Guest marsha Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 (edited) Posted by botoxic: Based on airplay through yesterday, Madonna needs to sell this many copies more than her competition in order to outrank them on this week's Hot 100 (songs are listed in order of "threat level," plus I've included my own take on Madonna's chances): 1. Leona - 37,000 copies (Madonna has no chance) 2. Jordin - 72,000 copies (Madonna has little or no chance) 3. Usher - 99,000 copies (40% chance) 4. Lil Wayne - 43,000 copies (50% chance) 5. Mariah - 84,000 copies (55% chance) 6. Ray J - 77,000 copies (65% chance) My guess - 4M moves 180,000 copies this week and ends up at #4 (unbulleted) on the Hot 100 can't believe she has to sell 84000 more units than Mimic and 99000 more than the usher! "Touch me Boris" is not the most requested song, not the best rated... damned... the gap is so huge and 4M is hot, increasing day after day... radio sucks anyway, I think she shoudn't have problems outselling figures from Usher, Carey and Ray J. We can expect 4M to be 3-4. 2 would be great but 'd a miracle. #1 next week! Edited April 16, 2008 by marsha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gus Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 We can expect 4M to be 3-4. 2 would be great but 'd a miracle. #1 next week! I think 4M will have the best shot at reaching the top the week of the album release, the maxi single is also out that week so that's going to help a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catboy Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 I think 4M will have the best shot at reaching the top the week of the album release, the maxi single is also out that week so that's going to help a little bit. Technically that would be her last chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest marsha Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 Technically that would be her last chance I pray Mimi will fuck up "Buy Butane" at Idols. The second version of "Touch me one-armed" is Top 30 on itunes. nightmare has to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catboy Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 I pray Mimi will fuck up "Buy Butane" at Idols. The second version of "Touch me one-armed" is Top 30 on itunes. nightmare has to end. i don't see her at #30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest marsha Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 i don't see her at #30 I see it at #28 (album version) Bye bye is at #48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 I am so glad Bleeding Love is waning fast now and 4M is still strong... that's one less competitor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catboy Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 I am so glad Bleeding Love is waning fast now and 4M is still strong... that's one less competitor... It seems No Air will be the main competitor from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 It seems No Air will be the main competitor from now for this week's chart report, YES... but for next week's chart report (or sales and airplay of this week), NO... it's also fast plummeting in downloads, the AI Gives back effect is totally gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tir69 Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 Leona sold 223.000 download this week , come backs nr 1 , I hope madonna is around 200.000 copies sold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattcho Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 (edited) What I originally wrote below was a false alarm! This is for the Pop 100! _____________________________________________________________ Heard from an insider that... 4M is #2 this week! Mariah drops to #4. Leona #1. Hope this holds true! - Matt Edited April 16, 2008 by mattcho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 Leona: 223.000 + 84.000 = 307.000 Madonna: 198.000 + 44.000 = 242.000 Lil Wayne: 189.000 + 89.000 = 278.000 Jordin: 153.000 + 120.000 = 273.000 Ray J: 125.000 + 125.000 = 250.000 Mariah: 122.000 + 131.000 = 253.000 Usher: 121.000 + 148.000 = 269.000 #1: Leona 307k #2: Lil 278k #3: Jordin 273k #4: Usher 269k #5: Mariah 253k #6: Ray J 250k #7: Madonna 242k SERIOUSLY, IT'S A SHAME THAT 4 MINUTES LOW AUDIENCE ON USA RADIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tir69 Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 Heard from an insider that... 4M is #2 this week! Mariah drops to #4. Leona #1. Hope this holds true! - Matt I think it's impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebigham Posted April 16, 2008 Author Share Posted April 16, 2008 Heard from an insider that... 4M is #2 this week! Mariah drops to #4. Leona #1. Hope this holds true! - Matt This is for Digital sales, NOT the Hot 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 looks like this is it... using BDS and Download sales 1. Bleeding Love 2. Lollipop - 100K?? + 190K = 290M 3. No Air - 112M + 153K = 265M 4. Love In This Club - 137M + 121K = 258M 5. Touch My Body - 123M +122K = 245M 6. Sexy Can I - 115M + 125K = 240M 7. 4 Minutes - 40M +198K =238 I don't know about LOLLIPOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Lecter Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 FARCE OF A CHART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 FARCE OF A CHART I wouldn't worry though... it is clear that MADONNA lost position because it lost 18k in sales, had it maintained 217k, it's at #3... anyway, next week we can see a rebound, download sales will really dictate 4M's fate... Right now, I don't dream about 4M reaching 50M anymore... LOLLIPOP is the main competition next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ercos Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 am sure the dip in the Hot100 is temporary as airplay is someow steady and sales will rebound because of the remixes and the upcoming album release. we will see 4M in the top 10 still for the next 3 or 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 am sure the dip in the Hot100 is temporary as airplay is someow steady and sales will rebound because of the remixes and the upcoming album release. we will see 4M in the top 10 still for the next 3 or 4 weeks. THIS IS GUARANTEED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apples388 Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 No US Number 1 ever again for Madge then. Oh well, at least she tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 Leona: 223.000 + 84.000 = 307.000 Madonna: 198.000 + 44.000 = 242.000 Lil Wayne: 189.000 + 89.000 = 278.000 Jordin: 153.000 + 120.000 = 273.000 Ray J: 125.000 + 125.000 = 250.000 Mariah: 122.000 + 131.000 = 253.000 Usher: 121.000 + 148.000 = 269.000 #1: Leona 307k #2: Lil 278k #3: Jordin 273k #4: Usher 269k #5: Mariah 253k #6: Ray J 250k #7: Madonna 242k SERIOUSLY, IT'S A SHAME THAT 4 MINUTES LOW AUDIENCE ON USA RADIO. Streaming may have a decent impact. I'm gonna cross fingers that M pulls up to #5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catboy Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 No US Number 1 ever again for Madge then. Oh well, at least she tried. Sad but true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 No US Number 1 ever again for Madge then. Oh well, at least she tried. Too soon to tell. If it doesn't hit #1 by the week of the album release, then we can say at that point her chances are pretty much gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctorjosh Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 I think it's just outrageous that a song with such massive sales is struggling at radio compared to other songs that can't generate the same amuount of sales with such massive airplay. This clearly highlights the inadequacies of the Billboard chart system that puts so much emphasis on airplay, which is obviously dictated by a select few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bebe Glazer Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 I think it's just outrageous that a song with such massive sales is struggling at radio compared to other songs that can't generate the same amuount of sales with such massive airplay. This clearly highlights the inadequacies of the Billboard chart system that puts so much emphasis on airplay, which is obviously dictated by a select few. Very true. Billboard should start counting the sales/airplay ratio which, I think, would be a better way to measure a song's popularity than adding up two inadequate figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest iMisto Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 Too soon to tell. If it doesn't hit #1 by the week of the album release, then we can say at that point her chances are pretty much gone. It WONT. People are crazy if they think the album release is gunna help THAT much. 4M peaked way too fast. Sales will drop while airplay finally peaks, which will only act as a trade-off... Not benefitting the song. It's over. It might bounce around in the top ten for a while, but number 1 is gone. Anybody who says she "tried" is BLIND. The fuck she did! She obviously has made too much money to truly care about chart positions. If she 'really' wanted a number 1, she would have held off on releasing the download, she would have booked a show with oprah, and she would have promoted the hell out of 4M. We got some radio interviews... That she CALLED in for. I can only hope she is holding off promotion for the next single... But I'm losing hope. (bitter-boy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catboy Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 At least her sales didn't decrease too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 It WONT. People are crazy if they think the album release is gunna help THAT much. 4M peaked way too fast. Sales will drop while airplay finally peaks, which will only act as a trade-off... Not benefitting the song. It's over. It might bounce around in the top ten for a while, but number 1 is gone. Sorry but my nearly 15 years of following the charts with detail tell you otherwise. The song's sales will spike the week of the album release. Its total points that week will probably be its highest point total of any of its week. It will come down completely to just how strong the other songs are at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt420 Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 No US Number 1 ever again for Madge then. Oh well, at least she tried. There is still some hope for 4M but if she can't do it with this then unless BB changes it's rules again and stops letting lame ass radio programmers determine what is played, despite what the people are buying then yeah, she will probably never reach the top again. This system has got to change. How does a song that is the #2 selling single with 198,000 copies, steadily increased in airplay all week, #1 on call out scores for a couple of weeks now STILL fall down the main chart. Basically, in order for Madonna to have a decent shot at number one she pretty much has to sell unusually high numbers. She can't just sell "normally" like her competition....shame. Hopefully by the next album release, BB will have re-evaluated it's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest missy bi_tch Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 No US Number 1 ever again for Madge then. Oh well, at least she tried. We kinda knew that way back in 2000 after Music.. It's good to have a 37th top 10 and a top 3 at that rejoice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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