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Nessie

Supreme Elitists
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Posts posted by Nessie

  1. 2 hours ago, CzarnaWisnia said:

    I know this is going to seem insane and unacceptable now, but I think this 2014 paper (published during the 2014 crisis) was quite prescient. I think this is what the end result will be, but it will happen through useless and catastrophic warfare.

    Some analysts argue that the best way out of the crisis would be to split Ukraine between east and west

     

    AS RUSSIAN president Vladimir Putin today pledged to use "all means" to protect Russian citizens in the east of Ukraine, the search for a non-military solution gained urgency.

    Over the past week, Russian troops have occupied airports and surrounded Ukrainian military facilities in the Crimea region of Ukraine, where there is an ethnic Russian majority.

    US and European officials insist that Russia should pull out of Crimea immediately; Russia claims it has a right to "defend" the region; and Ukraine has ordered a nationwide mobilisation of troops of in anticipation of combat.

    With the threat of war a real possibility, some experts now argue that the only workable solution is to partition Ukraine, dividing the country between its pro-Russian east and its European-leaning west.

    The case for partition

    Daniel Hannan, writing in the Daily Telegraph, argues that separation is beginning to look "inevitable". That separation may come about in two possible ways: either through "paramilitary groups establishing local supremacy" or as a result of Russian intervention.

    "If a partition is coming anyway," Hannan says, "might it not be better to take ownership of the process: to see that the border is decided peacefully and by referendum rather than by military occupation?"

    If an agreement on partition can come without a war, it may be possible to avoid "another frozen conflict in which families are separated and the economy is wrecked," Hannan argues.

     

    Where will the partition lie?

    A number of commentators – including Max Fisher in the Washington Post – point to two maps that express the intimate relationship between ethnic and linguistic identity and political affiliation in Ukraine. The east of the country identifies as Russian-speaking and voted overwhelmingly for the pro-Russian Yanukovych in the 2010 presidential election. The western part of the country meanwhile, which is largely Ukrainian-speaking, voted for the comparatively pro-European Yulia Tymoshenko.

    image.png

    According to Fisher, the unrest in Ukraine is "a function of [this] demographic divide that Ukrainian politics have never really bridged".

    Writing for TheWeek.co.uk, Crispin Black argues that rather than defending Ukraine's territorial sovereignty, Britain should open the case for partition: "Instead of huffing and puffing about the inviolability of very recently arrived at and clearly unworkable borders in Ukraine, William Hague should use our diplomatic muscle to promote the idea of partition," Black says. "Let the people vote on which bloc they want to belong to. Putin might well agree."

     


    The partitioning is not insane, it had been in the cards among pro-russian ukraine politicians for many years, but the maidan revolution in 2014 literally blew this possibility forcing a unified western government for all of Ukraine, that pro-euro insurgence ignited a civil war in the east against the russian separatists of the major industrial hubs of the Donbass region. This frozen conflict has never been resolved.

    Now with Putin’s army sieging Kiev is hardly an option keeping this capital city as the center of an unified Ukraine. Judging by the course of this war i believe that Lviv would be the capital of West Ukraine and Kharkiv would be the capital of East Ukraine, the city of Kiev would be divided east and west between the Dniepre river.

    If Russia goes all the way to Lviv it would face a completely hostile ground and a bloody guerrila warfare for decades, and if it remotely suceedes in controlling the west of Ukraine it would still have plenty of NATO bases positioned on the border with Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary. It is not logical.

  2. On 3/1/2022 at 9:24 PM, CzarnaWisnia said:

    Then, as history has shown, the CIA and US intelligence agencies have many times over influenced the course of other countries' political destinies through various identifiable means (regime change activities). Ukraine has been in such a way influenced (in 2013 and 2014). I think there's more to know about this situation.


    We are many people who have been pointing out the UN charter for decades now - to no avail. US and its super agressive attack organization NATO have ignored this countless of times.

    This is the problem. When the “good guys” (in lack of a better word) ignore laws, international agreements, and laugh at anyone pointing this out, why anyone would follow it?

    We cannot have a few being able to ignore international laws, because sooner or later everyone will. This is something we should clearly point out.

    Yes, it is a fact that Putin/Russia is clearly ignoring the UN charter by waging a war of agression against a sovereign nation, but the US have also waged wars based on questionable pretexts many times before, varying from ousting governments by arming insurgences or directly bombing and destroying entire countries, killing millions in the name of profit, in fact they are doing it right now in Syria and Iraq for oil, not to mention supporting the medieval Saudi’s in ther illegal war in Yemen.

    Clearly all of this mess is the lack of diplomacy and lack of cooler heads. The mutual respect and somewhat acceptance of each other that existed under the cold war has been exchanged with “we are right, we are the good guys, and now we will do whatever we want” mentality, specially coming from the West. THIS is the core mentality problem.

    Imagine how easy it would have been to solve the Ukraine crisis. Imagine if NATO for once said that there is no plans to make Ukraine a member anytime soon (note: not excluding it, but for the sake of diplomacy stating they do not want this corrupt country as a member for now), after that EU only needed to pick up the phone and say “Hey Ukraine, please stop bombing the residents of the Donbass region, just follow the Minsk agreement you signed in 2015 and then there might be a EU membership in the near future for you!” - that is it. No war. No Russia losing its mind over the threat of NATO military bases on its border. Ukraine apply to enter EU and officialy declare itself military neutral. Problem solved. 40 years ago this is exactly what would have happened because back then diplomacy still existed, there were still cooler calmer heads looking sober at the situation and acting accordingly. Those people have been pushed aside. THIS is the core political problem.

    Mix the two core problems i mention above and now we get the situation in Ukraine. From this perspective it is impossible to not understand Russia/Putin and US/Biden on the matter. But also to be very clear “understand” is not the same as “support”. I do not support this invasion, in my mind with this agression Putin blew the chances of diplomacy, but i can see where it is coming from and the mess we are in that are a direct result of years of neglect for diplomacy and the international rules by the major great powers. This needs to be addressed before its too late.

     

  3. 1 hour ago, CzarnaWisnia said:

    FMeZLNMX0AQ4wvB.jpeg

    Of course negotiations are going to take place "at the barrel of a gun". If Moscow ceases fire there would be no need to negotiate... a ceasefire. How many Ukrainians have to be slaughtered for negotiations to finally be seen as a necessity?

    8 years of civil war in eastern Ukraine, 13,000+ slaughtered by a failed military attempt to retake the separatists cities by force, and no one has noticed? Russia spent 8 years talking about the Minsk agreements signed by Ukraine to grant authonomy for the rebel regions. Where were you all? Where was the world outcry for the massacre that was going on in the east? Do this peoples lives have no value?

  4. 12 minutes ago, promise to try said:

     is this the reason why putin is calling the ukraine government nazis?

    Probably yes it is, since the the Azov battalion is the main branch of the Ukraine military in the east with the task to destroy the separatists enclaves and retake the rebel cities by force. This was the main force on the ground till yesterday. Now after the Russia invasion this battalion has likely been liquidated in the battlefield, there hasnt been any reports of the battles in the east yet.

  5. 1 minute ago, air1975 said:

     

    The holocaust was used as an example. Let me rephrase:

    Lets say a man kills all the people in the neighboring house. If you say "Well, I can understand his reasons. The neighbors were gossiping about him. One of the neighbors was flirting with his wife etc etc", and you do not condemn the murder - then you are in a way, justifying it and condoning it.


    We are talking about Putin INVADING a sovereign country in 2022, leading to unfathomable death, destruction, displacement and misery. You can certainly examine his rationale but yes, you SHOULD denounce it. Otherwise, as I said before - it does appear you are justifying his invasion and you are agreeing with it. 

    The holocaust was a genocide policy of entire segments of the enslaved population, it was rooted in the nazi ideology from the very beggining. It is not in itself motivated by the war, it was officialy conducted by the Nazi state precisely as Hitler intended it to be on Mein Kampf.

    This agression from Putin is what it is: a military invasion of a country with the clear goal to dominate its policital course. We can only talk about genocide if a policy of genocide is officialy commited on behalf of the agressor, which is not the case.

  6. The attempts to associate this Putin adventurism to Hitler blitz is everywhere in the western media, a farcry from the factual reality, ignoring that Ukraine itself has a whole battalion bearing nazi insigneas (Azov battalion) which yearly hosts a military parade of torch marchs in the center of Kiev to celebrate the memory of a very well know WW2 nazi colaborator.

     

    F80EB3DF-B7B1-40D4-96A1-1B1D9FC429CE.jpeg

    9675C821-539F-482A-AFF4-196FDFD3E5F6.jpeg

    56D27E03-2B1F-4C6C-96C2-B5123285A3D6.jpeg

  7. 6 hours ago, air1975 said:

    Just so you don't throw dirt under the rug - let me ask you specifically. What are YOUR thoughts about Putin's decision to invade Ukraine? Do you agree with it? Do you think its wrong?

    Of course it is wrong. As i said many posts earlier in this thread the decision of Putin to occupy the entire Ukraine country is insane and this would mean that he has lost his mind. In the matter of fact i posted this here just minutes before the confirmed reports of the invasion began coming in. What we are debating here is the reasons why he made that decision, which isn’t simply a land grab without a complex underlined background, many things happened before he made the decision to attack Ukraine.

  8. 20 minutes ago, elijah said:

    Again shifting the discussion I see. Ukraine is the theme here. If u want to discuss how evil US has been since ww2, open another topic. And really linking 70ties Nixon to 2022 Putin? Really? We are talking about Europe here and not some local war, but one of the nuclear powers invading its neighbour.

    As usual throwing dust under the rug, in the typical american fashion ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’. Whatever, in this UScentric world order nothing of those agressions are ever adressed anyway, the West will keep the inflamatory speech against this Putin agression as if they are some kind of untouchable saints, nevermind the atrocious crimes that destroyed many countries all over the world. ‘Boots on the ground’ (an euphemism expression for invasion) was coined precisely by the same people that are now outraged by Putin agression.

  9. 26 minutes ago, elijah said:

    Again, the fact that US bombed a country doesn't excuse Putin bombing Ukraine. Please stay on the subject: Ukraine. As for Maidan riots: I do not think it was caused by US. I think not ratifying EU Association agreement was enough reason for the protests. Ukraine borders several EU states: Ukrainians are seeing that the EU countries are better off than Ukraine since joining EU. Half of Ukraine lives in EU. I d say wanting better economic life is a reason enough for those protests. Were they aided by US/EU? Sure. But I d really wanna see the logic to equate today RU aggression to Maidan protests. Its laughable. I have no time to check your lists, but if the examples are like Maidan protests... Well, its a joke list I guess?

    It is no joke to bomb countries, any country, no matter whatever political sphere you are part of. The point is the absolutely hypocrisy of the so called guardians of “freedom” pointing fingers, and a world outcry for the same thing they have been doing to other defenseless countries for the past 70 years.

    If Putin should legally respond for this agression, should Obama be tried for crimes against humanity for Yemen, Somalia, Lybia, Irak, Afghanistan? Nixon for Vietnam? Carter and Reagan for Iran, Salvador, Nicaragua? Clinton for Yugoslavia?

  10. 17 minutes ago, ULIZOS said:

    Not saying it's right, but ya'll mad at Russia for doing what the US and its loser friends do every day in every country in the world

    Here is the list:


    1948-1960 - Italy
    1949 Syria
    1949--1953 Albania
    1953 Iran
    1954 Guatemala
    1957-1958 Indonesia
    1959+ Cuba, Cambodia
    1960 Congo
    1961 Dominican
    1963 Vietnam
    1964 Brazil
    1965-66 Indonesia
    1971 Bolivia
    1970-73 Chile, Irak
    1976 Argentine
    1979 Salvador, Lebanon
    1979-89 Afghanistan
    1980-82 Angola
    1983 Grenada
    1981-87 Nicaragua, Lybia
    1989 Panama
    1989 Chad
    1990-91 Irak I
    1993 Somalia
    1995 Yugoslavia (the Lewinski distraction)
    2001 Afghanistan
    2003 Irak II
    2001-2014 Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Mauritius, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Algeria, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania. Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia, Mali, Philippines, Kyrgyztan, 
    2009 Colombia
    2011 Lybia
    2013-14 ISIS
    2014 Ukraine - Maidan Revolution
    2019 Iran - Iranian general Soleimani
    2021 Mozambique


    And more to come!

  11. 29 minutes ago, lex92 said:

    And? It's war. Ukraine needs to defend itself. Stupid enough that Germany once again in its moral bubble refuses to send weapons. People in Ukraine don't feel supported by Germany.

    Same with Swift. Germany was the state to veto sanctioning Russia by excluding Russia from Swift-System, because they fear that the restrictions would be too hard for Germany. My god, they have to wake up. This is a war against the whole western order.

    If you throw weapons to this country that is waging a civil war you can bet that these weapons are being deployed in the eastern Ukraine to retake the separatists regions by force instead of self defense. 8 years of civil war, 13,000 people dead, most civilians, and not a single word in the West. Do you know what the Minsk agreement signed by Ukraine underlined? That those rebel regions were supposed to be granted authonomy. And what Kiev did? Sent neo nazis thugs to shell the rebel cities. That is what these weapons are being used for.

  12. Just now, runa said:

    Do you really believe all the shit you post on this forum? Just asking because every time I always think you’re joking. 
    Fuel to the fire? It’s David against Goliath. If you don’t get that, I mean, where should we start to enlighten your lantern?

    Should i even care to respond to you in the same manner that you address me and others on this thread? I guess not. You are an uneducated troll that just don’t deserve a proper response.

  13. 32 minutes ago, elijah said:

    Coup government in Kiev? Really? Where do u get your information? That government was freely elected. As for the Russian speakers in the Baltics, Putin could easily organise the local "governments"  to "attack" the Russians and then he will conveniently have an excuse to send his "peacekeepers". As for NATO: Putin did alot with helping Trump getting elected and thus weakening NATO and the US-EU relations. Its no surprise that at that time Macron and Merkel put up the prospect of creating a real EU army. Because even today Fox News is radiating the rednecks in US how cool Putin is and how insignificant Ukraine is and how its pretty much Russia. But it isn't. 

    Agreement won't be reached. Will Brazil be OK to get part of its territory annexed by say Argentina? Would the Brazilians endorse it?

    It is a coup goverment because in 2014 it deposed by force the previous elected government which was pro-russia. There is no shame to recognize that fact, even the current Ukraine government acknowledges and celebrates that they toppled the previous government with a bloody “dignity revolution” as they call that Maidan revolt. Sadly coups still happens in the world, in this case it was a very graphic coup that they have no shame to admit victory by the use of force to oust former president Viktor Yanukovych.

    As for the rest of your comments, i cannot comment on theories that Russia may or may not plot against the EU, even if it sounds interesting on paper for cold war inspired James Bond movies, until it happens in real life we cannot discuss “what ifs”. If there were the case we would be discussing how the US would react to an enemy force at its doorsteps in the hypothetical event of Canada and Mexico siding with a military alliance leaded by an overseas enemy superpower like Russia or China.

    Anyway, nice discuss with you, at least you are attacking the message, not the messager, unlike a few others in this thread. Good night.

  14. 17 minutes ago, LSD said:

     

    Time is up. The war has began. By tomorrow someone will have to surrender its position on the matter of Donbass dispute, either the Kiev goverment will be forced to aknowledge that they can no more reclain the east territory by force or Moscow will be forced to back down its intentions to create a buffer zone against enemy forces. I bet that even risking severe sanctions from the west, Russia will keep its army there until secures that region even it this war escalates to a general war deep in the central Ukraine territory, either way Russia cannot control a hostile territory outside of Donetsk and Lugansk. If Putin orders a full occupation of the entire Ukraine territory he has lost his mind.

     

  15. 26 minutes ago, elijah said:

    Wait and see if no consequences come out of this second annexation of Ukrainian territory. Do you know that Baltics have like 20-30 percent Russian minority? Do you know that they were part of the Russian empire? Aren’t they in EU? I would hardly be surprised if Putin sends peacekeepers there next.

    Putin will not send his army to a country that is a NATO member to unleash 30 military forces against Russia. He is not that stupid. Thus, as far as we know those baltic states are not shelling russian speakers like the coup goverment in Kiev is doing in the east of Ukraine. There is no reason to intervene in anywhere else besides Donetsk and Lugansk, unless Russia’s army is openly attacked elsewhere. A general war in Ukraine still remains a possibility if an agreement cannot be reach. Time is running out.

  16. 6 hours ago, karbatal said:

    Putin is not going to invade any EU country. What kind of nonsense is that? 
    Really guys get a grip! 

    Don’t mind. It is no use to discuss with these people. They have made up their minds long time ago that evil Russia will “invade” their homes and kidnap their children even if that means World War 3. Putin is the boogymen portrayed by the US press. There is no rational logic behind these thoughts, they do not abide by any reason, even if you present them facts right in the face there is no discussion just bias and hate bandwagon. No complexity, no knowledge of the subject, it is just black and white thinking, good and evil, very simple and very palatable for digest.

  17. 48 minutes ago, Raider of the lost Ark said:

    I was talking about an investment by the German state/government. I could care less if there are German companies involved and will lose their investment in case Nord Stream 2 will never operate. The project itself was always under discussion and in result they should not act surprised now. They are free to send their complaints to Gerhard Schröder at Gazprom. 

    Let’s see how this economic suicide will turn out when very soon Germany and the rest of Europe will have to pay double the price, at least €2,000 per thousand cubic meters of gas, or even more. Germans are pragmatic and they will soon find out that being a client state of the US is pretty darn expensive.

  18. 1 minute ago, Raider of the lost Ark said:

    Germany did not pay anything. Nord Stream 2 is solely financed by Russia. 

    https://amp.dw.com/en/nord-stream-2-the-gas-pipelines-second-power-struggle/a-60613442

    The pipeline belongs to the Russian state-owned company Gazprom and was built with the backing of five European energy firms.

    They are: Austria's OMV, Britain's Shell, France's Engie, Germany's Uniper and the Wintershall unit of BASF.

    The five companies put up around half of the initial investment.

  19. 19 minutes ago, Nonoka said:

    ...For me now, the question is how far Putin is willing to go to see his security demands fulfilled. I highly doubt that even if Ukraine would let go of these separatist territories (and NATO accepts), that Russia would stop there and withdraw its forces. Putin seemed quite unhinged to me in his speech yesterday - talking about how the creation of independent Ukraine should have never happened (so basically denying the legitimacy of Ukrainian state) and that Ukraine could quickly build nuclear weapons to challenge Russia (which is an absolutely outlandish claim, according to pretty much any analysis I've read).

    I'm sorry, but no matter how big the historic heritage Ukraine shares with Russia, his rhetoric yesterday against the country was totally unacceptable and definitely had the tone of war in it. And I don't think Putin has much right to complain how the Ukrainian government is a NATO puppet regime, illegitimate etc. - given that he just recently propped up the dictatorship in Belarus and help them beat down huge protests by society (did people here forget about that?).

    And he didn't just stop at Ukraine - he explicitly talked about how allowing the former Soviet republics to break away was a 'historic mistake' (even though they did so out of free will - ask any Estonian for example what they think about their country's "membership" in the Soviet Union).

    To clarify - I'm under no illusion that NATO, and within them particularly the US, are these big moral defenders of freedom and sovereignty as they like to portray themselves. But the Russian regime under Putin definitely isn't interested in letting its former partner states have an independent future either, that much he made clear yesterday. And whether Russia likes it or not, the majority of Ukrainians today (but also e.g. Georgians, Moldavians) do see their future as part of the EU and NATO (check this out or this) - they do not want to live under a Russian sphere of influence as Belarussians for example are forced to.

    I don't know where this is going to end, but again, speaking as a Hungarian-Romanian, I am quite happy atm that both countries are inside NATO and EU and with that, somewhat safe and sound from an economic and security perspective...I don't see this conflict ending anytime soon.

     

    What the west fails to understand is that Ukraine is not a unified country, millions of people in the east of Ukraine do not want to be part of this Ukraine alliance with EU and NATO, those people speak russian as their mother language and are effectivelly cut out from Ukraine since 2014 when they did not accept the coup imposed on them during the Maidan protests, if they were happy with it they would never have declared those republics independence and fight for its defense during the Ukraine attempts to retake military control of those areas. They rather die than be in this country where they are seen as subcitizens. It is no wonder why they were celebrating yesterday.

  20. 46 minutes ago, dollhouse said:

    Nordic Stream pipeline has been put to hold because of Putins actions

    Yes, they did suspend as expected, but I believe that Germany is doing this just for the sake of doing something amist this events, but in the long run Germany will eventually lift this suspension and the Nord Stream 2 will operate as planned. This gas pipeline was a huge investment on their part and for now they must get in line with the sanctions bandwagon from the west, but make no mistake Germany has made clear that it has its own interests and are not exactly in the same page with the US and UK.

  21. 34 minutes ago, karbatal said:

    What worries about this is that two psycho senile men have the buttons to nuke us all. Frankly I doubt Russian people is supporting this mess either. Anybody knows if the Russian wax face has any support? 

    In 2014 the russian people demonstrated overwhelming support for the reunification of Crimea with Russia, Putin really was at the top of his game, now cut years later i don’t know, it seems the russian people just don’t really care much about what is going on in Ukraine.

  22. 51 minutes ago, runa said:

    But read carefully what some people post here and you’ll realize than yes, they think "poor putin".

    If you read carefully you will just learn some facts that are being deliberately omitted by the western media who simplifies this conflict as a black and white, good and evil struggle.

    This situation is not about having pity, Putin is the leader of that country and it is making his intentions very clear, he is using his army on the border to force an agreement, if this will work we will find out very soon.

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