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2016 American Presidential Thread


JR!

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More Dem stuff is gonna leak, not sure when, but it's a given now

NYtimes reporting the hack went deeper than just the DNC.

This is gonna be an ugly 3 months. Not sure it'll get Trump elected but it'll be ugly if past is prologue

Don't be afraid of the ugly. It's time. There's been some foul, foul shit going on in this country long enough. No, getting it out there probably won't get Trump elected but the whole reason I wanted this guy to be at least the nominee was to bring the cockroaches into the light. Things could be going better but it's HEAPS better than just Hillary vs Jeb, which is what those 2 had planned.

It either happens now, peacefully, with an election or the TRUE ugly will come to fruition if Hillary insists on stealing the election.

If anything its after the election that worries me, no matter who wins.

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Trump Is In Fourth Place Among Black Voters

It wasn’t that long ago that Donald Trump liked to boast about his support from black voters. And although Trump had a history of controversy on issues of race, it wasn’t that crazy to think he could at least outperform the GOP’s last two presidential nominees, John McCain and Mitt Romney, with black voters. After all, McCain and Romney were polling at less than 5 percent among black voters after their conventions, and Trump isn’t facing off against the first black presidential nominee of a major party.

But Trump is polling worse among black voters than almost every single Republican presidential nominee since 1948 in polls taken between the party conventions and Election Day.

Trump is currently in fourth place among black voters. You read that correctly: He’s trailing Hillary Clinton, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Any one national poll typically has only about 100 African-American respondents — too small a sample to make much of the results. So here’s an average of the four live-interview surveys taken since the conventions, from ABC News/Washington Post, Fox News, Marist, and NBC News/Wall Street Journal:

POLLSTER CLINTON JOHNSON STEIN TRUMP ABC News/Washington Post 83% 4% 8% 2% Fox News 85 7 — 1 Marist 89 5 3 2 NBC News/Wall Street Journal 86 0 4 1 Average 86 4 5 2 Trump is in fourth place among black voters

Fox News did not include Jill Stein in its horse-race question.

Trump’s 2 percent is just flat-out awful.1 And it doesn’t seem like a statistical fluke: Trump’s lack of appeal among black voters is pretty consistent, at 1 percent to 2 percent across the polls, and he trails Stein in the three post-convention surveys that included her.

To find out how Trump is doing compared with past Republican nominees, I looked at the American National Election Studies surveys since 1948. Some 2016 voters haven’t decided who they’re going to vote for, so to be fair to Trump, I looked at only the pre-election surveys (as opposed to the post-election ANES surveys), because they allowed respondents to indicate they were undecided. It’s not pretty.

enten-blackvoters-1.png?quality=90&strip

Since 1948, the average Republican nominee earned about 10 percent of the black vote. Even since the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, when black voters began moving into the Democratic Party, the average Republican nominee got an average of about 7 percent. Trump is pulling in about one-fifth of that.2

Black voters will probably account for 10 percent to 15 percent of all voters this year, so Trump will really have to overperform with other voters to have a chance of winning the White House.

Trump’s poor polling puts him in un-welcome company. Barry Goldwater is the only candidate whose pre-election support among African-Americans was worse than Trump’s is; he received the support of no African-American respondents in the 1964 ANES survey. Goldwater, of course, stood in opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act. McCain was at 1.4 percent in 2008, just about what Trump is getting now. But McCain, as I mentioned, was running against the first major-party black nominee.

Trump isn’t widely known for opposing major civil rights legislation, and he isn’t facing Obama. But perhaps because he’s made so many racially charged comments, including as a leading voice of the birther movement, he is so disliked by black voters that he’s the first Republican nominee since 1948 to be polling below second place among them before the election. (He’s the first to be polling in fourth.) Johnson and Stein, whom most voters have never even heard of, are ahead of Trump. For a Republican Party that wanted to reach out to minority voters after the 2012 election, that’s not good.

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The only reason why I laughed really heard when I read about the terrorist's dad standing behind Clinton at a rally is because Clinton always fucks up unintentionally. Leave it to Clinton's team to somehow not realize that a mass shooter's dad who says some weird shit ended up RIGHT BEHIND HER, IN FRONT OF THE CAMERAS :rotfl:

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Maybe Trump is friends with pedo Foley?

I didn't know there was more to the story, and Trump was bashing Hillary for having that man sitting there, and Trump goes usually the people that get these seats are friends of mine and friends to the campaign, and he turns around and goes who here are friends to me or my campaign.....And Foley enthusiastically cheers. :lmao:

Mess.

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Now that I know the context of this its even more hilarious. I didn't know Trump at this rally with Foley was trying to make the connection that there must be something sinister going on with Hillary because the shooters father was there. Well if Trump wants to connect those dots that you are friends with those close to you at your rally have at it. :lmao: Talk about a mega fail on his part.

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Maybe Trump is friends with pedo Foley?

I didn't know there was more to the story, and Trump was bashing Hillary for having that man sitting there, and Trump goes usually the people that get these seats are friends of mine and friends to the campaign, and he turns around and goes who here are friends to me or my campaign.....And Foley enthusiastically cheers. :lmao:

Mess.

CpioiT8UkAE3eMJ.jpg

http://www.opensecrets.org/indivs/search.php?name=Trump&cycle=All&sort=R&state=&zip=&employ=&cand=Foley&submit=Submit

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I can't believe anyone even cares who is the audience for anyone. Campaign organizers just try to find a mix of people and they seat them back there. Yes, they sometimes reserve those spots for people with big names, but if you think anyone on the Clinton campaign even knows what the Orlando shooters father even looks like, you're a fucking idiot. Those people are too busy to run background checks at everyone who attends a campaign rally.

Even Foley showing up doesn't mean much as the Trump campaign was off the rails weeks ago.

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ULIZOS, on 10 Aug 2016 - 11:32 PM, said:

I was just thinking, why the hell are there people sitting BEHIND candidates at rallies in the first place?

In hopes that people watching on TV will look at the screen and say, "HEY! That person looks like me! It's okay for me to vote for so and so!"

Just like Trump found the only two black people in the country that support him to sit them directly behind him in hopes that other black people will watch and say, "Hey! I can vote for Trump now!"

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In hopes that people watching on TV will look at the screen and say, "HEY! That person looks like me! It's okay for me to vote for so and so!"

Just like Trump found the only two black people in the country that support him to sit them directly behind him in hopes that other black people will watch and say, "Hey! I can vote for Trump now!"

Kind of like Clinton's running mate speaks in Spanish in the hopes that latinos will watch and say "Hey, he speaks broken Spanish! I can vote for Clinton, now!"

:lmao:

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So if Hillary wins the election is "rigged" huh?

Yet if Trump who, let's be honest here, doesn't (and never really did) have a real chance in hell at becoming the next President wins it's legit?? REALLY?? Even the racists and bigots that like his "ideology" surely can't believe in their heart of hearts that this man is in any way fit and capable to run the most powerful country on earth.

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The things people argue about. :rotfl:

It wouldn't matter if Trump had Santa and the Easter bunny sat behind him. It wouldn't matter if Hillary had Freddy Krueger and Leatherface sat behind her. The obvious reality is that the American people would be better led by Hillary.

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Nate Silver is a statistician not a pundit

Methinks Love Spent is just trynna troll this thread tho tbh

And that's why he's more credible.

Research reviewing predictions of political and economic pundits over 20 years showed their forecasts were only marginally better than predictions by chance or those made by average person with a passing familiarity with the topic.

OOPS

And why should we be all SHOCKED about the father of a lunatic showing up to a rally? This has nothing to do with Clinton directly.

Everything that scares the shit out of us about Trump LITERALLY comes from Trump's own mouth and actions.

Trying to connect dots that just don't connect.

It's the stupid media that loves these kinds of things. Much easier than talking about policy and explaining it to the public.

By the way, does everyone at a rally need to be personally invited?

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Hillary had a light bulb moment where she said, "You know what. I need some scandal myself! Go get me the father of the man that slaughtered a bunch of people and sit him right behind me! Wonderful idea!" :lmao:

:dead: :dead:

The most reasonable explanation is that the Clinton campaign probably thought that it would be good to have an old guy with brown skin on the camera range. All campaigns do that, they want to show that the candidates have supporters from all ages and skin color.

In some TV show that I sometimes watch they always put a hot guy and a hot blond girl just behind the TV host to improve the ratings :lmao:

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ULIZOS, on 11 Aug 2016 - 12:00 AM, said:

Kind of like Clinton's running mate speaks in Spanish in the hopes that latinos will watch and say "Hey, he speaks broken Spanish! I can vote for Clinton, now!"

:lmao:

As if Hillary needs to pander to for the latino vote when Trump pretty much handed that to her on a silver platter.

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Moka, on 11 Aug 2016 - 08:13 AM, said:

:dead: :dead:

The most reasonable explanation is that the Clinton campaign probably thought that it would be good to have an old guy with brown skin on the camera range. All campaigns do that, they want to show that the candidates have supporters from all ages and skin color.

In some TV show that I sometimes watch they always put a hot guy and a hot blond girl just behind the TV host to improve the ratings :lmao:

Or when it comes to the women on Fox News they all have to wear really short skirts and look like porn star bootleg journalist Barbie.

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