Littlebastard Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 ULTIMATE PEAK: #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eroticromance Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Week 1: -Airplay audience impressions: 25 million -Digital Sales: n/a -Hot 100 position: #39 -Ultimate Hot 100 Peak: #1 Hey I am winning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Hey I am winning! the HOT 100 position of #39 is not gonna happen... it will debut in the HOT100 around #85-#95 PRDEICTIONS ARE CLOSED NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eroticromance Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 the HOT 100 position of #39 is not gonna happen... it will debut in the HOT100 around #85-#95 PRDEICTIONS ARE CLOSED NOW! you are just jealous 'cause I'm going to win a night with her 3/23/2008 24.528 mil/aud. My prediction of 25 millions was the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 you are just jealous 'cause I'm going to win a night with her 3/23/2008 24.528 mil/aud. My prediction of 25 millions was the best uhm, we still have two days and my prediction is 27M... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullaBarbie Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 It is certain it will crack HOT100 with near 30 million impressions. Maybe around 70 - 95? If the gains continue this speed and iTunes 1st week is a success, we have another TOP10 for Madonna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 It is certain it will crack HOT100 with near 30 million impressions. Maybe around 70 - 95? If the gains continue this speed and iTunes 1st week is a success, we have another TOP10 for Madonna? we could possibly have 45M-50M audimp by April 1 (for the next chart week) that plus even with just 60-70K worth of downloads would be enough to get her to lower ends of the TOP10... but I am quite confident and sure 4M will have 1st week download sales of definitely not lower than 125k... TOP10 is in the bag I tell ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 I would either like a BU debut or a very low Hot 100 debut (in the 95-100 range) -- then if she were to have a big opening sales week, fly into the top ten. Possibly even match Beyonce/Shakira's 91-spot jump. Otherwise, she'd potentially have a top ten debut the following week if the song only debuts on BU. I'm now thinking it's really likely that it will be in the top ten next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 I would either like a BU debut or a very low Hot 100 debut (in the 95-100 range) -- then if she were to have a big opening sales week, fly into the top ten. Possibly even match Beyonce/Shakira's 91-spot jump. Otherwise, she'd potentially have a top ten debut the following week if the song only debuts on BU. if there are lots of songs with good downloads this week, it could push 4MINUTES in the lower 90s with a BDS of 25M, but right now, we don't even know how much she has at BDS... but last week PAULA ABDUL with download sales of 38K and negligible airplay is as high as #62 in the HOT100... if there's not much difference in Mediabase and BDS this week (30M by Mar25), we could see her debuting around #75-#85... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 As a professional procrastinator, I decided to look back at how my predictions were for some previous songs (see http://charts.madonnanation.com for some old predix). I stopped predicting shortly after songs peaked. Unfortunately I don't have records of my other prediction paths, although I know I did one for AL. Die Another Day Initial peak prediction: #5 (actual: #8) ACTUAL 41-28-18-8-8-10-10-14-16-21-35-etc. PREDICTION 36-26-20-5-9-8-10-14-16-16-30-// What It Feels Like For A Girl: Initial peak prediction: #17 (actual: #23) ACTUAL 73-46-23-23-23-31-etc. PREDICTION 75-56-20-19-21-28-// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 can't wait for tomorrow's results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest missy bi_tch Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 hot shot #55? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 hot shot #55? no way... although I predicted #90 i really hope it's lower than that so that MADONNA could achieve that record BAD ROBOT was talking about... the 91-spot jump made by Shakira and Beyonce... and #100 debut will be great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Ha, I like that I'm ALL CAPS. We'll use the Mediabase numbers reported tomorrow morning for airplay. By the afternoon we should also know if it debuted on the Hot 100 or Bubbling Under. I'm certainly not going to win this first week, my guesses were both too low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 well I like ALL-CAPSing name of significant people around the thread... especially MADONNA, I just love looking at it in ALL CAPS, i don't know if it's just me btw, I am excited about the result later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ercos Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 its going to be a low debut for 4 Minutes which is okay since the more exciting event wud be the jump on the April 4 edition when the downlaods are factored in. but, well theres a but, the AI this week seems to have slowed down....currently, its only at 25.3M, only with 0.8 increase so far since the first week. if the AI reaches 40M and with 120k downlaods, its a sure top10 in the April 4 edition. The 120k is actually a possibility but the 40M AI by this week? i doubt, but am hoping for the best. Madge needs the Top10 this April to be the FIRST ARTIST TO BREAK AN ELVIS BB RECORD!! yes!!!! SIDE NOTE: what about Mariah's TMB you ask? a number 1 for TMb is not quite possible as Usher, Chris brown and Ray J have VERY strong airplay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Well all the predix will be off since to our surprise 4 Minutes had a day or so of sales this past week on Verizon apparently. She sold about 12.5k. Airplay looks like it's 25.4 million. She'll definitely debut on the Hot 100 -- probably in the 60s? So who had the closest guess on airplay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Well all the predix will be off since to our surprise 4 Minutes had a day or so of sales this past week on Verizon apparently. She sold about 12.5k. Airplay looks like it's 25.4 million. She'll definitely debut on the Hot 100 -- probably in the 60s? So who had the closest guess on airplay? darn, i never should've changed my original 25M predix... UGH... i think there's someone who guessed 25M... that's the closest... as for the position, wow, 12.5K copies for a day in Verizon? Where did that come from? That's huge. I wonder how 4M will do at Verizon for the rest of the chart week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eroticromance Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 darn, i never should've changed my original 25M predix... UGH... i think there's someone who guessed 25M... that's the closest... as for the position, wow, 12.5K copies for a day in Verizon? Where did that come from? That's huge. I wonder how 4M will do at Verizon for the rest of the chart week... Hey my predix was 25 millions. So when can I have wild sex with her? Strike a pose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 and this week's winner is... NIGHTSHADE! Nightshade guessed airplay of 30m and Hot 100 position of #62, for an overall accuracy score of 86.5%! Runners up: #2 mtzlplk #3 Hafo Harbors and Eroticromance should get credit for guessing the airplay dead-on, but unfortunately their Hot 100 predictions were rather far off. Only Nightshade had both a close guess with airplay and a close guess with the Hot 100 position. This week was tricky due to the surprise of early sales figures being included. Next week should be an interesting playing field! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Camacho Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 I was initially so conservative w/airplay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 YAY!!! that tricky VERIZON sale, nobody knew about that... UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eroticromance Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 (edited) ok i was too much optimistic Edited March 27, 2008 by eroticromance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hafo Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 I doubt I'll be even Top 5 next week. US charts puzzle me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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