Littlebastard Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The protester didnt let her talk at all. Attention ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebastard Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Chris Christie just endorsed Donald Trump saying he's the only guy who can defeat Hillary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elayman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Chris Christie just endorsed Donald Trump saying he's the only guy who can defeat Hillary. https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/ Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association. Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election. Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula. “The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.” Norpoth’s primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent. Norpoth began the presentation with an introduction of the potential matchups in the general election, including a hypothetical Sanders vs. Trump general election. “When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.” Norpoth said referring to Trump and Sanders, as many alumni in the audience laughed. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.” As the presentation continued, laughter turned to silence as Norpoth forecasted a 61 percent chance of a Republican win in the general election. This forecast was made using the electoral cycle model, which studies a pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office. The model does not assume who would be the party nominees or the conditions of the country at the time. “You think ‘This is crazy. How can anything come up with something like that?’ ” Norpoth said “But that’s exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in ‘96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012.” Norpoth then added data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries to narrow down the forecast to specific candidates. As he brought up the first slide with matchup results, the silence was broken by muttering from the audience. “Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent [of the popular vote]. This is almost too much to believe.” Norpoth said, with a few members of the audience laughing nervously. “The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’ ” The primary model predicts a Trump victory with such certainty due to Trump’s relatively high success in the Republican primaries, Norpoth said. Clinton, in comparison, is in an essential tie with Sanders in the Democratic primaries. As a result, Sanders would also lose to Trump in a similar landslide if Sanders were to be the Democratic nominee, Norpoth said. In contrast, Norpoth forecasted that a hypothetical presidential race with Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio on the Republican ticket would be a much closer race. The results showed Clinton with a 55 percent chance of winning the race against Cruz or Rubio with a 0.3 percent lead in the popular vote. Norpoth’s model showed Sanders losing against Rubio or Cruz with a 0.6 percent gap in the popular vote, giving a Rubio or Cruz ticket a 60 percent chance of winning against the Vermont senator. Norpoth added that while the non-Trump Republican ticket would be much more unlikely to win the general election due to differences in the popular vote and the electoral college vote, there is almost no chance that Trump would lose the electoral college vote with his forecasted lead in the popular vote.“If you win by 54 percent [of the popular vote], you have a big majority in the electoral college,” Norpoth said. “Nobody who has ever gotten 54 percent has lost.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sloane Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 QUEEN I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glindathegood Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Imagine if Trump was the President and Chris Christie was the Vice President!! If that happens, I may have to leave the country. They are both so boorish and embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raider of the lost Ark Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 America has already seen its worst days. Ronald Reagan. Are you all that fucking young, ignorant and naive????? Not from the U.S. but old enough to remember a few things or at least can put them in context. I actually get very mad when people try to make Reagan one of the best presidents ever. Rewriting history at its worst. Especially the crude idea that it was Reagan who ended the Cold War and is responsible for the fall of the Berlin Wall. "Mr Gorbachev, tear down that wall!" Yeah right. As if Gorbachev had any power in regards to that, considering the Berlin wall was an official border between East- and West Germany. The Soviets did not built it. In fact the Soviets did not really have any influence on internal affairs in East Germany. It was basically an army base just as much West Germany was an army base for the French, the British and U.S. troups. And East Germany actually gave a f*ck to what Ronald Reagan had to say. If anyone is responsible for the fall of the Berlin Wall it were the people of East Germany bringing their own government down. In a peaceful way. The idea that Reagan opened Brandenburg Gate is just as much an urban myth as David Hasselhoff opened it. Don't even get me started on SDI, pershings, what he did to US farmers, excessive bugdet overruns and of course AIDS. And it is no secret that Reagan had to be briefed on everything by his advisors, just as much as GWB jr. many years later. Both are the worst presidents the U.S. ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skin Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/ Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association. Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election. Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula. “The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.” Norpoth’s primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent. Norpoth began the presentation with an introduction of the potential matchups in the general election, including a hypothetical Sanders vs. Trump general election. “When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.” Norpoth said referring to Trump and Sanders, as many alumni in the audience laughed. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.” As the presentation continued, laughter turned to silence as Norpoth forecasted a 61 percent chance of a Republican win in the general election. This forecast was made using the electoral cycle model, which studies a pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office. The model does not assume who would be the party nominees or the conditions of the country at the time. “You think ‘This is crazy. How can anything come up with something like that?’ ” Norpoth said “But that’s exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in ‘96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012.” Norpoth then added data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries to narrow down the forecast to specific candidates. As he brought up the first slide with matchup results, the silence was broken by muttering from the audience. “Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent [of the popular vote]. This is almost too much to believe.” Norpoth said, with a few members of the audience laughing nervously. “The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’ ” The primary model predicts a Trump victory with such certainty due to Trump’s relatively high success in the Republican primaries, Norpoth said. Clinton, in comparison, is in an essential tie with Sanders in the Democratic primaries. As a result, Sanders would also lose to Trump in a similar landslide if Sanders were to be the Democratic nominee, Norpoth said. In contrast, Norpoth forecasted that a hypothetical presidential race with Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio on the Republican ticket would be a much closer race. The results showed Clinton with a 55 percent chance of winning the race against Cruz or Rubio with a 0.3 percent lead in the popular vote. Norpoth’s model showed Sanders losing against Rubio or Cruz with a 0.6 percent gap in the popular vote, giving a Rubio or Cruz ticket a 60 percent chance of winning against the Vermont senator. Norpoth added that while the non-Trump Republican ticket would be much more unlikely to win the general election due to differences in the popular vote and the electoral college vote, there is almost no chance that Trump would lose the electoral college vote with his forecasted lead in the popular vote.“If you win by 54 percent [of the popular vote], you have a big majority in the electoral college,” Norpoth said. “Nobody who has ever gotten 54 percent has lost.” Oh please. Soooooo many "experts" come out of the woodwork around election time with their so called accurate predictions. I recall a lot of them saying Obama didn't stand a chance in hell of being re-elected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebastard Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Exactly Skin. Hillary vs Trump. I like her chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skin Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Exactly Skin. Hillary vs Trump. I like her chances. I also remember an "expert" based on models he used back in 2004 saying Kerry would win big also. Of course at that time I was younger and bought into this shit, but have since learned that most of these people just want attention and are just blowing hot air out of their ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebastard Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 every journalist or "expert" just wants attention in the end so i don't buy any of these experts. We'll see but i don't see Trump winning the general election at all. He won't win key states like Florida, California or NY. He won't have the black or latino vote. The nomination yes and it's done but not the general election c'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightshade Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 No nominee will win without getting at least 40% of the Hispanic vote. Trump - or any other nominee on the GOP side - is going to have a REALLY hard time hitting that threshold. Dubya got that (barely) in 2004. No other GOP candidate has hit it since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elayman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I didn't post it because this guy is the gold standard, it just seemed an interesting read that was getting wide attention. Norpath himself acknowledged that results from Super Tuesday might alter the calculations and says he plans to factor those into future projections. New Hampshire probably is a better predictor of results in the average presidential election but the fact that Sanders did well in part because he was from a neighboring state is complicating. There are a ton of still unknown factors that could swing it one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skin Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Well one thing we know for sure. Trump supporters are going to show up to the polls in droves. Like I have SAID I DONT GIVE A SHIT IF YOU DONT LIKE HILLARY! GET YOUR ASS OUT AND VOTE!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elayman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 No nominee will win without getting at least 40% of the Hispanic vote. Trump - or any other nominee on the GOP side - is going to have a REALLY hard time hitting that threshold. Dubya got that (barely) in 2004. No other GOP candidate has hit it since. I'm not sure there is a magic number -- Romney wouldn't have won with even 40% of the Hispanic vote. What would make a real difference would be if Republicans increased their share of either all ethnic and racial groups or white voters by just a few percentage points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightshade Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'm not sure there is a magic number -- Romney wouldn't have won with even 40% of the Hispanic vote. What would make a real difference would be if Republicans increased their share of either all ethnic and racial groups or white voters by just a few percentage points. A greater turnout among other ethnic groups, yes. Increasing turnout by a few points by white voters won't cut it. What this tells me is that turnout will be less important for Democratic victory as demography changes in their favor, though they must maintain their strong voting margins among blacks, Hispanics and Asians. For Republicans, the latter projections show that they cannot count primarily on white support to take the White House. Even assuming high 2004 turnout rates and 2012 Republican voting margins for whites, they cannot win unless they also peel off more votes among minorities. In this regard, demography indeed becomes destiny. Sorry GOP, whitey can't save your ass anymore. You're gonna have to grow up and learn to treat everyone equally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaElectronica Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I think if Bernie loses Massachusetts on Super Tuesday, I think he's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elayman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 A greater turnout among other ethnic groups, yes. Increasing turnout by a few points by white voters won't cut it. What this tells me is that turnout will be less important for Democratic victory as demography changes in their favor, though they must maintain their strong voting margins among blacks, Hispanics and Asians. For Republicans, the latter projections show that they cannot count primarily on white support to take the White House. Even assuming high 2004 turnout rates and 2012 Republican voting margins for whites, they cannot win unless they also peel off more votes among minorities. In this regard, demography indeed becomes destiny. Sorry GOP, whitey can't save your ass anymore. You're gonna have to grow up and learn to treat everyone equally. I don't know what kind of numbers Trump is pulling with nonwhites but even with a 3-4% increase in white votes which is very unlikely they are going to have to do better than Romney with minorities that is for sure. Assuming something like 9 or 10% of the black vote, 30+% of Hispanics, Asians and other ethnic groups a 2% increase in whites would be a huge victory. And I do hate racial politics by the way, just make the basic case of how your agenda is going to improve life for everyone and let the chips fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pud Whacker Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 trump will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skin Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 I think if Bernie loses Massachusetts on Super Tuesday, I think he's done. I think if he loses tonight it wont be good either. I could be dead wrong but I feel like momentum on his side has reached its peak. I mean there are polls out showing Bernie leading Hillary nationally but that doesn't seem to be translating to primary wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whyme? Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Hillary must win in Ohio to become president. If you do the electoral math, that's the only state that matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightshade Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Hillary must win in Ohio to become president. If you do the electoral math, that's the only state that matters Hmmmm...I am not sure I agree with that statement. If she could carry Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa (plus the regular big blue states), she can afford to lose Ohio AND Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elayman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 trump will win. Love him or hate him, Trump is certainly changing the political landscape. The following spreadsheet is very revealing and makes it clear that Donald Trump’s impact on voter turnout exceeds what Barack Obama achieved. Almost a quarter of a million fewer Democrats getting out to vote this year than 2008 and close to half a million more on the Republican side. Republican 2016 Democrat 2016 Republican 2008 Democrat 2008 Iowa 186,874 171,109 119,200 239,872 New Hampshire 284,120 250,983 238979 287542 South Carolina 737,917 431196 532227 Nevada Caucus 75,216 12,002 44,315 10649 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebastard Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Hillary projected by CNN wins SC!!! YAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebastard Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Hillary won 84% of the african american vote! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellenger1981 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The protester didnt let her talk at all. Attention ho. Does it matter? She would have veered off topic anyway. Best of all, she would have done it with a straight face and her supporters would have clapped for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebastard Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 She CRUSHED him. Bigger turn out than when Obama was running. More black turn out too. Pretty great for Hillary. Clinton vs Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Wow, SC was a landslide for HRC. What are the states that are actually looking close for Super Tuesday? Oklahoma and CO? I've read one poll giving MA to Sanders, and one for Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skin Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 Congrats to Hillary for winning big. Man this really could end up being Trump vs Hillary. Who the hell would have ever envisioned that not too long ago? I hope Hillary wipes the floor with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Congrats to Hillary for winning big. Man this really could end up being Trump vs Hillary. Who the hell would have ever envisioned that not too long ago? I hope Hillary wipes the floor with him. I've kind of felt it would come down to them. Not that things can't change; this is early. I'm not following the Republican circus closely but have read several "Rubio losing steam fast" type things today. Is he really that far behind Cruz for second place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skin Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 I've kind of felt it would come down to them. Not that things can't change; this is early. I'm not following the Republican circus closely but have read several "Rubio losing steam fast" type things today. Is he really that far behind Cruz for second place? If anything Rubio is the one in 2nd right now as far as I know..... Pussy Riot to Write Tribute To Bernie And A Song For “D*ckhead” Trump By Colin Taylor Posted onFebruary 28, 2016 The momentum of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ political movement has gone global. Nadezhda Tolokonnikova (better known as Nadya Tolokno) of the Russian feminist punk-rock and anti-Putin political activist group Pussy Riot visited Washington D.C. yesterday to attend the libertarian gathering of the International Students for Liberty Conference – but made a stop at Bernie Sander’s campaign headquarters to show her support and make some special announcements. A “huge” fan of Bernie Sanders, Ms. Tolokno said that she was preparing a “love letter” to America’s populist champion in the form of a song, inspired by his policy proposals – especially on healthcare and Social Security – and the “energy and emotion” of his campaign. She believes his political revolution is historic no matter how the election goes, tweeting out that “people can sense the truth when they get to hear it…¡Viva los revolucionarios! ¡Viva Bernie!” She is also writing a song attacking the bigoted demagogue that leads the Republican field, Donald Trump, joking that “I have several texts about Trump right now…If you go through the history on my browser, it will be like Urban Dictionary, ‘asshole synonym,’ ‘douchebag synonym,’ ‘d*ckhead rhyme.’ She tore into the abrasive business tycoon and rabble-rousing racist, saying that: “Trump, as a man who has called women fat pigs, and whores, and sluts if he doesn’t like them, and as a person who wants to send away all Muslims — I mean, what’s wrong with this religion? I was in prison because I was supposedly against Christianity, but I wasn’t. And I think it is fascism to persecute people, to send people away from the country where they live now…It is fascism. And I think Putin has a lot in common with Trump. They have a lot in common with Hitler…I know there’s a lot of differences, but still. It is dangerous [when] somebody announces that he hates somebody just because of religion, or race, or gender.” The 26-year-old democratic socialist gained international recognition when she was arrested with fellow artist Maria Alyokhina at a Moscow cathedral in 2012 for performing a “punk prayer” (a song titled “Putin zazhigayet kostry” or “Putin Lights Up The Fires“) that criticized the Russian dictator for his repression and corruption and the Russian Orthodox Church for their complicity in re-establishing authoritarianism in the Russia Federation. Charged with “hooliganism” in a show trial that would’ve made Stalin proud, she spent a year in the IK-14 penal colony before being released in 2013 as part of a public image rehabilitation effort by Putin before the Sochi Olympics. Having suffered the harsh oppression of Vladimir Putin’s kleptocracy firsthand, Ms. Tolokno knows a fascist when she sees one – and we would do well to heed both her celebration of Bernie Sanders’ vision and condemnation of Donald Trump’s dangerously divisive and authoritarian rhetoric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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