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Britain votes in favor for Brexit

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Pound falls as polls indicate more support for Brexit
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The pound has fallen after two separate surveys suggested rising support for the UK leaving the EU.
Sterling hit a three-week low against the dollar, dropping 1.5 cents to $1.4358, before recovering slightly.
Against the euro, the pound was 0.46% lower at €1.2705 at midday.
A YouGov poll found 45% favoured the UK leaving the EU, with 41% wanting to stay, while a separate Observer/Opinium poll also found the Leave campaign ahead by 43% to 40%.
"It is becoming extremely worrying for the financial markets and we expect more sterling losses if polls continue to indicate a Brexit lead," Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at global online broker FXTM said.
Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said he expected the high level of volatility in currency trading to continue.
"With both sides likely to step up their game over the next couple of weeks, I imagine we'll see a lot more volatility in the pound, and the closer the polls get, or if 'Vote Leave' continues to push ahead, the pound may find itself back towards April's lows before too long."
Some City analysts have warned that the value of sterling could drop sharply in the event of a Leave vote.
In May's Inflation Report, the Bank of England said that uncertainty over the EU referendum was already affecting the pound.
"There is evidence that a material proportion of the 9% fall in sterling exchange rate since its peak in November could reflect referendum effects," the report said.
Asked about the fall of the pound following success for Leave in the opinion polls, pro-Brexit Conservative Boris Johnson said: "The pound will go where it will over the short term. But, believe me, in the long term you can look forward to fantastic success for this country.
"I think the pound's value will depend entirely on the strength of the UK economy."
What could happen to the value of sterling in the event of a vote to leave?
According Paul Hollingsworth, UK economist at Capital Economics, a vote for leave could trigger an immediate fall in the value of sterling. However, he believes the severity of the fall would be determined by what the opinion polls say over the next few weeks.
"If we see more of shift towards Leave then clearly we could see some of that depreciation come before the vote than after it.
"However, if polls lean towards Remain and we still vote to leave then there would be more of shock factor, and that could hit the pound hard."
On balance, he believes that a vote to leave the EU would cause a 10%-20% fall in the pound.
Mike Amey, a managing director at Pimco, the world's largest bond fund believes it would be more like 5% to 10%.
What about in the following weeks and months?
Any recovery of sterling would depend on various factors. On the upside we could see the political rhetoric around Brexit change following the vote, and this might have a positive impact.
"I can't imagine the Prime Minister would say 'this result is all doom and gloom'," says Mr Hollingsworth.
That said, some have speculated David Cameron might have to step down in the result of a Brexit vote. This would result in a leadership contest and more political uncertainty which could affect sterling.
It is not clear how long the process of leaving the EU would take.
"The negotiations could take two years or much longer, so it could potentially weigh on the economy for a number of years," says Mr Hollingsworth.
"However, it may not be as bad as some have said, because during the negotiations we would still have free trade and the free movement of people… We wouldn't wake up on the 24th and find ourselves outside the EU."
How is the Bank of England preparing for the vote?
The Bank of England is unable to comment on the impact of a potential Brexit at the moment as it is in Purdah - the period leading up to an election during which government departments generally refrain from making new announcements.
However, it previously said it would inject money into the banking system to allay any
shortages following the referendum result.
In terms of monetary policy following a potential Brexit vote, inflation and a weakening economy could be big challenges for the Bank.
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Guest Mauro

This vote is going to be interesting.

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Can someone explain this to me? the UK is part of the european union, but they decided to keep the pound? I've never understood. Are they a kind of sort of member of the EU? Or a full on member that was just allowed to keep their currency?

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Can someone explain this to me? the UK is part of the european union, but they decided to keep the pound? I've never understood. Are they a kind of sort of member of the EU? Or a full on member that was just allowed to keep their currency?

In short

The UK joined the EEC - European Economic Community (embryonic single market version of the current EU) back in 1973, after fifteen years had elapsed since its foundation. They are a full on member of the EU yes, they just opted to keep the Pound Sterling when it came to prepare for the switch to a single currency back in the 90s, switch that effectively took place from 1999 onwards, 2002 in physical terms

THATCHERYESEUROPE_2439079c.jpg

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Can someone explain this to me? the UK is part of the european union, but they decided to keep the pound? I've never understood. Are they a kind of sort of member of the EU? Or a full on member that was just allowed to keep their currency?

There's one thing EU and another the Eurozone. Eurozone are the countries in the EU which use euro. Countries were free to use euro and it didn't affect their EU status. Sweden doesn't use euro either. Other countries either

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I don't think it will affect much if UK leaves the EU to be fair.

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There's one thing EU and another the Eurozone. Eurozone are the countries in the EU which use euro. Countries were free to use euro and it didn't affect their EU status. Sweden doesn't use euro either. Other countries either

Yes :thumbsup: and right now 19 out of 28 EU member states have the Euro as their currency. The problem with the Eurozone system, meaning the EU countries that share the € currency is that we do have a European Central Bank but we have no unified tributary and fiscal policy that is equal to all 19 € sharing states out of the 28 EU countries and basically that's one of the main reasons why the so called Eurozone crisis of 2009-2010 happened in the first place. It's a highly asymmetric, disjointed system. The issue here with the UK is that for years there has been a debate about how worthwhile it is for Britain to remain a EU member alltogether, let alone scrapping the Pound in favour of the Euro as their currency. The main point brought about those in favour of leaving are the excessive bureaucratization of decision making and interference from Brussels, particularly in regards to business regulation and immigration policies, whereas those that advocate a stay vote say that the UK will be extensively weakened in the international arena by a potential exit, both diplomatically and in terms of trade

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Already sent in my postal vote. No surprise that the whole issue has been reduced to a vile immigration debate among the plebeian masses.

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Interestingly, I was speaking to someone who is a big gambler and the bookies have 80% remain / 20% leave - he's big on data and he says bookies are way more accurate than polls as people are actually putting their money down.

This could be another election surprise where the polls show one thing but the reality is way different.

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Guest

I'm bored of this scare mongering. Reports of a less than .5 percent drop in the pound? Hilarious.

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Where did this idea come from to exit from the EU ?

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Where did this idea come from to exit from the EU ?

There have been constant complaints in the media over the years about the power of EU and it overruling UK laws.

From what I remember, as part of the conservative election campaign for the previous election (2010), David Cameron, who is now our Prime Minister, said he would hold a referendum for the nation to vote on staying in the EU. He is pro-remain so it was not the plan to exit but the chance to give the people a say.

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The best comment I heard was on the radio. I think the station was radio 2. When discussing it a guy in his 50's/60's said 'Why am I not scared to leave the EU? Well that's because I lived a perfectly fine life before entering it.'. It really won't make THAT much of a difference to our lives. It's like the milennium bug all over again.

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There have been constant complaints in the media over the years about the power of EU and it overruling UK laws.

From what I remember, as part of the conservative election campaign for the previous election (2010), David Cameron, who is now our Prime Minister, said he would hold a referendum for the nation to vote on staying in the EU. He is pro-remain so it was not the plan to exit but the chance to give the people a say.

oh I remember now.

Yes the outruling of national laws is a major problem in many EU countries actually.

Also as far as I know, UK also gets a special benefit from EU and some countries are against it and wanted to cancel this benefit. That might be a reason aswell.

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Guest Rachelle of London

I'm bored of this scare mongering. Reports of a less than .5 percent drop in the pound? Hilarious.

:rotfl:

What about being worse off £3000 by the year 2036. :lmao: isn't that inflation though

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Guest

Omg this is like those global warming reports that discuss temperature rises of 0.05 degrees and say in thirty years we will be flooded worldwide. Lucky guy material. :-/

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Are you people ACTUALLY considering voting 'leave'? If so, then I really do despair.

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Guest Rachelle of London

Are you people ACTUALLY considering voting 'leave'? If so, then I really do despair.

I'm voting to stay but can't believe some of the scaremongering. It's actually hilarious. Apparently if we leave the EU there will be a nuclear war. Come on. You can't say David Cameron isn't giving you a little chuckle?

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Guest Rachelle of London

What am I gonna do with my .5% of a £ more when we stay in the EU. Might buy myself a nice car. Or treat myself to a trip to Tahiti :lmao:

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I'm voting to stay but can't believe some of the scaremongering. It's actually hilarious. Apparently if we leave the EU there will be a nuclear war. Come on. You can't say David Cameron isn't giving you a little chuckle?

Both sides are as bad as each other in the 'project fear' stakes. The only good thing about a stay outcome would be Cameron's resignation. But then god forbid that bumbling Boris would somehow make it into number 10. I'll predict a 60-40 stay result.

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Guest Rachelle of London

Both sides are as bad as each other in the 'project fear' stakes. The only good thing about a stay outcome would be Cameron's resignation. But then god forbid that bumbling Boris would somehow make it into number 10. I'll predict a 60-40 stay result.

I don't even think it'll be that close. The people screaming to leave probably won't even vote. We won't leave EU

I am eager to see the amount of jobs that will be created if we do stay. :rotfl: oh David.

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Both sides are as bad as each other in the 'project fear' stakes. The only good thing about a stay outcome would be Cameron's resignation. But then god forbid that bumbling Boris would somehow make it into number 10. I'll predict a 60-40 stay result.

I hope you're right. I hope it's a stay result.

What am I gonna do with my .5% of a £ more when we stay in the EU. Might buy myself a nice car. Or treat myself to a trip to Tahiti :lmao:

Don't transfer it over to $, whatever you do. If this percentage is correct, I've just lost a shit load of my USD investments.

:gross:

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The only good thing about a stay outcome would be Cameron's resignation.

He won't resign.

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I am eager to see the amount of jobs that will be created if we do stay. :rotfl: oh David.

He's such a fucking fat disgusting piece of Tory shite I can't even begin. Just looking at his greasy face makes me queasy!!

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He won't resign.

So he says. But if it was a leave result, his position would be untenable. Half his back-benchers are already snapping at his heels.

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Guest Rachelle of London

He won't resign.

Even his own father in law said he won't resign.

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So he says. But if it was a leave result, his position would be untenable. Half his back-benchers are already snapping at his heels.

He'll see it through because they're preparing to unleash that poor man's Thatcher aka Theresa May on us :bad:

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He himself said he won't resign, but he's not gonna say otherwise. he won't willingly go obviously, but if he presides over the government that takes the country out of the EU, then his days will be numbered.

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Theresa May

God I hate her.

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The next prime minister of the UK:

theresamay.jpg

I despair, I truly do.

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