thebigham Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madddness Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Question: So, let's say 4M debuts next week on Billboard Hot 100. I'll be optimistic and say at No. 35 (I know nothing about what factors into this determination other than based on the Mediabase chart, I think she could be at 35 on that chart after a week of airplay). This would be due to airplay only. Then the following week iTunes sales will factor in. Is it conceivable that 4M could jump top 10 or top 5 in the second week? Hung Up had a huge jump once iTunes sales factored in. Perhaps this was their strategy all along....climbing the chart as fast as hell. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiveItToMe Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Question: So, let's say 4M debuts next week on Billboard Hot 100. I'll be optimistic and say at No. 35 (I know nothing about what factors into this determination other than based on the Mediabase chart, I think she could be at 35 on that chart after a week of airplay). This would be due to airplay only. I'm pretty sure the first 2 days of downloads(March 24th - March 25th) will be factored into next week's chart position although I don't know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitch Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 I think 35 is a bit too high, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebigham Posted March 20, 2008 Author Share Posted March 20, 2008 NO, sales are Monday to Sunday. Next week will be airplay only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 NO, sales are Monday to Sunday. Next week will be airplay only. ok so is this right? SALES (MONDAY to SUNDAY) AIRPLAY (WEDNESDAY to TUESDAY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolidayGuy Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 That is correct- that may have been mentioned, oh, I dunno, 763 times or so in this forum. No way she'd debut as high as 35 from airplay alone. "Hung Up" debuted on Hot 100 AIrplay at No. 73 in its first full week, with around 15.5m audience (that coincided with first-week sales, though, too, resulting in the No. 20 Hot 100 entry). Next week, we definitely will see a debut on Top 40 Mainstream, the Pop 100, Pop 100 Airplay- and- depending on its audience the Hot 100 or Bubbling Under the Hot 100. Also, in the International section, the Digital chart, some Euro countries, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest chicagobull Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 (edited) what do you mean hot 100 bubbling under??? It will dubut at least on the top 50 next week....Its already around number 42 on airplay alone, mariah had similar numbers and debuted at number 57. Edited March 20, 2008 by chicagobull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 what do you mean hot 100 bubbling under??? It will dubut at least on the top 50 next week....Its already around number 42 on airplay alone, mariah had similar numbers and debuted at number 57. MARIAH had bigger numbers than what MADONNA is getting right now... MARIAH had URBAN, URBANAC and RHYTHMIC support... MADONNA only have POP support (and it's not full blast), some RHYTHMIC and no URBAN, plus some HOTAC... After March 25, I think MADONNA may debut at the HOT100 around lower than #85... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gus Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 what do you mean hot 100 bubbling under??? It will dubut at least on the top 50 next week....Its already around number 42 on airplay alone, mariah had similar numbers and debuted at number 57. I think you're confusing Billboard's Hot 100 airplay chat with Mediabase's pop chart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolidayGuy Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 4M should see a nice entry on the Pop 100 Airplay chart (which ranks songs based on audience from mainstream top 40 stations only). At the rate it's going (it has 5 days left to go), it should enter Hot 100 Airplay, too. Maybe in the 60s, at least? (HU debuted at 73 with 15.5m audience). That *could* bring it a lower-region Hot 100 debut. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 it is worth noting that MADONNA's huge debut (with downloads) will be known by APRIL 2, by APRIL 1 here's to hoping that her airplay is around 35M(BDS), all she needs to do is have a 80-90k lead in the nearest digital downloads competitor... and she'll be #1... I really hope TIMBERLAKE & TIMBALAND fans buy this song... it is also good that iTunes have the album version for sale, it includes TIMBALAND's parts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolidayGuy Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 If both versions are made available, that would be good, no doubt. But M outscanning Mimi by that much (if she does at all)? Would be highly shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 uhm, do you have first week download sales of Timberlake's FUTURESEX/LOVESOUNDS singles and Timbaland's SHOCK VALUE singles as well? Just for reference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gus Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Guys,i think expecting this song to debut or skyrocket to #1 in 2 weeks is totally unrealistic...i could see it happening in a slow chart week or maybe in a month or so if the song keeps on growing at this rate and really connects with the masses,but with only 2 weeks of airplay,no video and lets not forget the Mariah,Usher,Leona competition, i really don't see it happening at all.I mean,it would need to sell around 250,000 to be able to hit #1 in 2 weeks...do you really think that's going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Guys,i think expecting this song to debut or skyrocket to #1 in 2 weeks is totally unrealistic...i could see it happening in a slow chart week or maybe in a month or so if the song keeps on growing at this rate and really connects with the masses,but with only 2 weeks of airplay,no video and lets not forget the Mariah,Usher,Leona competition, i really don't see it happening at all.I mean,it would need to sell around 250,000 to be able to hit #1 in 2 weeks...do you really think that's going to happen? i know the UK, Denmark, Norway, Sweden is different but we saw it climb fast to #2 and #1 and it was released THE SAME WEEK TO RADIO... it is really hard to tell but it is a possibility... we will have a clearer picture by Wednesday next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebigham Posted March 21, 2008 Author Share Posted March 21, 2008 You are right, Gus. No one should expect a #1. A Top 10 is very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 4 Minutes will probably not debut on the Hot 100 next week. It will probably have a very big debut the week after (potentially top 20) with the first week of sales plus second week of airplay. I could see a scenario of 80,000 sold + 25m airplay. Not sure offhand where that would put the song on the Hot 100 but my guess is around #15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 I could see a scenario of 80,000 sold + 25m airplay. Not sure offhand where that would put the song on the Hot 100 but my guess is around #15. that would be around #9-#12, depends on the other song's download sales... which is very volatile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gus Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 i know the UK, Denmark, Norway, Sweden is different but we saw it climb fast to #2 and #1 and it was released THE SAME WEEK TO RADIO... it is really hard to tell but it is a possibility... Well yeah,Hung Up made it's way into the top 3 pretty fast but what i'm trying to say is that no one should expect 4min to outsell touch my body next week...the song has close to 100M Aud.Imp.,Mariah will perform the song on a very popular teen show on monday,the video's been out for a few weeks too... The only thing Madonna has going on for her is that they're 3 HUGE artist with a big fanbase...the song's still too new... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gus Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 (edited) No one should expect a #1. A Top 10 is very likely. I agree...i could even see 4min reaching the top 10 the week after going on sale,but #1?No... Edited March 21, 2008 by Gus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skin Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 80,000 downloads the first week? I see it doing WAYYYYY more than that its first week out. I wouldnt be suprised if it outsells MooMoo on itunes the first week but Mariah still being ahead on the charts because of radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horn Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 I think we should be projecting a more realistic figure or have a lower expectation on sales 'cos it may cause major uproar in chart forum by some individuals if 4M failed to live up to those out-of-this-world expectation (e.g. mtzlplk's 300K No offense ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 it's really hard to predict what MADONNA's first week sales will be... but she is capable of being #1 in downloads... it may be 2 1/2 years ago but hey, she still did it on her own... her first week sales with HUNG UP was approx. 30K (that was when #1 download songs sell around 55k-60k level), HUNG UP was released for downloads the same week it was released to US radio I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 I think we should be projecting a more realistic figure or have a lower expectation on sales 'cos it may cause major uproar in chart forum by some individuals if 4M failed to live up to those out-of-this-world expectation (e.g. mtzlplk's 300K No offense ). it's not a prediction nor an expectation, i am quite aware that such numbers occured only once, and it was during Christmas season... it was just a scenario that I put up for everyone to see how much MADONNA needs to be #1... honestly, as for now, I estimate 4MINUTES first-week download sales to be not lower than 100K but not higher than 130K... but it's only normal to hope a figure higher than that since T&T is on board this song... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bad Robot Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 I wouldn't expect much of opening sales, since the download is coming after only a week of airplay. Songs that have had huge sales debuts typically do so after like 6 weeks of airplay. I fully expect downloads to peak well after the first week. This song is not that widely known right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horn Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 it's not a prediction nor an expectation, i am quite aware that such numbers occured only once, and it was during Christmas season... it was just a scenario that I put up for everyone to see how much MADONNA needs to be #1... honestly, as for now, I estimate 4MINUTES first-week download sales to be not lower than 100K but not higher than 130K... but it's only normal to hope a figure higher than that since T&T is on board this song... I have one word for you: "Zezwer". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Zezwer is ok (basing from the posts I read in the charts-related threads), he's like me 5 years ago... but he will learn later on that it's futile to argue with radio's power to put down or build up artist and the listeners are completely helpless... it's either artists have to suck-up and be friends with program directors and DJs or have lots of money for payola for their songs to get really played... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebigham Posted March 21, 2008 Author Share Posted March 21, 2008 Billboard.com: '4 MINUTES' OF FAME Hi Keith, Madonna just released her new single "4 Minutes" featuring Justin Timberlake. Do you think American radio stations will play it along with other singles from her upcoming album "Hard Candy?" They shamelessly ignored (her last album) the great "Confessions on a Dancefloor." This time she collaborated with Timbaland, Pharrell and of course Timberlake. Will this fact entice U.S. radio to put Madonna back onto the airwaves where she belongs? Micheal Alexander Boston Hi Michael, It seems like the magic combination of Madonna, Justin Timberlake and Timbaland is already working. In "4 Minutes'" first three days of radio release, 60 monitored U.S. radio stations played it seven times or more. That includes WIHT Washington, D.C. (29 spins), KHJZ Houston, Texas (29 spins), WKXS Boston (22 spins) and WHTZ New York (19 spins). Next week it will likely debut on the CHR/Top 40 airplay chart in our sister publication Radio & Records. It also has a chance of debuting on The Billboard Hot 100 as well. We'll see if radio stations continue to embrace "4 Minutes" in the coming weeks. It wouldn't be unusual for stations to back off a song after an initial flurry of activity, especially if the song doesn't react well with a station's audience. On a side note, "4 Minutes" will not only be released as a digital download in the coming weeks, but it will also be granted a physical single release in the U.S. The remixes of "4 Minutes," crafted by Tracy Young, Bob Sinclair and Junkie XL, will be released on CD Maxi, 12" vinyl and of course digitally. Madonna's "Hard Candy" album drops April 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtzlplk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Billboard.com: On a side note, "4 Minutes" will not only be released as a digital download in the coming weeks, but it will also be granted a physical single release in the U.S. The remixes of "4 Minutes," crafted by Tracy Young, Bob Sinclair and Junkie XL, will be released on CD Maxi, 12" vinyl and of course digitally. GREAT NEWS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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