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PREDICT: "Celebration First-Week Sales in USA


HolidayGuy

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I think it will sell about 72K on its first week in the US but I think it will have legs and stay in the Billboard 200 charts for 20 weeks or so.

I'm expecting something like this

week 1: 72K

week 2: 30K

week 3: 22K

week 4: 19K

week 5: 16K

week 6: 17K

week 7: 30K

week 8: 40K

week 9: 30K

week 10: 25K

week 11: 50K

week 12: 50K

week 13: 18K and then go down from there

I would love for the first week sales to be above 100K but I'm doubting it this time around

That's 419k.

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Its funny but Music sold just under twice as much more in the USA at the end. Taking into account the fact that USA population is 5 times more. It sold 175% more in the USA first week sales but just under 100% less at the end - what went wrong?

WOW - AL has the more reflective figures of the difference between USA and UK population but at the end it sold just over 100% more in the USA

COADF's experienced the least drop in % but has very close UK-US sales.

Music

USA: 420,000

UKL 152,000

**Sold roughly 175% more in the USA than UK in the first week.

GHV2

USA: 150,000

UK: 88,000(?)

**Sold roughly 70% more in USA than UK in first week

American Life

USA: 241,000

UK: 65,000(?)

** Sold roughly 270% more in the USA than UK in first week

Confessions on a Dance Floor

USA: 350,000

UK: 217,000

**Sold roughly 61% more in USA than UK in first week

Hard Candy

USA: 280,000

UK: 94,000(?)

**Sold roughly 198% more in USA than UK in first week

So, let's say the USA figure ends up 65% higher than in the UK- if it sells 60K in the UK, that would be 99,000. :shock: Keep in mind that "Celebration" is a hit single in the UK, but we don't really know what impact that has on a compilation, though. If it's lucky, the ratio will be a little higher..

COADF's UK debut was astounding.

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...Yeah i remember Confessions' opening week, i was totally blown away! I think its her second best opener before IMC which did much higher in 1990.

In the UK i reckon Celebration will debut at #1 with 75k sold

In the US, hopefully around 120k

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All of her major releases have hit the top 10. Thse have not:

You Can Dance: No. 14

Evita (single-disc): No. 167

Remixed and Revisited EP: No. 115

I'm Going to tell You a Secret: No. 33

The Confessions Tour: No. 15

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If the Aguilera virus can move 74,000 copies of her "greatest hits" last fall (and only available at the Target chain to boot), surely Madonna can do equal to or better, yes?

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^She had a single that fared better than "Celebration," but, yeah, I would think so.

The album's going to open near 70K in the UK- the album SHOULD sell comfortably more in the USA, just going by past trends. If it were to sell less in the USA than the UK, that would be a big story for the press, as that has never happened (at least in the era of actual sales tracking).

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I look at amazon and Barbra has two versions in the top 10...the other is number 1..and on itunes..Barbra is also ahead of Mariah and Madonna is not in the top 200... :thumbsdown:

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I look at amazon and Barbra has two versions in the top 10...the other is number 1..and on itunes..Barbra is also ahead of Mariah and Madonna is not in the top 200... :thumbsdown:

You're mistaken.

On itunes - Barbra is at 52; Mariah is at 67 and Madonna is at 115

On amazon - Barbra is at 1 and 6; Madonna is at around 14 and Mariah is at around 17.

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iTunes pre-order rankings are odd- when first available for preorder, an album climbs up the chart. It then eases down, and it can be way down the chart, and then once Tuesday hits, it instantly appear in the top 10.

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