elijah
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French Election Opens Up as Marine Le Pen Surges
President Emmanuel Macron’s belated entry into the campaign and his focus on Ukraine have left him vulnerable to a strong challenge from the right.
Credit...Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times
By Roger Cohen
PARIS — At last, Emmanuel Macron stepped forth. The French president entered a vast arena this weekend, plunged into darkness and lit only by spotlights and glow sticks, before a crowd of 30,000 supporters in a domed stadium in the Paris suburbs.
It was a highly choreographed appearance — his first campaign rally for an election now less than a week away — with something of the air of a rock concert. But Mr. Macron had come to sound an alarm.
Do not think “it’s all decided, that it’s all going to go well,” he told the crowd, a belated acknowledgment that a presidential election that had seemed almost certain to return him to power is suddenly wide open.
Credit...Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times
The diplomatic attempt to end the war in Ukraine has been time-consuming for Mr. Macron, so much so that he has had little time for the French election, only to awaken to the growing danger that France could lurch to the anti-immigrant right, with its Moscow-friendly politics and its skepticism of NATO.
The most recent poll from the respected Ifop-Fiducial groupshowed Ms. Le Pen gaining 21.5 percent of the vote in the first round of voting next Sunday, almost double the vote share of the fading extreme-right upstart Éric Zemmour, with 11 percent, and closing the gap on Mr. Macron with 28 percent. The two leading candidates go through to a runoff on April 24.
Credit...Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times
More worrying for Mr. Macron, the poll suggested he would edge Ms. Le Pen by just 53.5 percent to 46.5 percent in the second round. In the last presidential election, in 2017, Mr. Macron trounced Ms. Le Pen by 66.1 percent to 33.9 percent in the runoff.
“It’s an illusion that this election is won for Mr. Macron,” said Nicolas Tenzer, an author who teaches political science at Sciences Po university. “With a high abstention rate, which is possible, and the level of hatred toward the president among some people, there could be a real surprise. The idea that Le Pen wins is not impossible.”
Édouard Philippe, a former prime minister in Mr. Macron’s government, warned this past week that “of course Ms. Le Pen can win.”
Credit...Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times
This notion would have seemed ridiculous a month ago. Ms. Le Pen looked like a has-been after trying and failing in 2012 and 2017. Mr. Zemmour, a glib anti-immigrant TV pundit turned politician with more than a touch of Donald Trump about him, had upstaged her on the right of the political spectrum by suggesting that Islam and France were incompatible.
Now, however, Mr. Zemmour’s campaign appears to be sinking in a welter of bombast, as Ms. Le Pen, who said last year that “Ukraine belongs to Russia’s sphere of influence,” reaps the benefits of her milquetoast makeover.
Mr. Zemmour may in the end have done Ms. Le Pen a service. By outflanking her on the right, by becoming the go-to candidate for outright xenophobia, he has helped the candidate of the National Rally (formerly the National Front) in her “banalization” quest — the attempt to gain legitimacy and look more “presidential” by becoming part of the French political mainstream.
Mr. Macron has fallen two or three percentage points in polls over the past week, increasingly criticized for his refusal to debate other candidates and his general air of having more important matters on his mind, like war and peace in Europe, than the laborious machinations of French democracy.
A front-page cartoon in the daily newspaper Le Monde last week showed Mr. Macron clutching his cellphone and turning away from the crowd at a rally. “Vladimir, I’m just finishing with this chore and I’ll call you back,” he says.
Credit...Jeremias Gonzalez/Associated Press
With a colorless prime minister in Jean Castex — Mr. Macron has tended to be wary of anyone who might impinge on his aura — there have been few other compelling political figures able to carry the president’s campaign in his absence. His centrist political party, La République en Marche, has gained no traction in municipal and regional politics. It is widely viewed as a mere vessel for Mr. Macron’s agenda.
His government’s wide use of consulting firms, including McKinsey — involving spending of more than $1.1 billion, some of it on the best ways to confront Covid-19 — has also led to a wave of criticism of Mr. Macron in recent days. A former banker, Mr. Macron has often been attacked as “the president of the rich” in a country with deeply ambivalent feelings about wealth and capitalism.
Still, Mr. Macron has proved adept at occupying the entire central spectrum of French politics through his insistence that freeing up the economy is compatible with maintaining, and even increasing, the French state’s role in social protection. Prominent figures of the center-left and center-right attended his rally on Saturday.
Over the course of the past five years, he has shown both faces of his politics, first simplifying the labyrinthine labor code and spurring a start-up business culture, then adopting a policy of “whatever it costs” to save people’s livelihoods during the coronavirus pandemic. His handling of that crisis, after a slow start, is widely viewed as successful.
“He absolutely proved up to the task,” Mr. Tenzer said.
Credit...Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times
Still, much of the left feels betrayed by his policies, whether on the environment, the economy or the place of Islam in French society, and Mr. Macron was at pains on Saturday to counter the view that his heart lies on the right. Citing investments in education, promising to raise minimum pensions and give a tax-free bonus to employees this summer, Mr. Macron proclaimed his concern for those whose salaries vanish in “gasoline, bills, rents.”
It felt like catch-up time after Mr. Macron had judged that his image as a statesman-peacemaker would be enough to ensure him a second term. Vincent Martigny, a professor of political science at the University of Nice, said of Mr. Macron that “his choice to remain head of state until the end prevented him from becoming a real candidate.”
The worrying scenario for Mr. Macron is that Mr. Zemmour’s vote would go to Ms. Le Pen in a runoff, and that she would be further bolstered by the wide section of the left that feels betrayed or just viscerally hostile toward the president, as well as by some center-right voters for whom immigration is a core issue.
Credit...Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times
On the president’s first campaign foray into the provinces, a visit to Dijon last week where he spent time in a working-class area, accompanied by the socialist mayor, Mr. Macron offered this explanation of his sometimes seesawing policies: “When you walk you need two legs. One on the left, and one on the right. And you have to place one after the other in order to advance.”
It was the sort of clever phrase that infuriates Mr. Macron’s opponents, leaving them unsure what angle to attack him from.
Ms. Le Pen has focused relentlessly on economic issues, promising to reduce gas and electricity prices, tax the hiring of foreign employees to favor nationals, preserve the 35-hour week and maintain the retirement age at 62, whereas Mr. Macron wants to raise it to 65.
Mr. Macron has warned that the French will have to “work harder,” a phrase dear to the former center-right president Nicolas Sarkozy, and so a means to lure Mr. Sarkozy’s faithful followers to the Macron camp.
Credit...Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times
If Ms. Le Pen has wanted to appear a softened politician, she is by no means as transformed from the anti-immigrant zealot she was as she likes to suggest. Her program includes a plan to hold a referendum that would lead to a change in the Constitution that would bar policies that lead to “the installation on national territory of a number of foreigners so large that it would change the composition and identity of the French people.”
“France, land of immigration, is finished,” she said in February. She also said the French must not allow their country to “be buried under the veil of multiculturalism.” In September 2021, she declared: “French delinquents in prison, foreigners on a plane!”
I went to a rally held by Marine Le Pen, the far-right French presidential candidate who is rising in the polls.
Here’s what I heard
The working-class vote is essentially split between Ms. Le Pen and the hard-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has also been gaining ground in recent polls as the electorate begins to focus on what vote would be most effective in propelling a candidate into the second round. But at around 15 percent, Mr. Mélenchon appears to be well adrift still from Ms. Le Pen in the race for the runoff.
ImageCredit...Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA, via Shutterstock
The French left has proved chronically split to the point of near political irrelevance for the first time since the Fifth Republic’s foundation in 1958. The Socialist Party, whose candidate François Hollande won the 2012 election and governed until 2017, has collapsed, with just 1.5 percent of the vote in the Ifop-Fiducial poll.
Although Ms. Le Pen has tried to distance herself a little from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, whom she met in Moscow in 2017, and whose policies she had backed until the war in Ukraine, she remains allergic to hard-line measures toward Russia. A victory by her would threaten European unity, alarm French allies from Washington to Warsaw, and confront the European Union with its biggest crisis since Brexit.
“Do we want to die?” she asked in a recent television debate, when asked if France should cut off oil and gas imports from Russia. “Economically, we would die!”
She added: “We have to think of our people.”
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I really couldn't watch more that 3 seconds of the video. This atrocity can not go unpunished. He must face the Hague.
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27 minutes ago, Cyber-Raga said:
Yeah I fear so too. Whatever is done in the end, I hope our governments diversify the energy sources in the future so that this hot mess won’t happen again.
Nuclear is the obvious near future solution. France already back down and would work on over 20 reactors. Bulgaria and Greece are in talks for a new reactor in Bulgaria. However the future is in solar/wind, but obv not the near future. Where the energy is not in is the RU gas. At least until Putin is jailed in Hague or killed. But even then Europe must think twice and try NOT to embolden RU once again.
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Dumb had 30ty smtp I think. Obviously the recent US presidents do not get the needed approval ratings.
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1 minute ago, Gaudet said:
Frankly sir or whatever you are, you don't get and see anything at all. Clearly. It takes a brain to "get and see". Quit with your passive aggressive tone twisting people's words, nothing of the sort was said above. I did not say it is Biden's fault, not at all, yet you deliberately put words into people's mouths according to your own agenda. Enough.
My agenda??? It feels like you have poorly veiled agenda and my agenda is that I m tired of ppl like u calling the black white. But whatevs
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5 hours ago, Gaudet said:
They are all insane, every single one of these so called "leaders". We are ruled by a bunch of incompetent, undiplomatic, irresponsible, useless, selfish cretins. Hardly a single one to be proud of.
Furthermore, with the leader of the free world (or rather leader of the decaying free world) making off-script silly remarks about a certain dictator right now when a light at the end of the tunnels seems to be appearing with negotiations thus possible end to this war, it takes a second for said silly remarks to escalate a situation into a global disaster no sane person would really want to experience. Referring to senile Biden's remarks of course - granted that what he has expressed live on TV is what many of us most likely feel and think about Putzin, though in his position as a politician and president of the U.S. he should be really careful about what his disconnected tongue lets out. Or rather: whoever puts the autopilot on him should ensure that gassy Joe strictly adheres to his given script and his script only.
Biden is a diplomatic liability. He’s playing into Putin’s hands | Simon Jenkins | The Guardian
May this fuckery war end soon.
Yes, it’s Biden s fault : he pressed the angel to invade and he put his hand on the red botton. We get it and we see you
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13 hours ago, zephyralexxx said:
Beautiful... and that music
Proud of you!
it was powerful and magnificent, darling
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17 minutes ago, karbatal said:
The thing is if Ukrainians get back Crimea in this war. Russian army seems to be far more obsolete than expected.
I don't see this happening unfortunately. I hope they chase them out of Donetsk and Luhansk, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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19 minutes ago, karbatal said:
He can’t. That’s what makes him now extremely dangerous. He’s embarrassing himself to the highest level and he perfectly knows that Russia is being humiliated.
Now he says his new goal is to secure Dombas? He’s going to lose Crimea for sure too. What an incredibly bad strategist he turned out to be.
Just wait. He is incredibly evil and he was been very lucky sofar. Hopefully you are right and Cremea would be returned to Ukraine, but I would not bet on it unfortunately. Even if he is killed or deposed, I dont see his successor giving back Cremea... Unless its Navalny eventually.
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3 hours ago, Gaudet said:
Well, the EU signed a deal with the U.S. to get LNG supply from them, very simply put, in order to shield away from Russia's supply of gas to Europe.
Coincidence? Uncle Scrooge dollar sign eyes spring to mind!
China isn't the only good old Russia's partner. India is another big one. Neither of those two countries have openly declared their standing with Russia, but they do actually support it. Both China and India have major economic interest and trading partnerships with Russia. And to China this war is very convenient.
If you look at the countries who abstained and those who basically voted in favor of Russia a couple of weeks ago during UN council meetings, that shall give you a broad indication of who are the open and the do not so open yet cautious allies of Russia.
In the end, the average common people, the innocents, are always the ones suffering the consequence of some big dickhead convinced that his dick is bigger than anyone else's dick, hence huge weapons use against others, ICBM threats, and all that warfare shit.
Putin himself might be fucked over by his own people: coup.
Well no matter if money or not are involved, what do you actually expect Europeans to do? To buy RU gas, which would fund the war on an independent European nation? Because some of us understand that the next one could be anyone, including an EU and NATO member. Until RU sees itself as part of Europe, no good things are coming to them (and to us hopefully in smaller amount) unfortunately. But we have no choice in the matter at least until we are sure that Putin is gone and something similar is NOT coming after him. Maybe if Navalny takes over, it could be different... This hybrid war/ this opposition towards the West must stop. Ru must accept it has no alternative to offer, compared to the West, which has somewhat soft power and accept that their biggest achievements in arts/culture/architecture are due to European influence.
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Ukrainian troops take back parts of Kherson from Russian forces: US
https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/ukrainian-troops-take-back-parts-of-kherson-from-russian-forces-us/
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Aeral video of yesterday peaceful march in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression, held in Sofia, Bulgaria, late yesterday (24.03.2022). More than 10000 people are said to have attended, including me
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4 hours ago, karbatal said:
I’m amazed that nobody comments on the super botoxed face of Biden. If he were a woman it would be a fest for the press
Compared to Putin, he looks amazing.
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4 hours ago, runa said:
The only romanticized idea is to think Putin really wants to negotiate. THAT is what is ROMANTIC.
After 1 month of war, it’s pretty clear that’s not what he wants and he has other things in mind. His ideas of negotiations are: here is what I want, you surrender and give it to me or we’ll keep attack you. It’s all smoke and mirror.So yes, I get why they fight for the country and stand for their beliefs.
Exactly. Putler is a bully, who demands all that he wants. The only language he understand is force.
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21 minutes ago, Raider of the lost Ark said:
I'm not quite clear where Russia wants to go. Let's assume they "win" this war, what will happen then? It is pretty clear that Russia has become a persona non grata of the so called west. The west will not do any business with Russia anymore. What does Russia has to offer anyway except for natural gas, oil and some minerals? And all western countries that import oil and gas from Russia are shifting to other producers and push for renewables. In a few years Russia will no longer have any income from those sources. Russia will be pretty f*cked considering that gas and oil sales make up for the biggest part of the Russian household. By far. Of course, there is still China. Well, only if Russia wants to become a Chinese "colony". Russia may take a closer look at Africa and some of its nations that are already "enjoying" investment and cooperation from China. At this very moment Putin is turning Russia in a 3rd World country.
He DOESNT care about Russia. He wants to rule till he dies. He didn't make Russia prosperous, so his only way to gain support is to shift the attention of the Russians to other topics: wars (Georgia, Cremea, Ukraine), gays etc. That is combined with 24/7 antiWestern propaganda, painting the West as the enemy and Russia as the "encircled" tower. However, in the end, Russia would be killed by Putler and/or China, not the West of course.
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45 minutes ago, dollhouse said:
Nah, i think he will try nucklear bomb to Kiev
Thats horrid and unfortunately VERY MUCH in his style
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58 minutes ago, karbatal said:
Same with the rest of the EU. I’ve read many Twitter comments from journalism friends clutching their pearls because several Russian outlets will be blocked in the EU. It’s pretty clear they have no idea what a war is and right now the EU is in the middle of an economic and information war with Russia.
Not to mention I have stressed that Russia has been at a hybrid information war with the West (EU, USA, UK, AUS, CAN etc.) since at least 2014, emboldening neonazis, eroding the faith of the not so well educated people in the states institutions of the respective state and practically dividing the western states from within. That hybrid war has had spectacular success in Eastern Europe, especially in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic. Practically there are STILL many LOCAL newslets with antiEU rhetoric/proPutin right under EU's nose, directly financed by Putin. He has invested ALOT after Cremea annexation in buying western politicians and media in trying to sow divisions. I am sure that he was encouraged financially Brexit, Trump, Catalunia "referendums", yellow vests in France etc. The more I think about it, the more I get that he has been VERY SUCCESSFUL at any of his endeavours, which makes me very very very scared for Ukraine and Europe in general.
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4 hours ago, CzarnaWisnia said:
"The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, announced this Sunday that during the current martial law the activity of several political parties is suspended, due to the large-scale war waged by the Russian Federation and the links of some of them with this country. In a video released this morning on the Ukrainian presidency's website, Zelenzki reported that the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine decided to suspend the activity of [the principal opposition party] “Opposition Platform - For Life”, “Sharia Party”, “Our”, “Opposition Bloc”, “Left Opposition”, “Union of Left Forces”, “State”,” Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine”. “Socialist Party”, “Socialists” and “Bloc of Vladimir Saldo”, among others."
https://www.infobae.com/en/2022/03/20/zelenski-suspends-multi-party-activity-during-martial-law/
Its logical. I dont see why you always try to paint Ukraine as "Nazi" while lowkey jerking Putler. Its disgusting
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5 hours ago, Geiger83 said:
With the Ukraine resisting so much Putin is loosing face and that is what makes him really dangerous. I hope I am wrong though
You are not wrong unfortunately. I feel sick, because Putler seems to have changed his course from fast war into slow piece by piece very distructive war and they try to take away all of Ukraine blacksea coast.
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very interesting documentary.
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7 minutes ago, air1975 said:
Holy shit. That is actually kind of creepy how accurate this person's predictions were. It's quite something.
Uou! I m shook!
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A Russian Orthodox church in Amsterdam has announced it is to split with the Moscow patriarchate, in the first known instance of a western-based church cutting ties over the invasion of Ukraine.
“The clergy unanimously announced that it is no longer possible for them to function within the Moscow patriarchate and provide a spiritually safe environment for our faithful,” the clergy said in a statement posted on its website. “This decision is extremely painful and difficult for all concerned.”
The head of the Russian Orthodox church, Patriarch Kirill, a trusted ally of Vladimir Putin, has declined to condemn the Kremlin’s decision to invade its neighbour, referring to Russia’s opponents in Ukraine as “evil forces”. In a Sunday sermon last week he also said gay pride parades organised in the west were part of the reason for the war in Ukraine.
The statement said the Russian Orthodox parish of Saint Nicholas of Myra had asked the Russian archbishop of the diocese of the Netherlands, who is based in The Hague, to grant the church “canonical dismissal”.
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5 hours ago, CzarnaWisnia said:
I don't believe Russia would want to conquer any non-Russian speaking territory. Eastern Ukraine is largely Russian-speaking and ethnically Russian. That's not the case at all of Moldavia, for instance. And as mentioned above, this kind of invasion takes a lot of resources.
However those Russian speaking Ukrainians neither feel Russian nor want to be ruled by a mad zar. So the people in Ukraine simply wanna be left alone. But I guess no one told this to Putler
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3 hours ago, CzarnaWisnia said:
I don't believe that for a second. That's inflammatory speech to push the West to intervene militarily with more intensity than it now does.
Well you didn’t believe he would “liberate” Ukraine. Still he did. He would be emboldened if he “wins” ( I put it in quotes, because he has only won the resentment of the vast majority of the world, but I mean if he takes over the country). He would definitely move to Moldova and/or Georgia.
French elections - Macron re-elected
in Politics and World Events
Posted
In light of Orban and Vuchich (proRussian puppets) wins, a win for Le Pen in France would be a huge blow to the West and EU. Judging by the recent polls, Le Pen (who was at one point directly financed by Putin) could very much win the presidency and as a result kill the EU - at least in its present form. The salope would hand over Europe to her greatest pal. In that sense, I really, really want Macron to have a huge victory. Let us remember that Putin organised the yellow vest protests just to spite him. Macron has been the leading force/voice of Europe, especially after Merkel who's decisions come back to haunt us. A EUcentric France is vital for Europe at this very moment so hopefully gorgeous and sexy Macron is reelected.