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Who will win the US election?


jonski43
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Who will win the US election?  

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  1. 1. Who will win the US election?

    • Biden
      32
    • Trump
      12


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I want Biden but i think Trump! I hope i’m wrong.  Watching CNN you’d think Biden is winning convincingly! Let’s see hope for the best!🤞

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Not to make anyone feel complacent, but the data does seem to show a convincing Biden win. I think people are just scarred by 2016, and we obviously have a lot of chicanery going on with the Trump campaign already (lawsuits to deny ballots, slowing the Postal Service, etc.).

No matter who wins, there is going to be a firestorm.

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I hope with all my heart that Biden wins, but unfortunately, like in 2016, the media totally overestimates the polls. People lie to pollsters and the samples are no longer representative of the actual population. The same polling problems have been observed in many elections for the last 4 years all over Occident. I hope with all my heart that I'm wrong and be able to open the bottle of champagne I bought to mark the day this POS loses.

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1 hour ago, Martin B. said:

I hope with all my heart that Biden wins, but unfortunately, like in 2016, the media totally overestimates the polls. People lie to pollsters and the samples are no longer representative of the actual population. The same polling problems have been observed in many elections for the last 4 years all over Occident. I hope with all my heart that I'm wrong and be able to open the bottle of champagne I bought to mark the day this POS loses.

Many pollsters modified their modeling after 2016 to account for some of that, however, you are right that the polls are only as good as the honesty of those being polled (and many may support Trump but aren't willing to say it). Some of the good news I am talking about is the increased voter turnout. In some swing states, Democrats are returning mail-in ballots at a much higher rate. Of course, that advantage can easily be wiped out by GOP voters on Election Day, but we'll see. In places like TX and GA (traditionally Republican states), turnout is much higher than 2016 and generally speaking, higher turnout has traditionally benefited Democrats. But again, I know it's not a done deal.

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I think the polls are more accurate now than in 2016. They have fixed what were gaps in their sampling. And they have been much more careful about margins in the swing states. So the polls are pretty clear that Biden will win. The only surprise would be how each party has used that polling data in the past few weeks - Trump tactically focuses on small demographics in a very local areas, which can be just enough to turn the margins in just the right places if Biden doesnt focus on the right areas. It will all come down to 3 states. The real risk is that all Biden people voted early, and these votes wont necessarily be all counted next Tuesday, so I expect Trump to use every tactic to try to claim victory or at least say the results are wrong.

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3 hours ago, Paul said:

I think the polls are more accurate now than in 2016. They have fixed what were gaps in their sampling. And they have been much more careful about margins in the swing states. So the polls are pretty clear that Biden will win. The only surprise would be how each party has used that polling data in the past few weeks - Trump tactically focuses on small demographics in a very local areas, which can be just enough to turn the margins in just the right places if Biden doesnt focus on the right areas. It will all come down to 3 states. The real risk is that all Biden people voted early, and these votes wont necessarily be all counted next Tuesday, so I expect Trump to use every tactic to try to claim victory or at least say the results are wrong.

Yes definitely also everyone is voting early this year due to the pandemic. It’s safer.  

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Data (unlike 2016) is pretty off the rails consistent and on POINT. If anything, benefits T more (underestimating Biden)! lol Lots of pollsters likely over sampling Maga (white, toothless mamas who are also your sisters, GED, no college degree etc...) ANYone but T and we'd have a 1996/2008 (at worst) 'clean' landslide-esque result. T and his thugs/goons gonna go ALL out, legally, violence, intimidation etc.. What u all see are a minority but loud and CRAZED AF so...seems like they're this 'majority'. NO. Should be by more but around 55 percent truly loathe him. Maybe 5-10 perc. more just seriously dislike him.

Election is ALL about HIM (not the economy etc...) If it was a Romney...even Cruz etc...and the pandemic response was slightly botched people would likely still give benefit due to economy vs this deep, primal animus. Polar opposite of the lunatics who worship him. Scary shit...the lack of ANY grey area that every other Pres. had in US history.

That said, IF the Supreme Court etc..aren't in his pocket (def. a concern of mine) Biden def. gets it but I'm just not 100 perc ONLY cause the legal fvckery his ghouls may try! Still voted for Biden in this poll.  

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I am starting to get more confident that Biden will win. I have seen a lot of Americans on news shows who are so disgusted in Trump and his fanatical loud base. I think Trump supporters make a lot of noise but surely Americans can see how dreadfully he has handled Covid and how obnoxious and dangerous he is to democracy and decency. 

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14 minutes ago, Jazzy Jan said:

I am starting to get more confident that Biden will win. I have seen a lot of Americans on news shows who are so disgusted in Trump and his fanatical loud base. I think Trump supporters make a lot of noise but surely Americans can see how dreadfully he has handled Covid and how obnoxious and dangerous he is to democracy and decency. 

This! 🙏 this happens and for us! 😕. 😘

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I posted in another thread that the betting money is often a good guide of who wins. It was on Trump in 2016, leave for Brexit 2016 and 80% is on Trump winning this time. 

Labour were expected to win here a few years ago but the Tories won thanks to "shy Tories"; people who wouldn't admit how they voted.

I hope it's wrong.

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4 hours ago, Shaun said:

If Trump wins, I will finally lose my faith in democracy, America, and humanity.

This.

If he wins, it is the beginning of the end of democracy as the benchmark regime in the world. Democracy was already in a poor state before Trump's arrival, but his tenure legitimized and made authoritarian regimes acceptable. The extreme manipulation of the electoral system by the Republican Party by gerrymandering districts and promoting vote suppression has already brought the American electoral system to the midpoint of the pseudo Russian electoral system. Yes, the very high turnout in advance and mail-in voting clearly suggests the Democrats are pulling out the ballot. Unfortunately, the in-person vote will be more markedly trumpist and will be counted first. He will therefore announce his victory very soon after a few ballots counted and do everything possible to reject the postal ballots. This is the approach he has been preparing for since the beginning of summer. 

I am a lover of socio-political news but one thing is certain: if he wins the election, I cancel my subscriptions to The Atlantic and to the two newspapers I read, because I will not be able to endure 4 more years to hear talk about this shit. In December 2016, I already felt like this shit had been part of our lives for years. 4 years of everyday obscenity and lies made me hate this man like I have never hated anyone in my life.

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Momentum is with Biden. The only way Trump can win now is if democrats dont vote - which is possible if too many people think Biden is in front so they dont need to vote. Everyone must vote - tell anyone you know in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin to go vote no matter what.

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Trump. And even if he doesn’t win legitimately he will take it to the Supreme Court and they will vote in his favour. And if for some way he doesn’t win and Biden is President Elect he will push a conspiracy theory that he was robbed and will encourage his support to revolt. Just look what happened in Michigan with Whitmer. Just imagine that but across the whole country. More violence and polarisation across the country. The US is cooked no matter who wins the election. Both New Zealand and Australia have issued travel warnings for the US. 

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To all of our American members, if you haven't yet, please go vote because there is so much at stake in this election. Don't be fooled by the polls even if they seem favorable to Biden. Every vote is needed especially in this election as POS will challenge the results no matter what Biden's margin of victory is. The greater the margin, the more difficult it will be for POS to manipulate the legislative levers in place.

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The Helmut Norpoth modal says 90% chance of Trump winning - this model has been correct in 25 of the last 27 elections. The two elections where it was wrong were both marred with allegations of fraud etc... 

https://news.stonybrook.edu/facultystaff/maverick-modeller-helmut-norpoth-predicts-another-win-for-trump/

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42 minutes ago, jonski43 said:

The Helmut Norpoth modal says 90% chance of Trump winning - this model has been correct in 25 of the last 27 elections. The two elections where it was wrong were both marred with allegations of fraud etc... 

https://news.stonybrook.edu/facultystaff/maverick-modeller-helmut-norpoth-predicts-another-win-for-trump/

Prof. who called every election since 1984 predicts Biden will win..

https://www.jpost.com/us-elections/jewish-prof-who-called-every-election-since-1984-predicts-biden-will-win-647699

Let's see who's right or wrong this time... 🙂

 

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A key item to keep in mind is that, surely, anyone who voted in 2016 and didn't vote for Trump, will not have voted for him this time. On the flip side, we've heard from people who did vote for him in 2016 who did not/will not do so this time. And hopefully there's a good amount of those voters.

Let's hope for the best. *group prayer circle may commence now*

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49 minutes ago, HolidayGuy said:

A key item to keep in mind is that, surely, anyone who voted in 2016 and didn't vote for Trump, will not have voted for him this time. On the flip side, we've heard from people who did vote for him in 2016 who did not/will not do so this time. And hopefully there's a good amount of those voters.

Let's hope for the best. *group prayer circle may commence now*

Let me join you, 🙏

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1 hour ago, HolidayGuy said:

A key item to keep in mind is that, surely, anyone who voted in 2016 and didn't vote for Trump, will not have voted for him this time. On the flip side, we've heard from people who did vote for him in 2016 who did not/will not do so this time. And hopefully there's a good amount of those voters.

Let's hope for the best. *group prayer circle may commence now*

I'm an atheist and deeply anti-religion, but I think I'll join you here.:lol:

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1 hour ago, runa said:

Prof. who called every election since 1984 predicts Biden will win..

https://www.jpost.com/us-elections/jewish-prof-who-called-every-election-since-1984-predicts-biden-will-win-647699

Let's see who's right or wrong this time... 🙂

 

Yes, I keep finding different articles about who they think will win. It's fascinating stuff.

An update of the bookmakers; although 80% of money is on Trump, bookies still think Biden will win with Trump only with a 35% chance. 538 think Trump has half that!

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i think it'll either be a landslide for biden or very close win for trump.

edit to add:

im sure initially many well meaning republicans voted for him thinking he just ran a loud campaign but perhaps wouldnt be so extreme in office. i dont believe they will give him a second chance.

ironically, i wouldnt be surprised if team trump used covid thinking it could benefit him in the election, but it may have woken up some people. you don't gamble with peoples health

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