert repeatedly aired on BET last week, those TV commercials plugging her Beyoncé Experience DVD released last week, and those new TV commercials (with B'Day songs playing in the background) for DirectTV HD and the Samsung B'Phone.

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why is B day up again???

I was wondering the same thing! :scared: was her cd completely off the charts and is back on at # 19? that's pretty impressive. Madonna had a network tv special and couldnt get the cd back on the chart, but Beyonce has a commercial and somehow debuts at # 19?? give it up to her i guess

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Guest Bad Robot

ouch for britney...

it's a bummer, this is her first actually GOOD album, and it will by far perform the worst of them all.

that said, she is probably the most repulsive celeb around right now, from a public persona standpoint.

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