HolidayGuy Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 So, what do we think? GHV2 opened with 150K and change back in 2001- that was in November, and when album sales were a lot healthier than they are now (pre-iTunes cherry-picking age). Will she top 100K, or fall short? Discuss.
Guest SoUnusual Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 I'm completely unsure what it will do......
Nightshade Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 105,000. Honestly, I have no idea. I think GHV2 did "as well as it did" because she was just coming off Music and the Drowned World Tour. Now, we have a sickly industry and a lead single that barely made it to #71 on the Hot 100. I guess I'll be happy if it breaks 100k, but 80,000 to 90,000 wouldn't be completely unrealistic. Of course, it would've helped if she had more hits in the US in the past 5 years. I am not sure she connects with the youth audience much anymore, and most of her older (casual) fanbase already owns TIC and GHV2. Maybe "Revolver" will help her in that respect (when and if it is released as a single).
Knocka Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 Very difficult to say, but i'll go with 90,000-100,000.
markm Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 She's heading for around 65-70k in the UK so anything less than than that would a flop.
Dindi Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 Given the total lack of hype and buzz, I wouldn't be surprised if it opened closer to the 50-60 K range. Although being a double CD, does that equate to 100-120 K?
horn Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 By looking at the number of ppl who refuse to buy the GH, I guess it will be 30-40K, debut at #11.
GroovyGirl Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 By looking at the number of ppl who refuse to buy the GH, I guess it will be 30-40K, debut at #11. what ppl? you mean the 6 fans on madonnanation? :vanitybonet:
Guest Danny86 Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 think GHV2 did "as well as it did" because she was just coming off Music and the Drowned World Tour. Yeah, I said the same in one of the recent threads. Surely it would have sold more with a new song but nobody can deny it was a lot more successful period for her. Well, I want to be optimistic so I'm betting on 120k for now. Anything below 100k will be a disappointment (she should sell that on her name alone), but if it indeed debuts below 100k, it will struggle to pass 500k in total and there will be some meltdowns among fans...
HolidayGuy Posted September 25, 2009 Author Posted September 25, 2009 Dindi, the double CD only gets doubled for certification purposes. Celine Dion's My Love collection (which also had double-CD and single-CD formats) did around 58,000 when it debuted. Will Celebration leave that in the dust, or open similarly? I'd hope for the former. Anything above 100K would be good, but for the first time maybe ever, I don' think a 100K+ opening is in the bag (for a major release, whether sudio album or compilation). Trivia: Something to Remember opened with almost 113,000 in 1995, and that had a top 10 hit. Different times, I know...
Guest Danny86 Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 STR did not have a single help its first week sales as "You'll See" was commercially released weeks after the album, I guess because they wanted "I Want You" as lead off single. And yes, her mid-90s first week sales look weak in comparison, even though all of them were October/November...
MLVC82 Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 35,000? there is absolutely ZERO promo...aside from posters.....POSTERS?!!!.....that's it.
Skin Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 This is a tough one. One one end there is no hype built up for it. On the other end the cover is very catchy and anyone willing to take the time to pick it up and read the songs on the back will see it consists of hit after hit after hit after classic hit. All the people that are scooping up the MJ greatest hits might think this one will make a nice book end to that maybe? I really have no clue. Im going to go out on a limb though and say 175,000-200,000. I do think sales will be consistent through the holidays though. I hope....
Skin Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 1,113 -1,114 You told me you were going to buy 20,000 copies on your own. Lies!
horn Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 You told me you were going to buy 20,000 copies on your own. Lies! Ban PAUPOWER13!
Chuck82 Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 You told me you were going to buy 20,000 copies on your own. Lies! I honestly don't give a shit how much she sells. At this point in her career it's irrelevant, but some fans get so worked up over it..I find it rather amusing. On the other hand I do understand why fans want her to sell. It's a nice feeling when your icon does well in that department, but I am much more interested in the product and what it has to offer not the sales.
Skin Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 I honestly don't give a shit how much she sells. At this point in her career it's irrelevant, but some fans get so worked up over it..I find it rather amusing. On the other hand I do understand why fans want her to sell. It's a nice feeling when your icon does well in that department, but I am much more interested in the product and what it has to offer not the sales. Well as long as you dont buy Moo Cows record the same day.
Chuck82 Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 Well as long as you dont buy Moo Cows record the same day. Ugh ya right! The last Mimoo album I bought was Rainbow and this new one is trash to the max.. I will be getting the 2 disc Celebration and the DVD. I might even get an extra DVD just to have as I tend to lose shit like that
dimfanis Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 Madonna 35,000 Mariah 250,000 Barbra 90,000
Skin Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 Madonna 35,000 Mariah 250,000 Barbra 90,000 35,000!? Geeze. I know I am more than likely asking for the moon with my prediction but damn that is a low guess. Madonna officially sucks ass if this is the case.
thebigham Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 Babs is not going to sell 90k. It will be interesting to see if Celebration will be in the Target and Best Buy circulars in the Sunday papers. I'm sure it will be.
Guest FrozenLight Posted September 25, 2009 Posted September 25, 2009 I think it will sell about 72K on its first week in the US but I think it will have legs and stay in the Billboard 200 charts for 20 weeks or so. I'm expecting something like this week 1: 72K week 2: 30K week 3: 22K week 4: 19K week 5: 16K week 6: 17K week 7: 30K week 8: 40K week 9: 30K week 10: 25K week 11: 50K week 12: 50K week 13: 18K and then go down from there I would love for the first week sales to be above 100K but I'm doubting it this time around
HolidayGuy Posted September 25, 2009 Author Posted September 25, 2009 True, YS was commercially released after STR's release- but, it entered Hot 100 Airplay 3 weeks prior. When STR debuted at #6, YS was in is 4th week on Hot 100 Airplay. While it's not always an indicator, let's compare her first-week sales in the UK and USA for major projects this decade. SOmeone let me know if I'm off on the UK figures for GHV2 and Hard Candy. Music USA: 420,000 UKL 152,000 **Sold roughly 175% more in the USA than UK in the first week. GHV2 USA: 150,000 UK: 88,000(?) **Sold roughly 70% more in USA than UK in first week American Life USA: 241,000 UK: 65,000(?) ** Sold roughly 270% more in the USA than UK in first week Confessions on a Dance Floor USA: 350,000 UK: 217,000 **Sold roughly 61% more in USA than UK in first week Hard Candy USA: 280,000 UK: 94,000(?) **Sold roughly 198% more in USA than UK in first week So, let's say the USA figure ends up 65% higher than in the UK- if it sells 60K in the UK, that would be 99,000. Keep in mind that "Celebration" is a hit single in the UK, but we don't really know what impact that has on a compilation, though. If it's lucky, the ratio will be a little higher.. COADF's UK debut was astounding.
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