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Predict 1st week U.S. sales for HC!!!!!!


Ciccone's Cheeks
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ok, here we go, I say 350-375 (possibly a bit more than less) and a number #1 debut for maybe 2 weeks (depending on who, or if theres any competition the week after). 'Cause its *M* this gaurantees her 175-200k min even with a 1st shit single (American Life) LOL.2nd and equally important in this case is she has a RADIO hit, best positive buzz and publciity in AGES. Predictions etc...*NO LAMBS/down-lo Lambs allowed* in this thread lol.

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cmon now, that's LOW.

COAD opened with 375k, no??

ya exactly lol. COAD also had a leak around 1 week b4 if I remeber with MINIMAL airplay. logistically it seems unrealistic that shell do any lower than 300k. Worst case scenerio she does, even w/ 300k she still has her 7th #1 album :)

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Guest Bad Robot

I'll say 320,000.

COADF opened with about 350k. That was when the market was MUCH MUCH better. Opening with 350k today would probably be the equivalent of opening with 500k when COADF was released.

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I'll say 320,000.

COADF opened with about 350k. That was when the market was MUCH MUCH better. Opening with 350k today would probably be the equivalent of opening with 500k when COADF was released.

what lol? COAD was only released 2.5 yrs ago. Market has changed a tad, no more than that. Maybe you mean when American Life was released.

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^ def agree. reason being theres just this positive aura in the air for her w/in the media lately (R&R HOF, more random coverage on all the entertaiment shows in quite some time, WAY more that Ive seen in recent years and just more or less ass kissin stuff Ive seen in a while etc..) which is WAY more blatant than during COAD (her 1st album RIGHT after her biggest disaster, mixed in with the minimal airplay and lack of buzz.).

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Guest moboy

#1 with 425,000 if not more. I think some of the teens that never bought her, esp. during the first week will be out.

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#1 with 425,000 if not more. I think some of the teens that never bought her, esp. during the first week will be out.

So many of the positive comments I've seen written about the 4M video on whatever websites are streaming it are obviously from kids... it's so odd to see... I wonder if today's parents would be OK buying their kids a Madonna CD with that cover?

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#1 with 425,000 if not more. I think some of the teens that never bought her, esp. during the first week will be out.

agree thats the deal here. She has mainstream AIRPLAY, 1st time since DAD lol= rich suburbian Teens/*TWEENS* who even if casual, "new " clueless M fans beg, beg, beg parents to buy them (and get their way like Paris would) that catchy song on the radio by the older white woman whos like British speaking/ foreign and a minority *yet is singin with the dreamy JT* amounts to adding on 1000s of extra albums scanned LOL

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Of course it's going to debut at #1.

I just checked the weekly circulars for this week.

Guess who's abum is on sale for $9.99 for a second week????

Yup. Mariah's E=MC2.

discounted/bargain bin kinda babe Mimi is lol!! **oops no offense YUMMY LOL ;)

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Guest Bad Robot
what lol? COAD was only released 2.5 yrs ago. Market has changed a tad, no more than that. Maybe you mean when American Life was released.

No, the market has changed WAY more than a tad.

2008 to date: -12% from 2007

2007: -15% from 2006

2006: -7% from 2005

So, the equivalent #s if you applied these drops to weekly sales figures:

2005: 500k

2006: 465k

2007: 395k

2008: 348k

Funny, I was actually making a guess at 350k = 500k in the past 3 years. Turns out that is pretty much dead-on.

The music industry has been in outright freefall the past 2-3 years.

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Guest Bad Robot

P.S. For the record, pretty much every time Madonna has released an album and forums like this guess about debut sales, about 95% of the people WAY overguess. I'd be happy to be proved wrong, but while M will almost definitely debut at #1, it will probably be with lower sales than most guesses here! I'd wager that Music will always be her biggest opener at 420k.

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No, the market has changed WAY more than a tad.

2008 to date: -12% from 2007

2007: -15% from 2006

2006: -7% from 2005

So, the equivalent #s if you applied these drops to weekly sales figures:

2005: 500k

2006: 465k

2007: 395k

2008: 348k

Funny, I was actually making a guess at 350k = 500k in the past 3 years. Turns out that is pretty much dead-on.

The music industry has been in outright freefall the past 2-3 years.

oh my lol. solid, valid points there. Dunno how the hell u did that but Im convinced lol

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P.S. For the record, pretty much every time Madonna has released an album and forums like this guess about debut sales, about 95% of the people WAY overguess.

So true.

An opening comparable to COAD's 350K would be great.

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